Joe's Sports Blog: Home of the Ruby Rankings and More!: October 2013

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

NCAAF Week 10 PREVIEW!!!

The rankings used in this post are the Ruby Rankings, which can be found HERE!

The FBS games this week can be readily broken down into two major categories:

#1 Florida State vs. #12 Miami
-and-
Every Other Game.

Clearly, the match-up in Tallahassee is the highlight of the weekend, with both teams coming in undefeated and ranked in the top 7 of the BCS. We'll all be waiting for the 8 PM kick-off anxiously, to see if Jimbo Fisher's squad can demolish another ACC foe.

Here's how the WEEKLY NCAAF PREVIEW is going to work: I'll give you the games that are:
- The 5 Closest Matches,
- The 5 Biggest Mismatches,
- The 3 Most Watchable (combination of closeness and talent; two similar 7-1 teams playing will be more exciting than two identical 3-5 teams plaing), and
- The Single Most Excruciating.

Armed with such knowledge, it is up which games to enjoy and avoid!

The Closest Matches:

1. #76 San Jose State (4-3) vs. #79 UNLV (5-3). Both of these teams are 3-1 in-conference, but are greatly overshadowed by Fresno State. UNLV has already lost to the Bulldogs, meaning that their MWC title hopes are all-but dashed, but if San Jose State can win this one, there's a good chance the SJSU-Fresno State match-up on November 29th will be a de facto MWC semifinal.

2. #86 Memphis (1-5) vs. #88 Cincinnati (5-2). This is a strange match-up; the Ruby Rankings actually have Memphis as the favorite, despite their sole win. This is largely because Memphis's adjusted strength-of-schedule is 10th hardest out of 126, while Cincinnati's sits in dead last. Those two losses are against teams worse than Memphis. This is a Wednesday night game, which means that I might be the only one paying attention.

3. #47 North Texas (5-3) vs. #51 Rice (6-2). Does anyone remember that Rice hung with #14 Texas A&M in week 1, losing by a respectable 52-31? Nah. Johnny Football didn't play the first half of that one. Since then, though, the Owls have gone 6-1 and cruised to a 4-0 C-USA record. North Texas similarly stuck with #19 Georgia earlier this year before the Bulldogs pulled away to a 24-point win. These two teams have very different styles - Rice is run, run, run, and UNT has a balanced, pass-first attack - but are very similar in quality.

4. #85 Louisiana-Monroe (4-4) vs. #91 Troy (5-3). These are the only two teams that could keep #49 Louisiana-Lafayette from winning the Sun Belt Conference title. The loser of this game will likely be eliminated from such contention.

5. #31 Texas Tech (7-1) vs. #35 Oklahoma State (6-1). Let's face it: everybody paying attention should have expected #9 Oklahoma to take care of Texas Tech last week. They did. That being said, both of these squads are still in Big 12 title contention; neither has played #5 Baylor or #34 Texas, the only two teams without Big 12 losses. Like many of the games above, these teams are in similar enough spots that this match-up will function to eliminate one from championship contention.

The Biggest Mismatches:

1. #14 Texas A&M (6-2) vs. #120 UTEP (1-6). Congratulations to the Miners for trying to improve their strength-of-schedule, or make some quick money, or something. This should be ugly; UTEP is coming off a 38-point loss to Rice, and Texas A&M is going to find the bottom of the C-USA barrel even less resistant than #62 Vanderbilt and #83 Arkansas (who the Aggies beat by a combined 34 points).

2. #4 Ohio State (8-0) vs. #107 Purdue (1-6). After their dismantling of #52 Penn State last week, the Buckeyes should find things even easier against the Boilermakers. Only four teams have managed to put up fewer points per game than Purdue this year, and only four teams have managed to put up more points per game than Ohio State this year. Boom.

3. #38 Northern Illinois (8-0) vs. #124 Massachusetts (1-7). NIU doesn't have to worry about whether they're BCS-worthy this week. They face a Minutemen squad that scores the fewest points per game in the nation (10.9), and is in the bottom-20 in both passing and rushing. Huskies QB Jordan Lynch already has 1,711 yards passing and 1,031 rushing, accounting for 26 TDs. Expect that number to be on the other side of 30 (or 32?) by this time next week.

4. #36 East Carolina (5-2) vs. #123 Florida International (1-6). ECU's in the C-USA East driver's seat, whereas FIU is in the toilet. The Golden Panthers have been a bit better of late (their win came 3 weeks ago over equally inept #120 Southern Miss, 24-23), but the only team that's been able to keep the Pirates from putting up a ton of points was #17 Virginia Tech. Does not bode well for FIU.

5. #49 Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2) vs. #122 New Mexico State (1-7). I wrote before about my love of La-La QB Terrance Broadway's name. The Ragin' Cajuns (also a name I like) are on a 5-game winning streak. Of the five teams Louisiana-Lafayette has defeated, the Independent New Mexico State squad is likely most similar to Nicholls State, the FCS school the Cajuns smacked 70-7. They'll need to be careful not to overlook a non-conference foe in the middle of a title hunt, but I get the feeling that they can overlook NMSU and still be all right.

The Most Watchable:

1. #1 Florida State (7-0) vs. #12 Miami (7-0). Don't get me wrong: I don't expect this to be a nail-biter. FSU should win fairly comfortably; the Hurricanes recent performances (defeating #61 UNC by 4 and #66 Wake Forest by 3) don't exactly inspire confidence. They can be forgiven for looking ahead to this match-up, but I don't think there's a defense out there that can stop Jameis Winston. He looks like the real deal.

2. #16 Michigan (6-1) vs. #25 Michigan State (7-1). These teams are ranked 21 and 22 in the BCS, respectively, so this is definitely a rivalry game that could come down to the wire. There's no secret to this one: Michigan has a high-powered offense and Michigan State has a shut-down defense. UMich should like their chances if they can score more than 21; Michigan State hasn't scored more than 26 against any defense that can be described as "solid."

3. #31 Texas Tech vs #35 Oklahoma State. See above for a description of how close these teams are; both of these teams have a reputation as shoot-out offenses, and this one could get up into the high 40s.

The Single Most Excruciatingly Unbearable Game of the Week:

#36 East Carolina (5-2) vs. #123 Florida International (1-6). In part because the teams are so mismatched, but largely because of Florida International's terrible, terrible statline. They are dead last in the nation in total offense, gaining 219.1 yards per game. There are 77 teams that pass for more than that each contest, and 20 teams that rush for more than that. This is simply a team that can't move the ball. This is true even when the Golden Panthers play bad teams; last week against #112 Louisiana Tech, FIU managed a paltry 197 yards (the fewest La Tech had given up in their seven prior games was 362), average less than 5 yards per pass attempt. Watching this game might make your eyes bleed, or drive you into a deep, contemplative melancholy.

Monday, October 28, 2013

2014 Ruby Rankings: NCAAF FBS Rankings (Week 9)

Here's the Ruby Rankings after NCAAF Week 9! This is the second edition of the Rankings.

This year's first rankings, with a description of methodology, can be found HERE!

The basics are as follows:

1) The 126 FBS teams are roughly scaled from 0 (a bottom-five, roughly winless team) to 1000 (a BCS Championship Favorite).

2) The ranking takes into account wins/losses, strength of schedule, and statistics.

3) The rankings are updated weekly.

WEEK 9 RUBY RANKINGS:

Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score (RANK Change from Last Week)

1. Florida State (7-0): 979 (=)
2. Oregon (8-0): 949 (=)
3. Alabama (8-0): 911 (=)
4. Ohio State (8-0): 880 (+2)
5. Baylor (7-0): 854 (=)
6. Missouri (7-1): 830 (-2)
7. Stanford (7-1): 821 (=)
8. Arizona State (5-2): 812 (=)
9. Oklahoma (7-1): 807 (+3)
10. Clemson (7-1): 785 (=)
11. Auburn (7-1): 781 (+3)
12. Miami (FL) (7-0): 778 (+1)
13. BYU (6-2): 762 (+6)
14. Texas A&M (6-2): 743 (+6)
15. Louisville (7-1): 730 (=)
16. Michigan (6-1): 728 (+2)
17. Virginia Tech (6-2): 724 (-6)
18. UCLA (5-2): 707 (-9)
19. Georgia (4-3): 703 (-2)
20. LSU (7-2): 697 (-4)
21. South Carolina (6-2): 694 (+6)
22. Houston (6-1): 687 (+19)
23. Wisconsin (5-2): 684 (-2)
24. Mississippi (5-3): 677 (+5)
25. Michigan State (7-1): 670 (+9)
26. Washington (5-3): 669 (-2)
27. Notre Dame (6-2): 668 (-2)
28. Florida (4-3): 665 (-2)
29. Arizona (5-2): 660 (+11)
30. Mississippi State (4-3): 659 (+8)
31. Texas Tech (7-1): 658 (-9)
32. Georgia Tech (5-3): 657 (-2)
33. UCF (6-1): 656 (-10)
34. Texas (5-2): 638 (+11)
35. Oklahoma State (6-1): 625 (+1)
36. East Carolina (5-2): 622 (+1)
37. USC (5-3): 617 (+7)
38. Northern Illinois (8-0): 609 (-3)
39. Minnesota (6-2): 592 (+18)
40. Fresno State (7-0): 580 (-8)
41. Iowa (5-3): 580 (+5)
42. Duke (6-2): 580 (+8)
43. Utah (4-4): 579 (-12)
44. Nebraska (5-2): 577 (-16)
45. Oregon State (6-2): 568 (-6)
46. Pittsburgh (4-3): 548 (-13)
47. North Texas (5-3): 541 (+5)
48. Tennessee (4-4): 538 (-5)
49. Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2): 527 (+14)
50. Ball State (8-1): 520 (+4)
51. Rice (6-2): 518 (+9)
52. Penn State (4-3): 516 (-10)
53. Indiana (3-4): 514 (-2)
54. Toledo (5-3): 506 (+12)
55. Maryland (5-3): 493 (-7)
56. Boise State (5-3): 489 (-7)
57. Utah State (4-4): 488 (+1)
58. Ohio (6-2): 471 (-3)
59. Marshall (4-3): 466 (-12)
60. Navy (4-3): 461 (+16)
61. North Carolina (2-5): 461 (+16)
62. Vanderbilt (4-4): 452 (-9)
63. Washington State (4-4): 452 (+1)
64. TCU (3-5): 451 (-8)
65. Northwestern (4-4): 439 (+4)
66. Wake Forest (4-4): 436 (+1)
67. Buffalo (6-2): 430 (+7)
68. Rutgers (4-3): 422 (-7)
69. Colorado (3-4): 422 (-10)
70. Tulane (6-2): 418 (+8)
71. Bowling Green (5-3): 417 (-6)
72. Virginia (2-6): 400 (-2)
73. Syracuse (3-4): 397 (=)
74. North Carolina State (3-4): 395 (+1)
75. Kansas State (3-4): 395 (+14)
76. San Jose State (4-3): 386 (+9)
77. Western Kentucky (4-4): 384 (-5)
78. Boston College (3-4): 383 (-16)
79. UNLV (5-3): 382 (+5)
80. Arkansas State (3-4): 365 (-9)
81. West Virginia (3-5): 358 (-13)
82. Texas State (5-3): 355 (+5)
83. Arkansas (3-5): 351 (-2)
84. Florida Atlantic (2-6): 347 (-4)
85. Louisiana-Monroe (4-4): 339 (+3)
86. Memphis (1-5): 335 (+5)
87. South Alabama (3-4): 332 (-8)
88. Cincinnati (5-2): 329 (-6)
89. UTSA (3-5): 320 (+10)
90. Middle Tennessee (4-4): 318 (+15)
91. Troy (5-3): 313 (+7)
92. Colorado State (4-4): 300 (+1)
93. Wyoming (4-4): 293 (-7)
94. Illinois (3-4): 289 (-11)
95. SMU (3-4): 288 (-1)
96. San Diego State (3-4): 281 (+8)
97. Old Dominion (5-3): 276 (-7)
98. Army (3-5): 275 (-3)
99. Kansas (2-5): 267 (-2)
100. Nevada (3-5): 263 (-8)
101. Kentucky (1-6): 263 (-5)
102. Tulsa (2-5): 261 (-2)
103. Akron (2-7): 244 (-2)
104. Central Michigan (3-5): 239 (-1)
105. Iowa State (1-6): 211 (+1)
106. California (1-7): 202 (-4)
107. Purdue (1-6): 185 (=)
108. Kent State (2-7): 172 (=)
109. South Florida (2-5): 164 (+1)
110. New Mexico (2-5): 140 (+1)
111. Louisiana Tech (3-5): 134 (+4)
112. UAB (2-5): 132 (-3)
113. Hawai'i (0-7): 106 (-1)
114. Temple (1-7): 89 (=)
115. Eastern Michigan (1-7): 83 (+1)
116. Idaho (1-7): 70 (-3)
117. Air Force (1-7): 60 (+1)
118. Connecticut (0-7): 46 (+1)
119. UTEP (1-6): 28 (+1)
120. Southern Miss (0-7): 17 (-3)
121. Western Michigan (1-8): 6 (+1)
122. New Mexico State (1-7): -66 (+2)
123. Florida International (1-6): -70 (-2)
124. Massachusetts (1-7): -85 (-1)
125. Georgia State (0-8): -132 (=)
126. Miami (OH) (0-8): -153 (=)

