Hi everyone! I've been trying my luck at previewing the MLB season for a few years now, trying to take a stab at how teams will fare, which players will outperform or underperform expectations, and who will be taking home the hardware - both individually and as a team - come the end of the year. I've always published my NL predictions on one day and my AL predictions shortly after, but last year I decided that the preview should be a 3-part series, the first part of which isn't preview at all! In short, if I go making predictions, I at least ought to check how well I did last year before asking you to view my picks with any level of confidence.
As a review of my review:
For the 2011 season, my mean error on predicted # of wins was 9, and median was 7.
For the 2012 season, my mean error on predicted # of wins was 9.7, and median was 9.
Drumroll:
For the 2013 season, my mean error on predicted # of wins was 7.7, and median was 7.
Basically, I'm getting smarter. A few comparisons, in increasing order of how much I respect the publication:
For 2013, Robert Knapel at Bleacher Report had a mean error of 8.3 and median of 7.
For 2013, Sports Illustrated's Baseball Preview had a mean error of 7.3 and median of 5.
For 2013, Grantland's Jonah Keri had a mean error of 6.7 and median of 6.
I'll take that. Seeing as I'm, you know, a full-time student, and also lazy, I'll call my 2013 unspectacular but respectable, and go ahead and predict I'll be even better this year.
Like last year, I'll go through division-by-division, letting you know where I effed up, where I feel I was particularly clairvoyant, and what should have been obvious in hindsight. After that, we'll take a look at how I did forecasting the awards.
NL EAST
Braves: 96-66, predicted 89-73
Nationals: 86-76, predicted 96-66
Mets: 74-88, predicted 74-88
Phillies: 73-89, predicted 83-79
Marlins: 62-100, predicted 61-101
This is my "home division," as it were, being a Phillies fan, and was one of the two that I clearly did better than the experts on. My 96 wins for the Nationals were actually fewer than most people were picking (I saw 100+), and I was able to leverage some good old hometown pessimism into a Phillies pick that was more in line with reality than expectation. I had hoped, at least, that Giancarlo Stanton would be as much of a bright spot for the Marlins as many were predicting. I ventured .280/40/120. Instead, he hit .249/24/62 and missed 46 games due to injuries. One more season of getting banged up and we'll have to put him in the "injury prone" box. That would be really sad for all of baseball.
NL CENTRAL
Cardinals: 97-65, predicted 88-74
Pirates: 94-68, predicted 72-90
Reds: 90-72, predicted 93-69
Brewers: 74-88, predicted 85-77
Cubs: 66-96, predicted 71-91
When I made my NL Central picks, I was not as optimistic about the Pirates as most people. That turned out to be a big, big mistake. No one had them in the 90s, but I saw a lot of 82s and 85s and so, and that struck me as generous. Instead, McCutchen snagged an MVP award that he definitely deserved, Starling Marte established himself as a force for a long time to come, Russell Martin and A.J. Burnett each put up their best season since their pre-Yankee years, and the bullpen performed at a ridiculous level. I don't think anything else was particularly ill-informed. Meh, probably the Brewers' pick. I've always overrated them, for some reason.
NL WEST
Dodgers: 92-70, predicted 92-70
Diamondbacks: 81-81, predicted 84-78
Giants: 76-86, predicted 86-76
Padres: 76-86, predicted 67-95
Rockies: 74-88, predicted 77-85
The Dodgers finished with the record I predicted, although if you had asked me about the trajectory of their season, I don't think I would've given you a 40-8 stretch. I tried to tell people that the World Series-defending Giants wouldn't be heading back to the playoffs, but no one listened, projecting them for 92 and 94 and 97 wins. They just didn't have that much talent. Nothing else in this division was particularly exciting, although the Padres showed flashes of young development a little earlier than I thought they might. They should continue to build.
AL EAST
Red Sox: 97-65, predicted 87-75
Rays: 91-71, predicted 90-72
Yankees: 85-77, predicted 83-79
Orioles: 85-77, predicted 73-89
Blue Jays: 74-88, predicted 86-76
Believe it or not, with all those misses by 10+, this is actually the other division where I beat most experts. The highest predicted win total I saw for the Red Sox was 82, but this is the other side of the Giants coin: they were just far too talented to be a .500 team. Everyone either said "the Yankees will be the Yankees," or went all doom and gloom on them, meaning every other prediction was off by 10 or so in one direction or the other. Once again, the Orioles continued to produce with Five Guys Burgers and Fries as their starting rotation, and the Blue Jays (who I was more pessimistic on at 86 wins than most writers, who predicted them to win the division) proved that if you ship a core of losers from Miami to Toronto, you'll just end up with a bunch of Canadian losers.
