MOST RECENT RANKINGS HERE.
Everyone! Gather 'round!
This is my first original post on Joe's Sports Blog, and is the first edition of the Ruby Rankings this year.
The Ruby Rankings are my original NCAA Football Computer Ranking; I've been publishing some form of these for a few years now, and have refined them to what I think is a pretty successful measure of how good the 126 FBS teams are. In particular, the Ruby Rankings were quite successful at predicting last year's Bowl Games in a little Confidence Pick 'Em I ran. The Ruby Rankings are based on a few basic ideas (feel free to skip to the Rankings if you're not interested in theory):
- Strength of Schedule is a big deal. In particular, the Ruby Rankings use a modified RPI (Ratings Percentage Index, see here) as a large basis of the calculation. The best measure of a team's ability is who they've defeated and who has defeated them.
- Where many ratings systems get it wrong, however, is that who a team's defeated and been defeated by is not the only measure of a team's ability. That is to say: STATS MATTER. Many ratings systems tout the fact that statistics do not play a role in their systems as a virtue, because - as we all know - certain teams are always running up the score, no one cares if you give up a turnover when you're winning or losing by 35, and at the end of the day, all that really matters is whether you win or lose. That's a good philosophy for a coach, but a ratings system that completely ignores statistics is throwing away useful information. So, taking into account and attempting to correct for the limitations that will be present in any effort to use statistics as part of a prediction/ranking, the Ruby Rankings are in-part Statistics-Based. Sorry about the liberal use of bold in this paragraph, but this is a big pet peeve of mine. A team that's statistically dominated very good opponents, and has, say, an 11-1 record, is almost always going to be better, in the long run, then a team that has barely defeated lots of mediocre teams but has managed to get the win every time. For a particular example of the universal, see: Alabama 42, Notre Dame 14. In the regular season, Alabama barely lost to Texas A&M. Notre Dame almost lost to Purdue. Tell me which one's worse.
- The ranking should be Quantitative rather than Ordinal. That is, I'll give you where each team ranks, but I'll also show you that team's raw score so you can compare.
- The system is loosely SCALED, with 1000 being the kind of score a national championship contender would get and 0 being among the worst teams in the country. Last year, before the bowl games, the highest rating was Alabama (1054) and the lowest was Idaho (-84). Some tweaks to the formula since last year have shifted the scores slightly lower overall.
So, the premier (Week 8) RUBY RANKINGS for 2013/14:
Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score
1. Florida State (6-0): 1042
2. Oregon (7-0): 931
3. Alabama (7-0): 892
4. Missouri (7-0): 874
5. Baylor (6-0): 841
6. Ohio State (7-0): 826
7. Stanford (6-1): 824
8. Arizona State (5-2): 810
9. UCLA (5-1): 787
10. Clemson (6-1): 782
11. Virgina Tech (6-1): 765
12. Oklahoma (6-1): 763
13. Miami (FL) (6-0): 756
14. Auburn (6-1): 754
15. Louisville (6-1): 741
16. LSU (6-2): 730
17. Georgia (4-3): 723
18. Michigan (6-1): 720
19. BYU (5-2): 707
20. Texas A&M (5-2): 706
21. Wisconsin (5-2): 697
22. Texas Tech (7-0): 697
23. UCF (5-1): 682
24. Washington (4-3): 680
25. Notre Dame (5-2): 675
26. Florida (4-3): 674
27. South Carolina (5-2): 667
28. Nebraska (5-1): 665
29. Mississippi (4-3): 662
30. Georgia Tech (4-3): 652
31. Utah (4-3): 650
32. Fresno State (6-0): 628
33. Pittsburgh (4-2): 615
34. Michigan State (6-1): 614
35. Northern Illinois (7-0): 606
36. Oklahoma State (5-1): 600
37. East Carolina (5-2): 600
38. Mississippi State (3-3): 596
39. Oregon State (6-1): 592
40. Arizona (4-2): 590
41. Houston (5-1): 585
42. Penn State (4-2): 576
43. Tennessee (4-3): 570
44. USC (4-3): 566
45. Texas (4-2): 556
46. Iowa (4-3): 553
47. Marshall (4-2): 546
48. Maryland (5-2): 542
49. Boise State (5-2): 537
50. Duke (5-2): 526
51. Indiana (3-4): 524
52. North Texas (4-3): 503
53. Vanderbilt (4-3): 497
54. Ball State (7-1): 495
55. Ohio (5-2): 493
56. TCU (3-4): 492
57. Minnesota (5-2): 491
58. Utah State (4-4): 482
59. Colorado (3-3): 482
60. Rice (5-2): 478
61. Rutgers (4-2): 476
62. Boston College (3-3): 469
63. Louisiana-Lafayette (4-2): 461
64. Washington State (4-4): 457
65. Bowling Green (5-2): 451
66. Toledo (4-3): 451
67. Wake Forest (4-3): 444
68. West Virginia (3-4): 429
69. Northwestern (4-3): 422
70. Virginia (2-5): 417
71. Arkansas State (3-3): 412
72. Western Kentucky (4-3): 408
73. Syracuse (3-4): 393
74. Buffalo (5-2): 388
75. North Carolina State (3-3): 388
76. Navy (3-3): 383
77. North Carolina (1-5): 383
78. Tulane (5-2): 371
79. South Alabama (3-3): 370