Big Movers and Other Notes

#18 UCLA falls 9 spots after its 28-point loss to #2 Oregon. This might be a little harsh, because I don't think anyone expected UCLA to stick with the Ducks as long as they did (it was 14-14 at halftime), and they actually held Oregon to their lowest point total of the year (42, which is ridiculous). But for the second straight week, UCLA was pretty soundly dominated in the end. Oregon held the Bruins, who came into the game averaging 302 yards through the air, to a paltry 64 passing yards on 19 attempts (13 completions). UCLA is likely better than #18, but they'll need to string a few wins together to prove it to the computer.

#22 Houston jumps a whopping 19 spots after smacking #68 Rutgers 49-14 in Piscataway. Houston was aided by a 6-0 turnover margin, and and flexed their muscles with 400 passing yards against a team whose only prior losses were by 1 point, in OT, against undefeated #40 Fresno State and by a closer-than-the-score-indicated 14 against #15 Louisville. For their part, Houston's only loss was 47-46 to #13 BYU last week in the Battle of the Cougars; they came out angry and showed that they, and not Louisville, are in the AAC Driver's Seat. Houston faces UCF and Louisville back-to-back next month.

#33 UCF falls 10 spots... after a 45-point win? That can't be right. Unfortunately, though, that's one of the issues with an RPI-based system: when you play a godawful team, you can't beat them bad enough to make up for the blow they deal to your strength-of-schedule. #118 Connecticut is the worst BCS-Conference team this year, and they've been downright horrendous. UCF should jump back up (notice that the difference between #25 Michigan State and UCF is 14 points, which is incredibly tiny) to the top 20 if they can beat Houston in two weeks.

#39 Minnesota climbs 18 spots and #44 Nebraska falls 16 after the former beat the latter 34-23. This was an eye-opening result for me, because through their first seven games the Golden Gophers had soundly defeated the five bad teams they'd played and been soundly defeated by the two good teams they'd played. If you've been paying attention, you know that Minnesota finds themselves without their Head Coach, Jerry Kill, who is on an indefinite leave of absence to treat his epilepsy.

#49 Louisiana-Lafayette climbs 14 spots into the top 50. With a QB named Terrance Broadway, they have to be ready for the spotlight. Despite opening the season with back-to-back losses against BCS teams that, quite possible, the Ragin' Cajuns should have defeated (#83 Arkansas and #75 Kansas State), La-La should have an easy time ripping through the Sun Belt; the toughest of the five teams remaining on their schedule is #82 Texas State.

TOP/BOTTOM 10

Statistical Profiles:

1. #5 Baylor
2. #2 Oregon
3. #1 Florida State
4. #15 Louisville
5. #4 Ohio State
6. #23 Wisconsin
7. #3 Alabama
8. #25 Michigan State
9. #22 Houston
10. #12 Miami (FL)
...
117. #124 Massachusetts
118. #107 Purdue
119. #125 Georgia State
120. #121 Western Michigan
121. #115 Eastern Michigan
122. #126 Miami (OH)
123. #123 Florida International
124. #116 Idaho
125. #120 Southern Miss
126. #122 New Mexico State

RPI Profiles:

1. #7 Stanford
2. #3 Alabama
3. #1 Florida State
4. #9 Oklahoma
5. #6 Missouri
6. #19 Georgia
7. #11 Auburn
8. #2 Oregon
9. #4 Ohio State
10. #10 Clemson
...
117. #121 Western Michigan
118. #111 Louisiana Tech
119. #110 New Mexico
120. #117 Air Force
121. #122 New Mexico State
122. #123 Florida International
123. #119 UTEP
124. #124 Massachusetts
125. #126 Miami (OH)
126. #125 Georgia State

Adjusted Strength-of-Schedule

1. #19 Georgia
2. #107 Purdue
3. #61 North Carolina
4. #72 Virginia
5. #69 Colorado
6. #53 Indiana
7. #103 Akron
8. #106 California
9. #30 Mississippi State
10. #86 Memphis
...
117. #111 Louisiana Tech
118. #25 Michigan State
119. #40 Fresno State
120. #35 Oklahoma State
121. #67 Buffalo
122. #71 Bowling Green
123. #97 Old Dominion
124. #50 Ball State
125. #38 Northern Illinois
126. #88 Cincinnati

A few thoughts on games I watched:

- Part of what's good about computer rankings is that they don't take subjective evaluation into account; part of what's bad about computer rankings is that they don't take subjective evaluation into account. The BCS Computers currently have Fresno State ranked 15th. After watching them try to out-lackluster San Diego State in the wee hours of Sunday morning, that seems patently ridiculous.

- Note that my rankings have Northern Illinois #38. Both Polls have them 20th. The Computer Average has them 13th. This is where the rubber of my argument against ignoring things like margins of victory hits the road, so to speak. I am an enormous fan of Jeff Sagarin's rankings, which he does for USA Today. His football rankings are one of the 6 used in the BCS computation. Sagarin actually provides a Pure ELO Ranking, which doesn't take margin of victory into account, and, as he says, is good at "retro-fitting the W-L results," and a Predictive Ranking.

His Predictive Ranking has Northern Illinois 51st (out of 251 FBS and FCS teams). The Pure ELO - which is what the BCS uses - has Northern Illinois 3rd. That the BCS includes a computer system that ranks Northern Illinois third in the nation (their best win this year is a 30-27 Opening Week victory over Iowa) shows why the BCS had to be terminated with extreme prejudice.

- The discerning reader will notice that, although Florida State's rank remained the same, their score dropped precipitously, from 1042 to 979. This is simply a result of regression to the mean: there is no team in the country with a "true talent level" of "beating Clemson by 37"; in order to keep from coming back down to earth, FSU would've had to beat NC State by upwards of 80. They sure as hell could have, but kudos to Jimbo Fisher for taking the pedal off the gas at halftime.

- The Ohio State win over Penn State really showed that the Buckeyes are not pretenders to the crown. Not that Penn State is a fantastic team, but OSU's dismantling of the Nittany Lions showed that this team is as good now as they've been with Urban Meyer at the helm. I would not be even a little bit surprised if Florida State, Oregon, Alabama, and Ohio State all finish the season undefeated. Not even a little bit.

Monday, October 21, 2013

2014 Ruby Rankings: NCAAF FBS Rankings (Week 8)

MOST RECENT RANKINGS HERE.

Everyone! Gather 'round!

This is my first original post on Joe's Sports Blog, and is the first edition of the Ruby Rankings this year.

The Ruby Rankings are my original NCAA Football Computer Ranking; I've been publishing some form of these for a few years now, and have refined them to what I think is a pretty successful measure of how good the 126 FBS teams are. In particular, the Ruby Rankings were quite successful at predicting last year's Bowl Games in a little Confidence Pick 'Em I ran. The Ruby Rankings are based on a few basic ideas (feel free to skip to the Rankings if you're not interested in theory):

- Strength of Schedule is a big deal. In particular, the Ruby Rankings use a modified RPI (Ratings Percentage Index, see here) as a large basis of the calculation. The best measure of a team's ability is who they've defeated and who has defeated them.

- Where many ratings systems get it wrong, however, is that who a team's defeated and been defeated by is not the only measure of a team's ability. That is to say: STATS MATTER. Many ratings systems tout the fact that statistics do not play a role in their systems as a virtue, because - as we all know - certain teams are always running up the score, no one cares if you give up a turnover when you're winning or losing by 35, and at the end of the day, all that really matters is whether you win or lose. That's a good philosophy for a coach, but a ratings system that completely ignores statistics is throwing away useful information. So, taking into account and attempting to correct for the limitations that will be present in any effort to use statistics as part of a prediction/ranking, the Ruby Rankings are in-part Statistics-Based. Sorry about the liberal use of bold in this paragraph, but this is a big pet peeve of mine. A team that's statistically dominated very good opponents, and has, say, an 11-1 record, is almost always going to be better, in the long run, then a team that has barely defeated lots of mediocre teams but has managed to get the win every time. For a particular example of the universal, see: Alabama 42, Notre Dame 14. In the regular season, Alabama barely lost to Texas A&M. Notre Dame almost lost to Purdue. Tell me which one's worse.

- The ranking should be Quantitative rather than Ordinal. That is, I'll give you where each team ranks, but I'll also show you that team's raw score so you can compare.

- The system is loosely SCALED, with 1000 being the kind of score a national championship contender would get and 0 being among the worst teams in the country. Last year, before the bowl games, the highest rating was Alabama (1054) and the lowest was Idaho (-84). Some tweaks to the formula since last year have shifted the scores slightly lower overall.