AL CENTRAL
Tigers: 93-69, predicted 95-67
Indians: 92-70, predicted 73-89
Royals: 86-76, predicted 80-82
Twins: 66-96, predicted 64-98
White Sox: 63-99, predicted 83-79
We all knew the Tigers were going to be really good, and the Twins were going to be really bad. But if you had asked me which of the other three teams would push the Tigers for the division all year, I would've guess the Indians fifth. What no one accounted for was a top 5 rotation for Cleveland, with Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Masterson, Scott Kazmir, and the loved-by-SABR-nerds-duo of Danny Salazar and Corey Kluber all seeming to outperform expectations. Look for a long discussion of Salazar in the AL Predictions. The Royals finally got a winning record in the one season I didn't pick them to have a winning record in.
AL WEST
Athletics: 96-66, predicted 83-79
Rangers: 91-71, predicted 91-71
Angels: 78-84, predicted 94-68
Mariners: 71-91, predicted 74-88
Astros: 51-111, predicted 54-108
Really whiffed on the Athletics (who I expected to fall, not rise, after their surprising run to the playoffs in 2012) and the Angels (who, for the second season in a row, majorly disappointed). At least I nailed the Rangers on the head. And let's take a moment to consider that I was among the most optimistic about the Astros. I saw predictions as low as 44-118. Yikes.
AWARDS
NL MVP
1. Troy Tulowitzki - When I picked him for MVP, I said "if he's healthy. Well, Tulo was back to his popping self when he was healthy, and snagged .312/25/82. He only played in 126 games, though. This was still good enough for 17th in the MVP voting. If he had been healthy enough to play in 150, you're looking at .312/30/99. Those are real MVP numbers, and would have put him 3rd to 5th in last year's race. When I picked him for MVP, I said "if he's healthy.
2. Joey Votto - Sixth in MVP voting. Playing all 162 games for the first time in his career, Votto continued to be more valuable to his team than he appeared. Old-school MVP voters look at .305/24/73 from a 1B and just don't see that as MVP numbers, but more are coming to realize that his .435 OBP is truly an MVP number.
3. Jason Heyward - Didn't receive votes. We all thought this would be the year Heyward exploded, but his joints actually did most of the exploding. Only played in 104 games. Rumor has it that Atlanta offered Freeman's 8/110 to Heyward first, but Heyward feels that if he can stay healthy a whole season that offer will appear a mere pittance compared to what teams will be lining up to give him. .254/14/38 in two thirds of a season.
4. Giancarlo Stanton - see above. Again, hurt. Man.
5. Ryan Braun - hahahahahahahaha. Sigh.
AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera - I mean, come on. The best hitter in the game. .348/44/137 - actually a better offensive line than his 2012 MVP campaign - and he was fighting a core injury for the last month. Do yourself a favor: go to fangraphs, and type "Miguel Cabrera inside pitches." There are pitches that would actually hit some batters that Cabrera smashes into the bleachers.
2. Prince Fielder - Didn't get votes. I expected that Fielder would be able to capitalize on Cabrera's success. Instead, he had a terrible year by his standards, his worst since 2006, and put up a career-low 25 HRs. .279/25/106, with plummeting peripherals, isn't good enough for a no-defense-no-speed 1B who really should be DHing.
3. Dustin Pedroia - Again, I was higher on the Red Sox than most, and felt Pedroia would lead the charge. He finished 7th in MVP voting (probably a little higher than he deserved, boosted by the Red Sox regular season success), getting back above 5 WAR and playing 160 games for the first time in his career. .301/9/84 is pretty damn good from a 5'8" second baseman.
4. Robinson Cano - 5th in MVP voting. That 2013 wasn't spectacular by Cano's standards doesn't mean that it wasn't spectacular. In fact, it means the most spectacular thing about him is his ridiculous consistency. In the last 7 years, he's missed a total of 14 games. He's gone 5 straight years with 25+ HRs. And now he appears to be playing +, or at least run-neutral, defense, which was something he had to learn over the first few years of his career. Did he deserve 10 years and $240 million? No. But he's as close to deserving as almost anyone not named Trout or Cabrera.