80. Florida Atlantic (2-5): 368
81. Arkansas (3-5): 346
82. Cincinnati (5-2): 338
83. Illinois (3-3): 335
84. UNLV (4-3): 332
85. San Jose State (3-3): 320
86. Wyoming (4-3): 319
87. Texas State (4-3): 317
88. Louisiana-Monroe (3-4): 316
89. Kansas State (2-4): 313
90. Old Dominion (4-3): 309
91. Memphis (1-5): 303
92. Nevada (3-4): 302
93. Colorado State (3-4): 298
94. SMU (2-4): 297
95. Army (3-5): 280
96. Kentucky (1-5): 277
97. Kansas (2-4): 270
98. Troy (4-3): 266
99. UTSA (2-5): 260
100. Tulsa (2-4): 258
101. Akron (2-6): 240
102. California (1-6): 235
103. Central Michigan (3-5): 226
104. San Diego State (3-3): 221
105. Middle Tennessee (3-4): 214
106. Iowa State (1-5): 213
107. Purdue (1-6): 199
108. Kent State (2-6): 197
109. UAB (2-4): 187
110. South Florida (2-4): 165
111. New Mexico (2-5): 127
112. Hawai'i (0-6): 125
113. Idaho (1-6): 102
114. Temple (1-6): 91
115. Louisiana Tech (2-5): 81
116. Eastern Michigan (1-6): 72
117. Southern Miss (0-6): 54
118. Air Force (1-6): 46
119. Connecticut (0-6): 44
120. UTEP (1-5): -16
121. Florida International (1-5): -21
122. Western Michigan (0-8): -50
123. Massachusetts (1-6): -57
124. New Mexico State (0-7): -109
125. Georgia State (0-7): -140
126. Miami (OH) (0-7): -154
A few notes:
- #5 Baylor is obviously ranked a bit higher than they would be in a non-statistical system (they have the top statistical profile, even adjusting their ridiculous 64.7 ppg for their ease-of-schedule). Here, I simply say: don't worry. After cupcake #97 Kansas, they play three ranked teams consecutively (#12 Oklahoma, #22 Texas Tech, #36 Oklahoma State). As their strength of schedule gets marginally better (it's currently 14th-easiest), their statistical profile should get significantly worse.
- #8 Arizona State seems aberrational. The Sun Devils don't show up on the BCS Rankings, and they're 26th in the AP Poll (#1 among Others Receiving Votes). ASU, though, is one of only three teams with top-10 RPI and Statistical Profiles (10th in both; #1 FSU and #4 Missouri are the other such team). They just smacked around a good #24 Washington team, and their two losses are to #7 Stanford by 14 (same margin as in the Cardinal's victory over #9 UCLA) and #25 Notre Dame by 3. Unfortunately, #2 Oregon is not on their regular season schedule, but I would not be at all surprised if Arizona State runs the table, defeating #39 Oregon State and UCLA to earn a date with the Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
- #22 Texas Tech does this every year, don't they? They start off 7-0, earning high BCS and Poll Rankings, and then they get smacked by Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and #45 Texas. Well, the Ruby Rankings aren't buying it. Not yet.
- #82 Cincinnati: How can a 5-2 team from a BCS Conference be ranked so low? The four FBS teams they've defeated - #107 Purdue, #126 Miami (OH), #114 Temple, and #119 Connecticut - have a combined record of 2-25. The two teams they've lost to are #83 Illinois and #110 South Florida. Ranking them #82 might actually be generous.
TOP/BOTTOM 10
Statistical Profiles
1. #5 Baylor
2. #2 Oregon
3. #1 Florida State
4. #15 Louisville
5. #21 Wisconsin
6. #3 Alabama
7. #6 Ohio State
8. #4 Missouri
9. #13 Miami (FL)
10. #8 Arizona State
...
117. #102 California
118. #107 Purdue
119. #116 Eastern Michigan
120. #123 Massachusetts
121. #126 Miami (OH)
122. #113 Idaho
123. #122 Western Michigan
124. #121 Florida Internation
125. #117 Southern Miss
126. #124 New Mexico State
RPI Profiles
1. #1 Florida State
2. #7 Stanford
3. #4 Missouri
4. #17 Georgia
5. #3 Alabama
6. #11 Virginia Tech
7. #14 Auburn
8. #25 Notre Dame
9. #10 Clemson
10. #8 Arizona State
...
117. #111 New Mexico
118. #115 Louisiana Tech
119. #124 New Mexico State
120. #122 Western Michigan
121. #118 Air Force
122. #119 Connecticut
123. #123 Massachusetts
124. #126 Miami (OH)
125. #120 UTEP
126. #125 Georgia State
Adjusted Strength-of-Schedule
1. #17 Georgia
2. #77 North Carolina
3. #107 Purdue
4. #102 California
5. #70 Virginia
6. #51 Indiana
7. #59 Colorado
8. #29 Mississippi
9. #117 Southern Miss
10. #68 West Virginia
...
117. #36 Oklahoma State
118. #22 Texas Tech
119. #74 Buffalo
120. #39 Oregon State
121. #34 Michigan State
122. #65 Bowling Green
123. #54 Ball State
124. #120 UTEP
125. #35 Northern Illinois
126. #82 Cincinnati
Best/Worst Teams by Record
Best undefeated team: #1 Florida State
Worst undefeated team: #35 Northern Illinois
Best one-loss team: #7 Stanford
Worst one-loss team: #54 Ball State
Best two-loss team: #8 Arizona State
Worst two-loss team: #82 Cincinnati
Best three-loss team: #17 Georgia
Worst three-loss team: #104 San Diego State
Best four-loss team: #51 Indiana
Worst four-loss team: #110 South Florida
Thanks for reading all or, very likely, part of that. Will likely update after Week 9; will definitely update after Week 10. - JCR
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