So, the premier (Week 8) RUBY RANKINGS for 2013/14:

Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score

1. Florida State (6-0): 1042
2. Oregon (7-0): 931
3. Alabama (7-0): 892
4. Missouri (7-0): 874
5. Baylor (6-0): 841
6. Ohio State (7-0): 826
7. Stanford (6-1): 824
8. Arizona State (5-2): 810
9. UCLA (5-1): 787
10. Clemson (6-1): 782
11. Virgina Tech (6-1): 765
12. Oklahoma (6-1): 763
13. Miami (FL) (6-0): 756
14. Auburn (6-1): 754
15. Louisville (6-1): 741
16. LSU (6-2): 730
17. Georgia (4-3): 723
18. Michigan (6-1): 720
19. BYU (5-2): 707
20. Texas A&M (5-2): 706
21. Wisconsin (5-2): 697
22. Texas Tech (7-0): 697
23. UCF (5-1): 682
24. Washington (4-3): 680
25. Notre Dame (5-2): 675
26. Florida (4-3): 674
27. South Carolina (5-2): 667
28. Nebraska (5-1): 665
29. Mississippi (4-3): 662
30. Georgia Tech (4-3): 652
31. Utah (4-3): 650
32. Fresno State (6-0): 628
33. Pittsburgh (4-2): 615
34. Michigan State (6-1): 614
35. Northern Illinois (7-0): 606
36. Oklahoma State (5-1): 600
37. East Carolina (5-2): 600
38. Mississippi State (3-3): 596
39. Oregon State (6-1): 592
40. Arizona (4-2): 590
41. Houston (5-1): 585
42. Penn State (4-2): 576
43. Tennessee (4-3): 570
44. USC (4-3): 566
45. Texas (4-2): 556
46. Iowa (4-3): 553
47. Marshall (4-2): 546
48. Maryland (5-2): 542
49. Boise State (5-2): 537
50. Duke (5-2): 526
51. Indiana (3-4): 524
52. North Texas (4-3): 503
53. Vanderbilt (4-3): 497
54. Ball State (7-1): 495
55. Ohio (5-2): 493
56. TCU (3-4): 492
57. Minnesota (5-2): 491
58. Utah State (4-4): 482
59. Colorado (3-3): 482
60. Rice (5-2): 478
61. Rutgers (4-2): 476
62. Boston College (3-3): 469
63. Louisiana-Lafayette (4-2): 461
64. Washington State (4-4): 457
65. Bowling Green (5-2): 451
66. Toledo (4-3): 451
67. Wake Forest (4-3): 444
68. West Virginia (3-4): 429
69. Northwestern (4-3): 422
70. Virginia (2-5): 417
71. Arkansas State (3-3): 412
72. Western Kentucky (4-3): 408
73. Syracuse (3-4): 393
74. Buffalo (5-2): 388
75. North Carolina State (3-3): 388
76. Navy (3-3): 383
77. North Carolina (1-5): 383
78. Tulane (5-2): 371
79. South Alabama (3-3): 370
80. Florida Atlantic (2-5): 368
81. Arkansas (3-5): 346
82. Cincinnati (5-2): 338
83. Illinois (3-3): 335
84. UNLV (4-3): 332
85. San Jose State (3-3): 320
86. Wyoming (4-3): 319
87. Texas State (4-3): 317
88. Louisiana-Monroe (3-4): 316
89. Kansas State (2-4): 313
90. Old Dominion (4-3): 309
91. Memphis (1-5): 303
92. Nevada (3-4): 302
93. Colorado State (3-4): 298
94. SMU (2-4): 297
95. Army (3-5): 280
96. Kentucky (1-5): 277
97. Kansas (2-4): 270
98. Troy (4-3): 266
99. UTSA (2-5): 260
100. Tulsa (2-4): 258
101. Akron (2-6): 240
102. California (1-6): 235
103. Central Michigan (3-5): 226
104. San Diego State (3-3): 221
105. Middle Tennessee (3-4): 214
106. Iowa State (1-5): 213
107. Purdue (1-6): 199
108. Kent State (2-6): 197
109. UAB (2-4): 187
110. South Florida (2-4): 165
111. New Mexico (2-5): 127
112. Hawai'i (0-6): 125
113. Idaho (1-6): 102
114. Temple (1-6): 91
115. Louisiana Tech (2-5): 81
116. Eastern Michigan (1-6): 72
117. Southern Miss (0-6): 54
118. Air Force (1-6): 46
119. Connecticut (0-6): 44
120. UTEP (1-5): -16
121. Florida International (1-5): -21
122. Western Michigan (0-8): -50
123. Massachusetts (1-6): -57
124. New Mexico State (0-7): -109
125. Georgia State (0-7): -140
126. Miami (OH) (0-7): -154

A few notes:

- #5 Baylor is obviously ranked a bit higher than they would be in a non-statistical system (they have the top statistical profile, even adjusting their ridiculous 64.7 ppg for their ease-of-schedule). Here, I simply say: don't worry. After cupcake #97 Kansas, they play three ranked teams consecutively (#12 Oklahoma, #22 Texas Tech, #36 Oklahoma State). As their strength of schedule gets marginally better (it's currently 14th-easiest), their statistical profile should get significantly worse.

- #8 Arizona State seems aberrational. The Sun Devils don't show up on the BCS Rankings, and they're 26th in the AP Poll (#1 among Others Receiving Votes). ASU, though, is one of only three teams with top-10 RPI and Statistical Profiles (10th in both; #1 FSU and #4 Missouri are the other such team). They just smacked around a good #24 Washington team, and their two losses are to #7 Stanford by 14 (same margin as in the Cardinal's victory over #9 UCLA) and #25 Notre Dame by 3. Unfortunately, #2 Oregon is not on their regular season schedule, but I would not be at all surprised if Arizona State runs the table, defeating #39 Oregon State and UCLA to earn a date with the Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

- #22 Texas Tech does this every year, don't they? They start off 7-0, earning high BCS and Poll Rankings, and then they get smacked by Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and #45 Texas. Well, the Ruby Rankings aren't buying it. Not yet.

- #82 Cincinnati: How can a 5-2 team from a BCS Conference be ranked so low? The four FBS teams they've defeated - #107 Purdue, #126 Miami (OH), #114 Temple, and #119 Connecticut - have a combined record of 2-25. The two teams they've lost to are #83 Illinois and #110 South Florida. Ranking them #82 might actually be generous.

TOP/BOTTOM 10

Statistical Profiles

1. #5 Baylor
2. #2 Oregon
3. #1 Florida State
4. #15 Louisville
5. #21 Wisconsin
6. #3 Alabama
7. #6 Ohio State
8. #4 Missouri
9. #13 Miami (FL)
10. #8 Arizona State
...
117. #102 California
118. #107 Purdue
119. #116 Eastern Michigan
120. #123 Massachusetts
121. #126 Miami (OH)
122. #113 Idaho
123. #122 Western Michigan
124. #121 Florida Internation
125. #117 Southern Miss
126. #124 New Mexico State

RPI Profiles

1. #1 Florida State
2. #7 Stanford
3. #4 Missouri
4. #17 Georgia
5. #3 Alabama
6. #11 Virginia Tech
7. #14 Auburn
8. #25 Notre Dame
9. #10 Clemson
10. #8 Arizona State
...
117. #111 New Mexico
118. #115 Louisiana Tech
119. #124 New Mexico State
120. #122 Western Michigan
121. #118 Air Force
122. #119 Connecticut
123. #123 Massachusetts
124. #126 Miami (OH)
125. #120 UTEP
126. #125 Georgia State

Adjusted Strength-of-Schedule

1. #17 Georgia
2. #77 North Carolina
3. #107 Purdue
4. #102 California
5. #70 Virginia
6. #51 Indiana
7. #59 Colorado
8. #29 Mississippi
9. #117 Southern Miss
10. #68 West Virginia
...
117. #36 Oklahoma State
118. #22 Texas Tech
119. #74 Buffalo
120. #39 Oregon State
121. #34 Michigan State
122. #65 Bowling Green
123. #54 Ball State
124. #120 UTEP
125. #35 Northern Illinois
126. #82 Cincinnati

Best/Worst Teams by Record

Best undefeated team: #1 Florida State
Worst undefeated team: #35 Northern Illinois

Best one-loss team: #7 Stanford
Worst one-loss team: #54 Ball State

Best two-loss team: #8 Arizona State
Worst two-loss team: #82 Cincinnati

Best three-loss team: #17 Georgia
Worst three-loss team: #104 San Diego State

Best four-loss team: #51 Indiana
Worst four-loss team: #110 South Florida

Thanks for reading all or, very likely, part of that. Will likely update after Week 9; will definitely update after Week 10. - JCR

2012/2013 RUBY RANKINGS: College Football Rankings (Week 13)

2012 NCAAF Week 13 Ruby Rankings, originally published November 19, 2013

All right, everyone. Crazy crazy stuff happened this past week, with the BCS #1 and #2 going down. Notre Dame is now the unanimous AP #1, and every computer ranking system has them first.

Except mine.

I absolutely love Notre Dame, and they're great fun to watch. But it could be argued that their triple-overtime victory against the Panthers was the worst game any team in the top 5 has played this year. I know, it was a win, and all of the others have lost, but I just can't get that out of my head. Neither can my computer ranking, which is also a little disappointed in their 20-17 win over Purdue (unlike the computer, we can see that they're a very different team - with a very different quarterback - now) and rash of close scores at home. There are probably 4 teams I would pick to beat Notre Dame on a neutral field right now; my computer likes them a little more, giving only 2 teams the edge.

I also tweaked the system ever so slightly in an effort to weigh wins against bad teams slightly less and losses against bad teams slightly more. The overall effect should be less than 1.25% for any given team, but you'll notice that scores are slightly down for the top teams. For example, Texas A&M gets slammed for their 47-28 win over Sam Houston State, even though they were up 47-0 and put in the scrubs. In fact, virtually all of the SEC played FCS teams this week, and they lost ground for it. That's the problem with computer rankings; interpret it how you will. For what it's worth, I'd put A&M 10th in my own poll.

So, here are the rankings. I'll tell you the rank, the record, the rating, and how many positions they've gained or lost since last week.