5. Adam Jones - 13th in MVP voting. Jones was just good-not-great, continuing to be the kind of guy that's more valuable in fantasy (because he does everything fantasy cares about pretty well) than in real life (because he virtually never walks and is pretty bad in CF, despite those really incredibly undeserved Gold Gloves he earned).
NL Cy Young
1. Zack Greinke - Ended up in 8th place, boosted by the Dodgers' high-profile success and great offense even though he actually had his worst statistical season since 2010 or 2007, depending on how you look at it. The measurables were quite good - 15-4, 2.63 ERA - but his strikeout rate plummeted and his strand rate was unrepeatably high.
2. Stephen Strasburg - Hit something of a sophomore slump (if we call 2012 his first real season), going 8-9 with a 3.00 ERA and 191 Ks. Seemed to get very little run support. Still had the 2nd-highest average fastball velocity, behind Matt Harvey.
3. Cole Hamels - Was not the Phillies' pitcher who finished 6th in Cy Young voting (that would be Clifton Phifer Lee). I actually saw 4 games he pitched in person, and the Phillies scored a combined 4 runs in those games. He remained a very good pitcher with a nasty changeup but, like Strasburg, got very little help or luck. Had fewer quality starts than only Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright in the NL.
4. Johnny Cueto - I took him as an upside pick and, well, he did all right when he played. Mr. Cueto only managed 11 games, though, as he was sidelined with injuries for most of the year. He did go 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA in those games, but after a strong 2012, his '13 campaign was a lost year.
5. Clayton Kershaw - Saying he was "too talented not to include," and that "he might be top-3 for the next 5 years," I tacked on the eventual Cy Young winner at the end. The then-25-year-old managed an ERA of 1.83, put up 232 Ks, and amassed a 16-9 record to win the trophy and earn himself a huge contract extension. Like Felix Hernandez, it seems like he's been in the league forever because he started when he was so young.
AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander - Dude puts up 5.2 WAR and that's an off year. Amazing. He was overshadowed by the more measurable success of his teammate (more on him to come), but the difference between his Cy Young campaigns and 2013 was almost entirely explainable by a spike in BABIP, much of which can be contributed to the Tigers rolling out an historically bad defense. There's no cause for alarm in the Verlander camp.
2. Yu Darvish - Finished 2nd in the voting. Last April, fangraphs.com published this article demonstrating, visually, why Darvish is a monster on the mound. The fastest of the pitches shown is a 97 mph fastball. The slowest is a 64 mph curve. And the delivery for all of them looks identical. Darvish led the majors in strikeouts by a wide margin (277 to Scherzer's 240), and although his win total dropped from 2012 (16 to 13), so did his ERA (3.90 to 2.83).
3. Chris Sale - An example of a very good player on a very bad team. Sale went 11-14 last year, although his numbers were very good (3.07 ERA, 226 Ks, 5.1 WAR). The voters realized it, and he came in 5th in Cy Young voting despite the losing record.
4. David Price - No repeat for the '12 winner, as his ERA was up, his Ks were down, and he put up only half as many wins as the year before (10 in '13, 20 in '12). It didn't keep him from being the biggest trade target this offseason (and, as we found out, the most difficult piece to acquire), nor did it keep the Rays from snagging a Wild Card spot fairly easily. It did keep Price off the voters' ballots, though.
5. Max Scherzer - Once again, the last name on my short list brings home the hardware. I said of the dichromatic hurler "he has the pieces, just needs to put them together" after a 2012 campaign that saw a huge jump in strikeouts (8.03 per 9 in 2011 to 11.08 per 9 in 2012). A jump in strikeouts is often an indicator of future success, and Scherzer managed to get more than 10 strikeouts per 9 while lowering his walk and home run rates to the lowest of his career. All of that added together, plus a very good offense behind him, means a 21-3 season that looked for a while like it might end up 25-1 or so. Brilliant performance for a good guy.
So, there you have it. Three of the four award winners were on my shortlists, and my picks were, if not sterling, at least informed.
NATIONAL LEAGUE 2014 PREDICTIONS OUT TOMORROW!!!
No comments:
Post a Comment