NCAAF Week 10 PREVIEW!!!

The rankings used in this post are the Ruby Rankings, which can be found HERE!

The FBS games this week can be readily broken down into two major categories:

#1 Florida State vs. #12 Miami
-and-
Every Other Game.

Clearly, the match-up in Tallahassee is the highlight of the weekend, with both teams coming in undefeated and ranked in the top 7 of the BCS. We'll all be waiting for the 8 PM kick-off anxiously, to see if Jimbo Fisher's squad can demolish another ACC foe.

Here's how the WEEKLY NCAAF PREVIEW is going to work: I'll give you the games that are:
- The 5 Closest Matches,
- The 5 Biggest Mismatches,
- The 3 Most Watchable (combination of closeness and talent; two similar 7-1 teams playing will be more exciting than two identical 3-5 teams plaing), and
- The Single Most Excruciating.

Armed with such knowledge, it is up which games to enjoy and avoid!

The Closest Matches:

1. #76 San Jose State (4-3) vs. #79 UNLV (5-3). Both of these teams are 3-1 in-conference, but are greatly overshadowed by Fresno State. UNLV has already lost to the Bulldogs, meaning that their MWC title hopes are all-but dashed, but if San Jose State can win this one, there's a good chance the SJSU-Fresno State match-up on November 29th will be a de facto MWC semifinal. 

2. #86 Memphis (1-5) vs. #88 Cincinnati (5-2). This is a strange match-up; the Ruby Rankings actually have Memphis as the favorite, despite their sole win. This is largely because Memphis's adjusted strength-of-schedule is 10th hardest out of 126, while Cincinnati's sits in dead last. Those two losses are against teams worse than Memphis. This is a Wednesday night game, which means that I might be the only one paying attention.

3. #47 North Texas (5-3) vs. #51 Rice (6-2). Does anyone remember that Rice hung with #14 Texas A&M in week 1, losing by a respectable 52-31? Nah. Johnny Football didn't play the first half of that one. Since then, though, the Owls have gone 6-1 and cruised to a 4-0 C-USA record. North Texas similarly stuck with #19 Georgia earlier this year before the Bulldogs pulled away to a 24-point win. These two teams have very different styles - Rice is run, run, run, and UNT has a balanced, pass-first attack - but are very similar in quality.

4. #85 Louisiana-Monroe (4-4) vs. #91 Troy (5-3). These are the only two teams that could keep #49 Louisiana-Lafayette from winning the Sun Belt Conference title. The loser of this game will likely be eliminated from such contention.

5. #31 Texas Tech (7-1) vs. #35 Oklahoma State (6-1). Let's face it: everybody paying attention should have expected #9 Oklahoma to take care of Texas Tech last week. They did. That being said, both of these squads are still in Big 12 title contention; neither has played #5 Baylor or #34 Texas, the only two teams without Big 12 losses. Like many of the games above, these teams are in similar enough spots that this match-up will function to eliminate one from championship contention.

The Biggest Mismatches:

1. #14 Texas A&M (6-2) vs. #120 UTEP (1-6). Congratulations to the Miners for trying to improve their strength-of-schedule, or make some quick money, or something. This should be ugly; UTEP is coming off a 38-point loss to Rice, and Texas A&M is going to find the bottom of the C-USA barrel even less resistant than #62 Vanderbilt and #83 Arkansas (who the Aggies beat by a combined 34 points).

2. #4 Ohio State (8-0) vs. #107 Purdue (1-6). After their dismantling of #52 Penn State last week, the Buckeyes should find things even easier against the Boilermakers. Only four teams have managed to put up fewer points per game than Purdue this year, and only four teams have managed to put up more points per game than Ohio State this year. Boom.

3. #38 Northern Illinois (8-0) vs. #124 Massachusetts (1-7). NIU doesn't have to worry about whether they're BCS-worthy this week. They face a Minutemen squad that scores the fewest points per game in the nation (10.9), and is in the bottom-20 in both passing and rushing. Huskies QB Jordan Lynch already has 1,711 yards passing and 1,031 rushing, accounting for 26 TDs. Expect that number to be on the other side of 30 (or 32?) by this time next week.

4. #36 East Carolina (5-2) vs. #123 Florida International (1-6). ECU's in the C-USA East driver's seat, whereas FIU is in the toilet. The Golden Panthers have been a bit better of late (their win came 3 weeks ago over equally inept #120 Southern Miss, 24-23), but the only team that's been able to keep the Pirates from putting up a ton of points was #17 Virginia Tech. Does not bode well for FIU.

5. #49 Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2) vs. #122 New Mexico State (1-7). I wrote before about my love of La-La QB Terrance Broadway's name. The Ragin' Cajuns (also a name I like) are on a 5-game winning streak. Of the five teams Louisiana-Lafayette has defeated, the Independent New Mexico State squad is likely most similar to Nicholls State, the FCS school the Cajuns smacked 70-7. They'll need to be careful not to overlook a non-conference foe in the middle of a title hunt, but I get the feeling that they can overlook NMSU and still be all right.

The Most Watchable:

1. #1 Florida State (7-0) vs. #12 Miami (7-0). Don't get me wrong: I don't expect this to be a nail-biter. FSU should win fairly comfortably; the Hurricanes recent performances (defeating #61 UNC by 4 and #66 Wake Forest by 3) don't exactly inspire confidence. They can be forgiven for looking ahead to this match-up, but I don't think there's a defense out there that can stop Jameis Winston. He looks like the real deal.

2. #16 Michigan (6-1) vs. #25 Michigan State (7-1). These teams are ranked 21 and 22 in the BCS, respectively, so this is definitely a rivalry game that could come down to the wire. There's no secret to this one: Michigan has a high-powered offense and Michigan State has a shut-down defense. UMich should like their chances if they can score more than 21; Michigan State hasn't scored more than 26 against any defense that can be described as "solid."

3. #31 Texas Tech vs #35 Oklahoma State. See above for a description of how close these teams are; both of these teams have a reputation as shoot-out offenses, and this one could get up into the high 40s.

The Single Most Excruciatingly Unbearable Game of the Week:

#36 East Carolina (5-2) vs. #123 Florida International (1-6). In part because the teams are so mismatched, but largely because of Florida International's terrible, terrible statline. They are dead last in the nation in total offense, gaining 219.1 yards per game. There are 77 teams that pass for more than that each contest, and 20 teams that rush for more than that. This is simply a team that can't move the ball. This is true even when the Golden Panthers play bad teams; last week against #112 Louisiana Tech, FIU managed a paltry 197 yards (the fewest La Tech had given up in their seven prior games was 362), average less than 5 yards per pass attempt. Watching this game might make your eyes bleed, or drive you into a deep, contemplative melancholy.