Rank. Team (Record) - Rating (Rank Change From Last Week)

Alabama (10-1) - 1054 (0)
Oregon (10-1) - 1034 (0)
Notre Dame (11-0) - 1001 (+1)
Kansas State (10-1) - 958 (-1)
Florida (10-1) - 948 (0)
LSU (9-2) - 928 (0)
Florida State (10-1) - 899 (+1)
Georgia (10-1) - 881 (-1)
Oregon State (8-2) - 873 (+5)
Stanford (9-2) - 866 (0)
Clemson (10-1) - 848 (+1)
Ohio State (11-0) - 833 (-1)
Fresno State (8-3) - 819 (+3)
Texas A&M (9-2) - 817 (-5)
Oklahoma (8-2) - 814 (-2)
Nebraska (9-2) - 796 (+4)
Boise State (9-2) - 794 (+2)
Oklahoma State (7-3) - 784 (+9)
Kent State (10-1) - 778 (+3)
UCLA (9-2) - 777 (+3)
South Carolina (9-2) - 770 (-4)
Northern Illinois (10-1) - 766 (+2)
Texas (8-2) - 764 (-2)
San Jose State (9-2) - 759 (+1)
Rutgers (9-1) - 758 (+1)
Louisiana Tech (9-2) - 754 (-11)
Mississippi State (8-3) - 753 (+5)
Penn State (7-4) - 744 (0)
Michigan (8-3) - 718 (+1)
Northwestern (8-3) - 711 (+10)
Utah State (9-2) - 707 (+6)
North Carolina (7-4) - 704 (+7)
Tulsa (9-2) - 704 (+1)
Wisconsin (7-4) - 696 (-3)
Louisville (9-1) - 692 (-2)
USC (7-4) - 687 (-7)
Arkansas State (8-3) - 678 (+6)
Arizona (7-4) - 677 (0)
UCF (8-3) - 673 (-4)
Cincinnati (7-3) - 654 (-4)
Washington (7-4) - 646 (+9)
Toledo (8-3) - 633 (0)
Arizona State (6-5) - 633 (+6)
Michigan State (5-6) - 630 (0)
Texas Tech (7-4) - 628 (-27)
San Diego State (8-3) - 628 (0)
Ohio (8-3) - 623 (-6)
Georgia Tech (6-5) - 622 (+7)
TCU (6-4) - 619 (-2)
Louisiana-Monroe (7-4) - 610 (+1)
BYU (6-5) - 608 (-6)
Bowling Green (7-4) - 601 (-4)
Vanderbilt (7-4) - 597 (+1)
Ball State (8-3) - 595 (+3)
West Virginia (5-5) - 583 (-3)
Baylor (5-5) - 583 (+11)
Syracuse (6-5) - 568 (-1)
Iowa State (6-5) - 555 (+4)
Missouri (5-6) - 548 (-6)
Miami (FL) (6-5) - 544 (+6)
Navy (7-4) - 538 (-1)
Middle Tennessee (7-3) - 538 (+2)
Mississippi (5-6) - 530 (-5)
Pittsburgh (4-6) - 528 (-3)
Louisiana-Lafayette (6-4) - 518 (-2)
Duke (6-5) - 491 (-7)
Virginia Tech (5-6) - 485 (+6)
Western Kentucky (6-5) - 484 (-3)
Iowa (4-7) - 478 (+2)
Nevada (7-4) - 474 (+2)
Purdue (5-6) - 474 (+6)
Minnesota (6-5) - 452 (-2)
Utah (4-7) - 441 (+2)
Tennessee (4-7) - 435 (-6)
SMU (5-6) - 433 (-6)
Rice (5-6) - 431 (+9)
North Carolina State (6-5) - 425 (-3)
Marshall (5-6) - 419 (+5)
Troy (5-6) - 419 (-3)
UTSA (7-4) - 408 (+2)
East Carolina (7-4) - 402 (-3)
Indiana (4-7) - 394 (-3)
Wake Forest (5-6) - 377 (-3)
Air Force (6-5) - 363 (+5)
North Texas (4-7) - 359 (-4)
New Mexico (4-8) - 350 (0)
Buffalo (4-7) - 326 (+6)
Central Michigan (5-6) - 325 (+10)
California (3-9) - 324 (-1)
Arkansas (4-7) - 323 (-6)
Virginia (4-7) - 323 (-4)
Wyoming (4-7) - 322 (+5)
Kentucky (2-9) - 316 (+9)
Temple (4-6) - 309 (+12)
South Florida (3-7) - 304 (-4)
Houston (4-7) - 295 (-4)
Florida International (3-8) - 290 (+8)
Texas State (3-7) - 288 (-2)
Connecticut (4-6) - 281 (0)
Florida Atlantic (3-8) - 274 (-5)
Auburn (3-8) - 269 (-11)
Western Michigan (4-8) - 267 (-8)
Miami (OH) (4-7) - 253 (-3)
Army (2-9) - 247 (-3)
Maryland (4-7) - 244 (-2)
Kansas (1-10) - 233 (+1)
Boston College (2-9) - 230 (+1)
Memphis (3-8) - 220 (+6)
UAB (3-8) - 211 (-5)
UTEP (3-8) - 202 (+2)
Colorado State (3-8) - 190 (-1)
UNLV (2-10) - 182 (-1)
Illinois (2-9) - 171 (-4)
Washington State (2-9) - 144 (-1)
Eastern Michigan (2-9) - 133 (+2)
South Alabama (2-9) - 92 (-1)
Akron (1-10) - 91 (-1)
Tulane (2-9) - 81 (0)
Southern Miss (0-11) - -4 (0)
New Mexico State (1-9) - -38 (+1)
Massachusetts (1-10) - -46 (+1)
Hawai'i (1-9) - -46 (+1)
Colorado (1-10) - -62 (-4)
Idaho (1-10) - -84 (0)

2012/2013 RUBY RANKINGS: College Football Rankings (Week 12)

Inaugural Edition of the Ruby Rankings, originally published November 13, 2012

Hey everyone. Craziness in the College Football ranks, what with a bunch of good teams vying for the two most important spots in the game. I have, for the first time in a few years, gone ahead and punched up Joe Ruby's Super Awesome NCAA Football Rankings! I obviously will not disclose my formula, so just assume it's perfect, but it takes the following things into account: Wins, Losses, Schedule, Passing Yards Per Game (for and against), Rushing Yards Per Game (for and against), Points Per Game (for and against), and Turnover Margin. So, as you can see, it's not particularly "high tech." I have it scaled so that a rating of 1000 represents a National Championship contender, a rating of 500 is approximately NCAA average, and a rating of 0 is pretty darn bad. You can get below 0 if you're very weak statistically as well as in terms of winning percentage.

So, everyone, the debates will be put to rest. Here's all 124 NCAA FBS teams, ranked 1 to 124. Should each undefeated team get a shot at the National Championship? Absolutely. But that's why they're adding a playoff. It turns out that what a lot of us believed to be true is: the best team in the country is a one-loss SEC squad.

Also, note that this is a preliminary run, and I haven't entirely tweaked it to my liking. Aside from some good record, poor strength-of-schedule teams being ranked a little higher than I'd like (here's looking at you, #22 Kent State; I think maybe I've overvalued scoring defense... but I digress), I think these are about as solid as any of them.

Last word: some of these teams have the same rating but aren't listed as tied. I've rounded to the nearest integer for these rankings, but carried out to two decimal points on the master sheet. To hundredths (which isn't significant anyway, but whatever) there are no ties.

Rank. Team - Rating (Record)

Alabama - 1108 (9-1)
Oregon - 1086 (10-0)
Kansas State - 1080 (10-0)
Notre Dame - 1000 (10-0)
Florida - 994 (9-1)
LSU - 957 (8-2)
Georgia - 936 (9-1)
Florida State - 930 (9-1)
Texas A&M - 900 (9-2)
Stanford - 877 (8-2)
Ohio State - 868 (10-0)
Clemson - 863 (9-1)
Oklahoma - 851 (7-2)
Oregon State - 842 (7-2)
Louisiana Tech - 837 (9-1)
Fresno State - 832 (8-3)
South Carolina - 823 (8-2)
Texas Tech - 804 (7-3)
Boise State - 802 (8-2)
Nebraska - 788 (8-2)
Texas - 779 (8-2)
Kent State - 779 (8-2)
UCLA - 770 (8-2)
Northern Illinois - 755 (9-1)
San Jose State - 752 (8-2)
Rutgers - 748 (8-1)
Oklahoma State - 741 (6-3)
Penn State - 734 (6-4)
USC - 732 (7-3)
Michigan - 724 (7-3)
Wisconsin - 713 (7-3)
Mississippi State - 713 (7-3)
Louisville - 709 (9-1)
Tulsa - 701 (8-2)
UCF - 699 (8-2)
Cincinnati - 691 (7-2)
Utah State - 688 (8-2)
Arizona - 686 (6-4)
North Carolina - 684 (6-4)
Northwestern - 682 (7-3)
Ohio - 678 (8-2)
Toledo - 673 (8-2)
Arkansas State - 672 (7-3)
Michigan State - 665 (5-5)
BYU - 644 (6-4)
San Diego State - 639 (8-3)
TCU - 638 (6-4)
Bowling Green - 631 (7-3)
Arizona State - 624 (5-5)
Washington - 601 (6-4)
Louisiana-Monroe - 586 (6-4)
West Virginia - 582 (5-4)
Missouri - 576 (5-5)
Vanderbilt - 575 (6-4)
Georgia Tech - 574 (5-5)
Syracuse - 554 (5-5)
Ball State - 554 (7-3)
Mississippi - 543 (5-5)
Duke - 528 (6-4)
Navy - 527 (6-4)
Pittsburgh - 516 (4-6)
Iowa State - 515 (5-5)
Louisiana-Lafayette - 506 (5-4)
Middle Tennessee - 502 (6-3)
Western Kentucky - 494 (6-4)
Miami (FL) - 493 (5-5)
Baylor - 491 (4-5)
Tennessee - 489 (4-6)
SMU - 486 (5-5)
Minnesota - 483 (6-4)
Iowa - 474 (4-6)
Nevada - 471 (6-4)
Virginia Tech - 461 (4-6)
North Carolina State - 447 (6-4)
Utah - 440 (4-6)
Troy - 438 (5-5)
Purdue - 431 (4-6)
East Carolina - 416 (6-4)
Indiana - 410 (4-6)
Wake Forest - 393 (5-5)
North Texas - 389 (4-6)
UTSA - 389 (6-4)
Marshall - 388 (4-6)
Arkansas - 376 (4-6)
Rice - 365 (4-6)
New Mexico - 362 (4-7)
Virginia - 358 (4-6)
California -358 (3-8)
Air Force - 357 (5-5)
Auburn - 344 (2-8)
South Florida - 332 (3-6)
Houston - 316 (4-6)
Buffalo - 309 (3-7)
Western Michigan - 307 (4-7)
Florida Atlantic - 295 (3-7)
Texas State - 289 (3-6)
Wyoming - 282 (3-7)
Central Michigan - 281 (4-6)
Connecticut - 278 (4-6)
Miami (OH) - 275 (4-6)
Army - 264 (2-8)
Kentucky - 264 (1-9)
Maryland - 252 (4-6)
UAB - 250 (3-7)
Florida International - 246 (2-8)
Temple - 244 (3-6)
Kansas - 241 (1-9)
Boston College - 224 (2-8)
Illinois - 195 (2-8)
Colorado State - 193 (3-7)
UNLV - 190 (2-9)
UTEP - 187 (2-8)
Washington State - 173 (2-8)
Memphis - 144 (2-8)
South Alabama - 107 (2-8)
Akron - 73 (1-10)
Eastern Michigan - 60 (1-9)
Tulane - 24 (2-8)
Southern Mississippi - -30 (0-10)
Colorado - -44 (1-9)
New Mexico State - -53 (1-9)
Massachusetts - -57 (1-9)
Hawai'i - -62 (1-8)
Idaho - -106 (1-9)

So, debate settled. Suggestions? Rants? GO!

Joe's 2013 MLB Picks: American League

My 2013 AL Picks, originally published April 4, 2013

So by now you've all read the 4,139 words of my National League predictions. In fact, you've probably read them twice or thrice so as to better remember them. But reading 4,000 words over and over can only take up so much of your time, and you're all obviously clamoring for more of my misguided prognostications! Well, we'll hop right into it.

AL East

Tampa Bay Rays - 90-72

This division is the very definition of a logjam. The AL Central is too, but four of those five teams are jammed up around 72 wins, not 87. So, this division is the very definition of a logjam worth caring about and following closely. The Rays are clearly the team in this division with the fewest questions, and are quite possibly the team with the most talent. Thus, it's only natural that they rise to the top. On the offensive side, it starts and ends with Evan Longoria. If he plays a whole, healthy season, he's virtually guaranteed a top-5 MVP finish. His games played, though, have fallen over the last 4 years (157>151>133>74), so there's some risk. Ben Zobrist is on the Rays' depth chart at five different positions, and having a guy like that allows you to really exploit matchups and platoon advantages. BJ Upton's gone, but Desmond Jennings can be a borderline star if he can get his average up from .246. He's got 20 HR/40 SB potential. There are some new, role-filling faces in James Loney at 1B and Yuniel Escobar at SS (who the Rays got on the cheap following a poor season that was probably something of a fluke), and this offense will be solid at worst and spectacular if Longoria, Jennings, and Zobrist can each manage to perform closer to their talent ceilings than talent floors. The pitching staff is very strong from the top-down. They have a true front-line ace in Cy Young winner David Price, a potential Cy Young contender (in a few years) in Matt Moore, and a great back end with Jeremy Hellickson (the most statistically anomalous pitcher in baseball), Alex Cobb, and fill-in #5 Roberto Hernandez (who used to be known by his fake name Fausto Carmona). Their closer, Fernando Rodney, put up a .60 ERA en route to a 5th-place Cy Young finish. These guys are actually the AL's version of the St. Louis Cardinals. Good everywhere, and always have a young player ready to step in.

Boston Red Sox - 87-75

Two years ago I picked this team to get 18 more wins than they actually did. Last year I had them pegged for 22 more wins than they got. So, they're likely gonna be back in the 60s if history is any indication. But, just looking at this team, there's still a ton to like. Will Middlebrooks has a chance to be a star at 3B, and sooner rather than later. Easily has 40+ HR potential. Dustin Pedroia continues to be incredibly productive, and had a much better second half last year. Jackie Bradley Jr is a popular ROY pick, and it appears as though the starting spot in LF is his to lose (Jonny Gomes is a very capable replacement should the rookie struggle). JBJr is joined by Jacoby Ellsbury and Shane Victorino, who should all make this an exciting - if not exactly phenomenal - outfield. They still have Jarrod Longname catching, and with Mike Napoli and Papi Ortiz at 1B and DH, should not want for power. The pitching staff is where the real questions are. Jon Lester went 9-14 last year, and his ERA jumped 1.35, to 4.82. The man should snag a good comeback season, and none of the major prediction engines believe he'll post an ERA above 4. Like all of the Red Sox, Clay Buccholz started very poorly last season and then did quite well after people stopped paying attention to him. Felix Doubrant has some good upside, and Ryan Dempster and John Lackey, while not guaranteed to be "good" at this point in their career, can do more than enough to help this team win if the offense is there behind them. Which, as you see, I actually think will be more often than not.

Toronto Blue Jays - 86-76

When the Marlins bought all those players last year, I wasn't buying it. Hence, when the Blue Jays bought the Marlins this year, I'm not buying it. Ok, maybe 86-76 is pretty close to "buying it," but I don't think this team will get into the playoffs. They probably should. I just don't think they will. Here's why: R.A. Dickey won't come too close to his Cy Young numbers. Not at 38 (probably doesn't matter for a knuckleball pitcher). Not in the AL (this is more meaningful). Not in the best division in baseball (more meaningful still). Not in a hitter-friendly ballpark (a big deal). Now, listen. Knuckleballers don't change too much from year to year; he'll probably be about 15-10 with a 3.5 ERA. Very good, but not great. Josh Johnson was nowhere near his dominant self when he returned from his injury, and a loss of about 1.5 mph from his fastball may be why. It's unlikely he'll ever get that back. Mark Buehrle is merely average at this point in his career, and Brandon Morrow and JA Happ could be anywhere between great and middling. The offense seems to be there: Reyes, Bautista, the other M. Cabrera (that'd be Melchior) and the late-peaking Edwin Encarnacion. Man, I feel dumb writing this, but I'm just not convinced this team can hold up in this tough division. Just call me a Doubting Thomas. Blue Jays in the playoffs? I'll believe it when I see it.

New York Yankees - 83-79

I have, at various points over the past month, had this team first in the division, last in the division, and everywhere in between. I finally settled on this record for them. It sort of symbolizes two things. First, I don't believe they're going to crash and burn like a lot of people do. Ultimately, all the injuries they have now might deprive them of 2 or 3 wins over the course of the season. It's not like Curtis Granderson missing a month is going to take them from 90 wins to 75. Second, though, I still don't think they have as much talent as 3 other teams in this division, and that's sad for Yankees' fans everywhere. I mean, Vernon Wells. As an upgrade. That's a problem. Robinson Cano's going to be amazing. Derek Jeter will be a little above average, and for someone his age, that's amazing. But it's unclear how much their lineup can stave off deterioration, and they're not exactly packed with bench talent. A lot of people have made a lot of noise about how much speed CC's fastball is losing, and at 33 years an 300 lbs, there's a lot of reason to be worried about whether he can physically hold up. He didn't even average 90 on his fastball in his first start. Phil Hughes has pretty much used up his upside, and Hiroki Kuroda will be above average at best. Can Andy Pettitte get anything done at 41 now? Maybe. Maybe not. Expecting 10 wins from him is generous. So, ultimately, this is a good team in a great division. That means that they'll beat up on the outside and be beat up when they get back inside.

Baltimore Orioles - 73-89

Definitely the best team in the majors that also happens to be the worst team in their division. But, despite last year's ridiculous playoff run, there's just no justification for picking this team to be over .500. I just keep yelling "their pitching staff isn't good" into the eternal empty cosmic void, and the void responds by giving them one-run wins and walkoffs. Well, not this year. Jason Hammel is a good #3, but he's not an Ace, and it's unclear how he's going to do coming back from his knee injury (when he tried to return last year, his ERA spiked and he hurt himself again). The trio of Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, an Jake Arrieta could literally finish with 20 fewer wins than losses. As fangraphs notes of Miguel Gonzalez, who put up a 9-4 record last year: "there's a reason the 29-year-old didn't debut until last season - he's not that good." The pitching performance from last year was unexplainable, except that to say that it's statistically explainable to have, every season or two, a couple statistically unexplainable results. The Orioles won a lot more games than their play says they should have last season. Plain and simple. There's some upside in the lineup, sure: Matt Wieters is a great talent at C, Manny Machado should be an all-star in a couple of years, and Adam Jones and Nick Markakis are good lineup anchors. But JJ Hardy's not getting any younger, nor is Brian Roberts. There's just not enough here; the talent level is simply lower than all of the other ones in their division. In the AL Central, they'd be 2nd or 3rd. But they're in the AL East, and that means 5th.

AL Central

Detroit Tigers - 95-67

For the second year in a row, the Tigers are the team most likely to reach the playoffs, by virtue of being somewhere between a head and a torso above the rest of their division. Miguel Cabrera hit for the Triple Crown last year, and part of the reason he did that was because people had to pitch to him. Cabrera's walk rate fell from 15.7 to 9.5 (that's a huge drop) primarily because he suddenly had Prince Fielder behind him. The Prince hit .313 with 30 HRs - it's likely that first number will go down and the second will go up this year - and that prevented pitchers from going up there and throwing 4 out of the zone, just hoping Miggy would get himself out. Well, that basically meant that, for every 15 chances Cabrera had to hit the ball before, he had 16 last year. An increase like that is the kind that pushes someone from elite to legendary. It's a no-win for pitchers facing this lineup; Austin Jackson is a star-in-the-making in CF, Jhonny "Not a Typo" Peralta is an above-average hitting SS, and Alex Avila, despite taking a step back last season, is a real + at C. And, with all of that, their hitting might not be better than their pitching. This pitching staff goes toe-to-toe with the Nationals'. Verlander is Verlander. When he steps on the mound in the first, he's the best pitcher in baseball, and he gets better every inning. Max Scherzer had a huge year last campaign, and would be the #1 starter on at least 10 teams and probably 15. I've always loved Doug Fister, and Anibal Sanchez/Rick Porcello give the Tigers a 4 and 5 with a no-hitter and a should've-been perfect game. Again, ridiculous. And the thing the Tigers have that the Nationals don't (other than a few more years, which should temper expectations just a tiny bit) is a #6 starter with Ace potential, who graces Detroit's bullpen to start the year in the person of Drew Smyly. At just 23, he needs to really develop his stamina (he started to fall off around the 90 IP mark last year), but can strike out over 9/9 and walk fewer than a third of that. Joaquin Benoit may not be the perfect closer, but he'll fill in just fine for a year while Bruce Rondon works on controlling his 100 mph fastball at AAA, and many people feel that Al "Also Not a Typo" Alburquerque is one of the most useful non-closer arms in baseball. All in all, the most complete team in the AL, and probably in the majors. They'll cruise.

White Sox - 83-79

Robin Ventura absolutely deserved absolutely deserved Manager of the Year last year, because the 85 wins he squeezed out of these guys were at or higher than the top of almost every projection. These guys will get up above .500 again thanks to beating up on the Indians and Twins, but, again, not a ton of upside here. Just some ho-hum offense and above-average-but-unlikely-to-be-spectacular pitching. Adam Dunn proved that his power was back, following his apocalyptic 11 HRs in 2011 with 41 last year (although he only improved his batting average from .159 to .204, and may never get back above .220), and Paul Konerko, now 37, has fallen off for 3 straight years but will still continue to do, more or less, what the Sox pay him for: drive in runs, hit some HRs with high average, and be a warm body on the right side of the infield. Gordon Beckham... remember how good he was supposed to be? Well, he's been very very bad for three years now, and a breakthrough year might only put him at league average. Alex Rios has been wildly inconsistent, and could very well hit .300/25/95, .225/12/50, or anywhere in between. Alejandro de Aza performed well in his first full big-league season last year, but probably won't steal 26 again (speed drops off fast, and he'll be 29 next week). Chris Sale is a true ace, and could very well be dominant again (if he doesn't get injured, which many are worried about because of his weird release and skinny frame). Jake Peavy pitched far better last year than his 11-12 record suggested, but Gavin Floyd pitched a little worse than his 12-11 record suggested. Jose Quintana and Dylan Axelrod will be average at best. Addison Reed is a serviceable closer, but you never like when your closer's ERA is closer to 5 than 4 (hell, you don't want your closer's ERA closer to 5 than 0). Pretty middling season from this bunch.

Kansas City Royals - 80-82

I picked these guys to get off the snide and snag a winning record last year, and the Royals rewarded me by just doing what they always seem to do, which is lose 90 games. Just like every year, there's a fair amount to like and a little more to not like. Alex Gordon is a very good player, finally finding the star potential that everyone knew he had as early as 2007. He only had 14 HRs last year, but provides great defense, double-digit steals, and a really great all-around game. Eric Hosmer was pretty disappointing last year but still has good upside (though he might not hit it this year). Mike Moustakas and Billy Butler are fine players, as is Salvador Perez. And Lorenzo Cain. So is Alcides Escobar. In fact, only Jeff Francoeur in RF looks like an outright liability. A lot of the questions are about the pitching staff. James Shields and Wade Davis (back in his normal starting role) are over from Tampa Bay, but that might not be that great, actually. Davis will be average at best, and Shields - of whom I am admittedly a fan - is moving to a more hitter-friendly park, will no longer have the majors' best defense (by far, if stats are to be believed) behind him, and has averaged 222 IP over the last 6 years, which - now that he's 31 - makes him an injury risk. Jeremy Guthrie simply has no upside, and hardly strikes out anyone. Luis Mendoza will be an average 5 at best, and it looks like the Royals picked up Ervin Santana a year or two too late. These guys are the exact opposite of the White Sox: above-average lineup (with a small chance of actually being spectacular), and poor, aging pitching. Just under the coin flip.

Cleveland Indians - 73-89

Not much to like here. Not much at all. Carlos Santana will continue to put up above-average hitting numbers for a catcher, but Fangraphs has shown that the Santana/Marson duo behind the plate actually outright harms their pitchers in that they're terrible at framing (for instance, Derek Lowe probably got 80 fewer strikes per 1000 pitches last year because of those two). Pitch framing probably has the highest ratio of how-much-it-actually-matters to how-much-people-think-it-actually-matters (outfield assists are probably the opposite). Jason Kipnis may very well continue to improve. Asdrubal Cabrera and Michael Brantley could break out for .300/10/70 with 25 SBs, and Drew Stubbs's batting average probably won't decline for the fourth season in a row (.267>.255>.243>.213 isn't very reassuring, however). But their best hitter is now taking Stubbs's place in Cincinnati, and there have been very few improvements aside from Terry Francona, if any, on a team that won a very disappointing 68 games last year. And the pitching staff doesn't inspire confidence. As fangraphs has noted, Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Brett Myers would be a league-average 3-4-5. When a league-average 3-4-5 is your 1-2-3, you've got a problem. Zach McAllister's still only 25, but has a lifetime 4.47 ERA and gives up a ton of home runs, and this team's 5th starter is a Cinderella Story if we ever saw one: Scott Kazmir, who pitched so incredibly poorly in 2010 and 2011 that he pitched himself right out of the league and is now trying to make a comeback. And he just hurt his abdomen yesterday and may have to go on the DL. This is a team with a very low ceiling.

Minnesota Twins - 64-98

Speaking of low ceilings, our buddies in Minnesota are in complete rebuilding mode. Joe Mauer will continue to be valuable - although less so with every game he plays at 1B - but that's about it. Last year, this team's bright spot was its outfield, which accounted for huge portion of their offense. So, the went ahead and got rid of two of the three (Denard Span and Ben Revere) for one slightly-above-average SP (Vance Worley) and two pitching prospects. This team had better have a killer rotation in 5 years, because if they don't the generally well-regarded front office may be run out of town. Poor injury-riddled Justin Morneau doesn't appear as though he'll ever be more than a shell of his former self, and Trevor Plouffe has power and not much else (and was, in fact, the third-worst fielding 3B last year by UZR, and the worst to not play in Colorado). Pedro Florimon is a stopgap with no offensive upside, Chris Parmelee should be average at best, and Brian Dozier and Aaron Hicks are still 1 and 3 years away from contributing, it seems. That leaves the only non-Mauer bright spot as Josh Willingham, who should bash about 25 HRs and be one of the team's best hitters-for-average if he can manage .255. Meh. On the pitching side, this team has no Ace. This team has no #2. They've just got a bunch of number 3s who are either unproven or proven to be bad. Scott Diamond has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the majors, Vance Worley will always have a place in my heart but is really not that good, and Kevin Correia's posted a 12-11 record three of the past four years, but his numbers have been getting worse and the offense behind him will not be as good as he had in Pittsburgh. Liam Hendriks has been great in the minors and horrible in the majors, and Cole De Vries is a cool story (undrafted, from the Twin Cities) that gives up an enormous amount of home runs. This team is a lot better than the Astros, and a lot worse than every other team in the major leagues.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels - 94-68

First, let's get one thing straight: Mike Trout will not put up another 10 WAR season. It's impossible. He fell off a little towards the end of the year last year, and his career BABIP will not be .383 (although it might be .345, which is ridonkulous). But that doesn't mean his team won't be better. This squad is stacked. To say Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols are past their primes is like saying a billionaire doesn't have as much buying power as he did five years ago. While technically true, what with inflation and all, it's not as though the qualitative gap between billionaires and everyone else has closed all that much. Fangraphs writer Dave Cameron recently anointed Erick Aybar as the most underrated player in baseball (taking up the title formerly held by Angel Pagan), and the rest of the lineup - Howie Kendrick, Alberto Callaspo, Chris Ianetta, Peter Bourjos (one of the best fielders in baseball) and Mark Trumbo - screams "VALUE, VALUE, VALUE" everywhere you look. This offense could be near-historic (or they could be merely above-average; that's how baseball works). That being said, there's definitely some cause for concern on the pitching side of things. Jered Weaver will remain an ace, but looks to be dropping off somewhat due, in part, to shoulder troubles (despite his 20-5 record last year, his strikeouts were down while HRs were up). I expected CJ Wilson to kick butt last year, but the results were middling. The back-end is made up of three new acquisitions - Tommy Hanson (once thought of as an Ace in the making but has actually gotten worse every season), Joe Blanton (who is nothing but consistent, and serves an important role while not actually providing a ton of upside), and Jason Vargas (who's like Joe Blanton with fewer Ks and a lower ERA). This staff may have its low points, but I think there's enough plus-talent on the offensive side of things that Blanton can go out there, allow 4 runs, and still get the win fairly often.

Texas Rangers - 91-71

The Rangers have the unanimously-described most incredible, exciting, talented, amazing, once-in-a-generation prospect, and they have no bloody place to play him. If you don't know who Jurickson Profar is yet, you will. The 19-year-old shortstop projects as a perennial All Star. In what's certainly a good problem to have, the Rangers just locked up the best defensive SS in the majors - Elvis Andrus - to an 8-year extension, and have the always-consistent Ian Kinsler at 2B. Many are predicting a move to 1B for Kinsler, or a possible trade of Profar for an All Star pitcher. Just know that, even without Josh Hamilton, talent abounds in Texas. Adrian Beltre is a four-time Gold Glove winner who can smack the ball around, and the addition of AJ Pierzynski should make up well for the loss of Napoli (who's simply not a catcher anymore anyway). Leonys Martin is another youngster; he'll start in CF and try his best to figure out how to hit even while providing webgem after webgem in the field. David Murphy, Nelson Cruz, and Mitch Moreland are all the kind of guys who you want in your lineup (although Moreland's chances may be dwindling). And then there's the pitching staff, which is actually probably the second-best in the AL. Yu Darvish's 8.2 innings of perfection come as absolutely no surprise to stats-heads, who have known he was incredible almost since his first start in the majors. He's a strong Cy Young candidate. Matt Harrison and Derek Holland are each good bets for 15 wins, and Alexei Ogando (who proved himself an elite bullpen arm) could be a #2 on a lot of teams. Nick Tepesch has never pitched in the majors, but earned the last roster spot and needs only be close-to-average for this team to make the playoffs once again.

Oakland Athletics - 83-79

Like the Orioles, these guys came from far off the radar last year to make the playoffs; unlike the Orioles, their season wasn't particularly "fluky." I don't think this team will get back to the playoffs, largely because their talent is either old or young (and, either way, apt to be inconsistent), but they will still manage some solid stretches (inconsistent talent is still talent). Josh Reddick was a breakout star at age 25 last year. An extraordinary percentage of the balls he puts in play are fly balls, meaning his batting average will probably never improve too much from the .242 mark he put up last year (has BABIP was a ridiculously low .269), but he's a great fielder and can consistently hit 30-35 HRs with 8-15 SBs. Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes showed that the hype surrounding him was extremely justified; he went .292/23/82 with 16 SBs. Add in Coco Crisp and you've got an outfield that can hit 70 HRs and steal 70 bases, which is fantastic. It's definitely one of the best units in the league, and the clear strength of this squad. The infield paints a much bleaker picture: Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson are a shaky duo on the corners (both of whom probably overperformed last year), Eric Sogard is a journeyman at 2B, and the SS duo of Scott Sizemore (missed all of 2012 with a torn ACL) and Jed Lowrie (has been hurt each of the last three seasons) could be average or better when healthy, which might be about 80 games between them. John Jaso surprised for the Mariners at C last year, but might be a little above-average with the bat and a little below-average with the arm for Seattle's intradivision rivals. In the rotation, Brett Anderson pitches like an ace when healthy but has only gone more than 19 games once in his career (he did get back to the bigs just in time for the playoff push last season). Young arms Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone could each improve this year and make this a real plus front end. Dan Straily and AJ Griffin - also young, making this one of the youngest rotations in the majors - are a little bit away, but Griffin in particular has great upside. As the Rangers and Angels age, this team's pitching core will develop into something nasty, and a few tweaks to the infield personnel would put these guys on the brink of a mini-dynasty. Next year. They're still a season away.

Seattle Mariners - 74-88

This team will have a tough time staying relevant, especially in this division. This will be their first whole year in what seems like forever without Ichiro, and their offensive woes should continue. Kyle Seager is a possible breakout star at 3B, and could be really good for a really long time (especially as he continues to learn 3B, which isn't his natural position but was where he was needed due to the Chone Figgins debacle). Brendan Ryan's a good defensive SS with no bat, and Dustin Ackley could still end up a good 2B but was supposed to have been further along by now. Justin Smoak played very poorly in his first 250 major league games and went berserk with the bat in his last 30; that was likely a fluke, and he'll probably be a significant minus at 1B. Michael Saunders is entering the prime of his career and could be a 20/20 guy, but Franklin Gutierrez and Michael Morse don't inspire any confidence: take away Morse's one good year (3.1 WAR in 2011 for the Nats) and he's put up just 1.5 WAR over parts of seven seasons, including 0.0 in 102 games last year. The Mariners obviously have a perennial Cy Young candidate in Felix Hernandez, who has 99 wins (and would have another 20 or 30 if he was playing on a league-average team) and is still only 26 (his birthday is next week). Ridiculous. After him, though, it drops off fast: Hisashi Iwakuma, who could be average-or-so playing his 2nd MLB season as a 32 year old with some success in Japan, Joe Saunders, who can eat innings but won't ever inspire fear, Blake Beavan, who has the lowest strikeout rate in the major leagues, and Brandon Maurer, a 22-year-old, 6'5" righty with no major league innings pitched. This team will allow more runs than league average, and score fewer runs than league average. That puts their record decidedly on the wrong side of .500.

Houston Astros - 54-108

The Astros' first year in the AL will probably be their worst. There are a couple guys who might develop into something exciting in a few years, and a lot of guys who will be warm bodies and fill spots on the field until the guys in the minors develop into guys who might develop into something exciting in a few years. In the former group is Jose Altuve, a 22-year-old SS with lots of speed but little power and defensive skill, Matt Dominguez, a 23-year-old 3B with a good glove and average power, and Chris Carter, who at 26 has flashed big power but needs to cut down on his lifetime K-rate of 33.2% (which has been pretty consistent over his 3 major-league stints). Rick Ankiel's a good story but not much else at this point in his career; Justin Maxwell will be average at best, Jason Castro's got a good bat but is consistently hurt, and Brett Wallace and Ronny Cedeno, who fill out the infield with significant drawbacks. On the pitching side, there aren't any real bright spots either; when your ace is a guy named Bud Norris, owner of a career 29-37 record and 4.41 ERA, you're not in for much success. Lucas Harrell actually did all right in his first major league season last year, going 11-11 with a 3.76 ERA, but is unlikely to duplicate a .500 record with this offense behind him. Philip Humber threw a perfect game and has done nothing else at all in his career, and Erik Bedard joins him in the reject bin that is the back-half of this rotation. Brad Peacock will get some starts, which is cool because his name is Peacock, and not cool because he has virtually no experience and will almost certainly take some big lumps. There's just hardly any talent on this squad. We'll see what they can do.

MVP Picks:
1. Miguel Cabrera. Come on, he's coming off a Triple Crown season. Unlike Trout's season, though, it wasn't actually inconsistent with our expectations for him. And with the lineup he's got around him... yikes.
2. Prince Fielder. I think the big guy's gonna also put up some huge numbers for the Tigers this year. Pitchers will have their choice of trying to get Miggy out or walking him and pitching to this guy. Playing the Tigers is a no-win proposition.
3. Dustin Pedroia. Call it a hunch, but I think he gets back to his little-dude, world-killing ways this year.
4. Robinson Cano. Probably the most consistent hitter in this league (other than Cabrera, who's ridiculous).
5. Adam Jones. His year-27 campaign, he's been underrated his whole career but could absolutely explode now.

No Mike Trout? That's right! We'll see if I look foolish or extremely foolish for that omission.

Cy Young:
1. Justin Verlander. Until he proves otherwise.
2. Yu Darvish. Was in this slot even before his near-perfection. Statisticians love him.
3. Chris Sale. If he can stay healthy, he should challenge for 20 wins.
4. David Price. Last year's winner should get another bump from TB's great defense.
5. Max Scherzer. Has the pieces, just needs to put them together.

Obviously, Felix is #6.

ROY: Jackie Bradley Jr.

Now time to go watch the Phillies lose!

Joe's 2013 MLB Picks: National League

My 2013 NL Picks, originally published March 31, 2013

NL East

Washington Nationals - 96-66

There's absolutely no reason the Nationals shouldn't, once again, lead the MLB in wins. So, I have them doing just that. This pitching staff is downright ridiculous, and may have even improved with the additions of Dan Haren and Rafael Soriano. In terms of batting, there's no one on this team who will be a clear top 3 NL player at each position, but - and this is the important part - there's no one here who will clearly not be in the top 5 or so for the league. Everywhere you look on this team you see upside, upside, upside. Last year, the still-teenaged Bryce Harper ended up being fantastic. He was energetic and added great defensive upside. But here's the really scary part for other teams: from his first game on April 28th until August 15th - that's 371 ABs - he hit .245 with 10 HRs. From that point on - in 162 ABs - he hit .327 with 11 HRs. That's horrifying. Even though, still being only 20, he very likely won't pick up exactly where he left off, it should take him a lot fewer than 371 ABs to find his stroke. And then, watch out: the NL may have another Ryan Braun.

Atlanta Braves - 89-73

I'm not as high on this Atlanta squad as many are, but I still think they'll get back to the playoffs. Jason Heyward is a popular MVP pick this year. Am I on the bandwagon? Scroll down to the awards section at the bottom of the page to see! Any way you look at it, though, this is a team with average-to-above-average pitching and clearly above average hitting. Everyone's really excited about the Upton brothers, and why shouldn't they be? They both hit their 99th HRs on the same day, and their 100th HRs on the same day, so the Braves should be getting 2-for-the-price-of-1 quite a bit. Their SS Andrelton Simmons could be very good very fast, providing solid average and power and plus-fielding and -speed. I've always been a bit hesitant about this pitching staff, but they really proved me wrong last year. Tim Hudson will turn 38 this year, but he's never had a losing record and, save his injury-filled 2009 campaign, in which he only started 7 ML games, he's never posted fewer than 11 wins. He's quietly incredible, so there's no reason to think he'll slow down. A little drop-off from both Kris Medlen and Craig Kimbrel can be expected, but that should be counterbalanced by Brandon Beachy's return from Tommy John surgery sometime around the All-Star break. He should be in no rush, however, because his spot's being filled by 22-year-old Julio Teheran, who many are projecting for NL ROY honors. This team is nearly as solid as the Nationals with only about half the upside, and that's why they're halfway between .500 and the Nationals.

Philadelphia Phillies - 83-79

This is generous, but some of my doom-and-gloom forebodings have actually been dispelled by my research over the past few days. Domonic Brown has been hitting incredibly well in Spring Training. That usually doesn't mean anything, but there are demonstrable reasons to believe that a change in mechanics, rather than randomness over a small period of time, is bringing about this change. The Phillies still have a top-5 starting rotation (although we'll see if Halladay's 2012 season was a valley or a cliff), with John Lannan and Kyle Kendrick replacing Vance Worley and Joe Blanton, and the rotation, with new addition Mike Adams, actually projects as league-average or better. I really like Ben Revere in CF, although he's very, very likely to finish his career with more inside-the-park HRs than normal ones. Chase Utley is still a very productive hitter when he's healthy (and the difference between him playing 100 games and 140 game will be enormous for the Phils), and the catcher position, with lots a Carlos Ruiz and a fair amount of Eric Kratz, looks like a plus. That's where the good news ends, though, as Howard is now an outright liability at 1B, Michael Young is old and pretty much worn out, Jimmy still has some pop but also a lot of pop-ups, and the corner OF spots - barring a real Brown breakthrough (see above) - are going to be well-below league average. I think they finish just on the right side of .500 thanks to their pitching, but there's very little upside here.

New York Mets - 74-88

With today's news that Johan Santana will need surgery and very well might call it a career, this projection might be a touch rosy (although it's unclear how much value he would've added anyway). With RA Dickey gone and new acquisition (and perennial Joe Ruby Favorite) Shaun Marcum hurt to start the year, the opening day rotation will be Niese, Gee, and three bums, making a grand total of 5 bums. I kid, I kid, I actually like Niese, but the Mets will have to score lots of runs to keep up, and they're probably not going to be able to do it. David Wright put up a really great season last year, but in his age-30 season it's going to be hard for him to repeat. Their outfield is made up of two rejects and the third-worst position player in the major leagues last year in terms of WAR (ahead of Eric Hosmer, who gets a pass because he's just 23 and has big upside, and - gulp - new Phillies' acquisition Michael Young). It's possible that Daniel Murphy can get that average back up in the ~.315 range, and Ike Davis could keep the 32 HRs while raising that .227 average, but right now, the major plus side for this team is that they're going to be giving lots of playing time to a player named Jordany Valdespin. And I don't mean to imply that he's an exciting prospect or anything (a 25-y.o. who projects as about league average). But man he's got a cool name. I'll giggle every time I'm watching a game and he comes up.

Miami Marlins - 61-101

Fangraphs ranked each team by how much production they were expected to get from each position this year. For the NL, there are 10 positions (breaking up SP and RP). The Marlins project as the worst in the majors at 4 of them (C, 2B, 3B, and LF) and Bottom 5 in 4 more (1B, SS, CF, and SP). The good news: they've got maybe the very brightest young star in the National League in Giancarlo Stanton, who very well might go .280/40/120 with plus-fielding. The bad news: all the rest. I can't take credit for this sentiment, but it's definitely true: if you're not going to win 70 games, you might as well not win 70 games with a cheap lineup of crap players than with an expensive lineup of underachieving players.

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds - 93-69

Lots and lots to like here. The new addition - Shin-Soo Choo - upgrades them enough to make up for the possibility that their starting pitching falls off a bit from last year. Joey Votto is by and large Fangraphs' favorite hitter, they seem to have found a high-value guy behind the plate in 32-year-old Ryan Hanigan, and the Reds won't be surrendering many late leads with Johnathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, and Aroldis Chapman pitching the 7th, 8th, and 9th. The Reds are filled with players entering or still in their prime, and should have at least 3 good years left with this group. Johnny Cueto's BB/9 has fallen every year he's been in the league, and there's good reason to believe he may actually improve on his 19-9 campaign from last year. The 27-year-old could have a monster season if he remains durable enough to snag 200+ IP, which he did for just the first time last year.

St. Louis Cardinals - 88-74

This shouldn't really be a surprising pick. The last five years, the Cardinals have won 88, 90, 86, 91, and 86 games. They are the model of consistency. And, for the sixth year in a row now, there's a lot to like about this squad. Listen, Yadier Molina isn't going to repeat last year's numbers - there's practically no way he could, right? (watch me eat my words) - but he'll still be one of the top 3 catchers in the Major Leagues (fangraphs puts him second, right behind Posey). Allen Craig looks poised to have his best year ever, and could very well post .300/25/100. You'll get decent production at every position (except maybe 2B), and the starting pitching's right up there with anyone's. The loss of Kyle Lohse should be made up for by improvements from Wainwright (who was still bothered by TJ surgery in the first half but got back to his old self after the break) and Lance Lynn (who probably won't get 18 wins again but should pitch more innings than ever), as well as the call-up of Shelby Miller, their current fifth starter and popular NL ROY pick. Holliday has been virtually the same player for the last three years now, and, although he's 33 and might drop off a bit, there's no reason to think the wheels will come off any time soon. If they do, though, and Carlos Beltran also falls apart (last two seasons: 151 and 142 games; two before that: 64 and 81, plus he turns 36 in April), they might not have enough offensive options. The outlook is healthy, but this is a team with above-average injury risk.

Milwaukee Brewers - 85-77

I've always been something of a closet Brewers' fan, and this team could very well finish below .500, but I like this team to beat their projections and challenge for the division for most of the year. Ryan Braun will continue to be fantastic, and should be good for at least .315/35/105. Aramis Ramirez, Johnathan Lucroy, and Carlos Gomez are all above average, you know what you'll get with Rickie Weeks (That is, great power and decent speed for a 2B, combined with poor average and terrible fielding, thus breaking about even), and last year's under-the-radar acquisition of Norichika Aoki turned out to be a great find, as he was quietly consistently good in CF. So, what I'm saying is this: If the Brewers fall on their faces this year, it's not going to be because of their hitting. The pitching staff is really going to need to outperform their projections for 84-86 wins to become a reality. The recent signing of Kyle Lohse helps (I've been a big fan of his ever since his nice stopgap performance for the Phils), and Yovani Gallardo should continue to be electric, if not exactly brilliant, but the losses of Greinke and Marcum mean that the back end of this rotation is looking grim. Marco Estrada actually pitched better last year than his 5-7 record suggests, and there's some good upside from 23-year-old Wily Peralta and Mike Fiers (who can definitely be an above-average fifth starter), but it's not clear how the situation will materialize. Plus, the bullpen is terrible (29th, by FG's estimation).

Pittsburgh Pirates - 72-90

Unfortunately, it'll be 21 straight years on the wrong side of the coin flip for the Black and Gold. This team is actually just like a slightly-less-talented version of the Brewers: one great, MVP-caliber OF, a lot of exciting-but-flawed infield bats, an average-to-below-average rotation and a crummy 'pen. Obviously, it's impossible not to heap accolades on Andrew McCutchen, who finished behind only Posey and Braun in last year's MVP race. He was good-to-very-good from 22-24, and stepped it up to elite last year. His BAPIP was enormous last year, jumping from .291 in 2011 to .375 in 2012. For non-baseball-stats people, that means he's very unlikely to hit .327/31/107 again. But if he can put up, say, .310/25/95 with 25 steals, he'll be right back in the MVP discussion. The Pirates' infield has a ton of power potential, with Jones, Walker, Barmes and Alvarez hitting 27, 14, 8, and 30 last year. The 31-year-old Jones is unlikely to ever get over 22-24 again, but there are reasons (ranging from bad to good) to believe that the other three will actually improve on their totals from last year. They'll also strike out a ton but, you know, with a team that's just trying to get over .500, you'll take the good with the bad. The pitching staff has all of the questions and none of the upside of the Brewers. It was really good for Burnett to get out of NY, but at 36 he's probably not going to be much better than above-average. He's certainly not an ace. Wandy Rodriguez is also falling off at age 34. James McDonald is a quandary, as he kicked butt in the first half of last year and limped to the finish with an ERA over 12 in his last 3 months. He could end up very bad or quite good, but will probably fall in between. Ultimately, just not enough talent, despite McCutchen. Another losing season.

Chicago Cubs - 71-91

Things are actually looking up for the Cubs, and they could be a team that surprises people and approaches .500. But it's hard to go from 101 losses to 81 losses, and their quiet talent up the middle won't be enough. Alfonso Soriano still produces (though not nearly at a rate commensurate with his contract), but David DeJesus and Nate Schierholtz won't raise any eyebrows. Darwin Barney is one of the most underrated players in the NL, and even though we've been waiting 3 years for Starlin Castro to finally break out, he's 23, so we'll be willing to wait a few more. He went .283/14/78 last year, but .320/15/85 isn't out of the question. Plus, there's a darn good possibility Anthony Rizzo will break out this year. Ultimately, I think this infield's about 1 year away from being really good. Jeff Samardzija's improved every year in the league, and he's got the stuff to become a borderline ace sooner rather than later. Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood, and Scott Feldman are a decent 2-3-4. So, I think they get halfway back from a bad, bad low to .500 this year. It'll be up to Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer to get them the rest of the way and beyond by the latter half of this decade.

Houston Ast.... Just kidding '-)

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers - 92-70

If you were paying attention, you know that I thought all that money the Dodgers spent last year could buy them happiness. I still think that. It's just been delayed a year. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier should be fully healthy, and, while Carl Crawford's time with the Red Sox was, let's just say it, downright abysmal, even a tiny return to TB form should make this outfield one of the few best in the NL. Their talented Ellis and Ellis duo is very solid, and having a good 2B and C is a great way to build a team. There's no way that Adrian and Hanley will not improve on their combined totals from last year, even with Ramirez starting the season on the DL. We all know what Clayton Kershaw can do and has done (he's the closest thing in the NL to Justin Verlander; the fact that he's not that close to Verlander is a testament to the freakish nature of the Tigers' Ace), and I've long been a Chad Billingsley apologist. With Zack Greinke and electric bullpen arm Kenley Jansen, this squad should be above average almost everywhere. I think this is finally the year the Dodgers' investment pays off. Will they pay for it down the road? We'll see.

San Francisco Giants - 86-76

A bit of a fall-off for the returning champs, I reckon. Recall that last year I picked this team to meet-or-exceed expectations and win the division, so know that I'm not simply badmouthing them. They won the WS three years ago, and followed it with an 86-76 record. So, I'm guessing history will simply repeat itself. It's worth note that the Giants are the team whose statistical projection differs the greatest from public perception about them; many people are expecting 90-95 wins, while Fangraphs ranks them as only the 14th-best team in the majors (although, as FG takes tremendous pains to note, projections are all going to be extremely centered around the median, so the difference between the 7th-best and 14th-best teams, in terms of projections, is approximately one win). But here's where I see the falling-off between last year's 94-win team and this year's squad: Buster Posey will again be an MVP candidate but can't sustain last year's numbers. Hunter Pence is a better fantasy player than Melky Cabrera, but Melky means a lot more to a team, and so that replacement will overall hurt the Giants (unless Melky's production drops way down after his failed drug test, which I don't see happening). I'm also not as much of a fan of this pitching squad as most people are. I think Ryan Vogelsong's magical 2-year run ends sometime around the All Star Break (when he turns 36), Tim Lincecum will be better (how could he not be?) but is unlikely to find his Cy Young form, and Barry Zito is... well, come on... he's Barry Zito. In his age 30-34 seasons with the Giants, he went 33-61. So does his age-35 15-8 mark sound more like a trend or an aberration to you? Me too.

Arizona Diamondbacks - 84-78

There's a lot to like about this solid team, but they don't seem to have any real stars. I would actually put this 84 at the low end of their expectation, but I just can't see how these guys can separate themselves from the Dodgers and Giants. I will say this - if everything comes together - and I give that about a 20% chance of happening - this team could be the closest thing to this year's version of the 2012 Nationals. But I don't think everything will come together. Aaron Hill flew under the radar for a HUGE 5.4 WAR season last year, but that followed up 1.1 and 0.5 campaigns, and he's now on the wrong side of 30. They flipped Justin Upton for Martin Prado, which filled a void at 3rd AND opened up CF for Adam Eaton (no, not that Adam Eaton, a different, good, ROY-caliber Adam Eaton). Miguel Montero is one of the five best catchers in the NL, but aside from him, they'll be average-to-above-average at every single other position in the field. This team's real strength is its pitching, but saying that gives one pause when one sees the names in the rotation: Kennedy, Cahill, Miley, McCarthy, and Corbin. Ian Kennedy is good, but he's not a true #1. Cahill will do what he always does: strike out almost no one, allow very few HRs, walk a few too many, and win a game or two more than he loses. Wade Miley was fantastic as a rookie last year, but sophomore slumps happen all the time. No one knows if Brandon McCarthy will be the same after the season-ending line drive last year and, if he is, he's still one of the most injury-prone SPs out there. And, finally, who's Patrick Corbin? Meh, a .500 youngster who's exactly like every other pitcher on this staff. I just don't see this team doing anything spectacular. They could. But I don't see it.

Colorado Rockies - 77-85

This team was BAD last year. Make no mistake. But I see them taking a significant step forward, due in no small part to the return of a (presumably) healthy Troy Tulowitzki. He continues to be one of the most skilled players in the NL, and the only thing between him and monster numbers is his health. Carlos Gonzalez has also been bothered by injuries, but, again, he should be able to improve on last season's numbers (he's 27 this year, which is sort of the magic number). The outfield will be solid with CarGo, Dexter Fowler (who actually, because of all the injuries, led the team in WAR last year), and Michael Cuddyer, who has, for his career, performed far better in odd-numbered years than even-numbered ones. Any significance to that? Who the hell knows? For as kind as I'm being to their lineup, the pitching staff remains pretty abysmal. Jorge De La Rosa is back from TJ faster than expected (10 months; average is 12 or 13), so he's extremely risky given that he's old and he's never met expectations. And that's the bright spot. Yikes. The whole rotation is made up of guys whose names start with J, and is mostly guys whose names start with J who no one else wanted (Jeff Francis, Jon Garland, etc). This many wins is probably optimistic for these guys, but you just can't discount how high the ceiling could be for Tulo and CarGo if they both stay healthy and go off at the same time.

San Diego Padres - 67-95

Chase Headley had an enormous breakout year in his last campaign, snagging 7.2 WAR with a .286/31/115 line. That most likely means one of two things: last year was a fluke, and he'll fall way off this season, or last year was for real, and he'll probably be traded. Remember how I just said 27 was the magic number for hitters? Well, whaddya know: he was 27 last year. He should be all-star caliber through his early 30s, but it's unlikely he'll ever duplicate his monster 2012 season. The Padres have a bunch of players who are a year or two away still: Yonder Alonso (who needs to work on his power), Alexi Amaristo (who, like the similar Emilio ,can play every position outside the battery), and Jedd Gyorko, who at 2B (he'll play his natural 3B until Headley returns from injury, but will probably then shift to 2B or LF) is a popular ROY pick. As for the hurlers, their best pitcher - Cory Luebke - will miss a few months to start the year, Edinson Volquez will continue to walk 5 per 9, making .500 the highest reasonable goal, and Clayton Richard might - might - strike out 5 per 9 and snag anther 14-14 campaign. So, the final verdict: The upside in the outfield is aging, the upside in the infield is a couple years away, and the upside in the pitching staff is non-existent.

MVP Picks:

1. I've gotta do it. Troy Tulowitzki. I just get the feeling he's going to have an enormous season, justify all that money the Rockies decided to give him, and take home the hardware.
2. Joey Votto. Maybe the best pure hitter in the NL.
3. Jason Heyward. Has a real chance to go from very good to great this year, especially with the Braves' boosted offense around him.
4. Giancarlo Stanton. Only this far down because his team is terrible, it's tough to get the accolades without both power and speed, and, hell, he may get traded tomorrow. No one knows with the Marlins.
5. Ryan Braun. Model of consistency.

Cy Young Picks:

1. Zack Greinke. Finally, I think, he'll be at home.
2. Stephen Strasburg. Still not convinced the Nationals will give him a chance to do it this year. It may not matter. Also note that he's a damn good hitter (although this has nothing to do with Cy Young, he may just get the Silver Slugger too).
3. Cole Hamels. IF the Phillies make the playoffs, it'll be because Cole puts up a career year.
4. Johnny Cueto. Maybe the second-highest upside (behind Strasburg).
5. Clayton Kershaw. Too talented not to include. He might be top-3 for the next 5 years.

ROY: Adam Eaton

AL will come out sometime next week! ENJOY!!!