2014 Ruby Rankings: NCAAF FBS Rankings (Week 9)

Here's the Ruby Rankings after NCAAF Week 9! This is the second edition of the Rankings.

This year's first rankings, with a description of methodology, can be found HERE!

The basics are as follows:

1) The 126 FBS teams are roughly scaled from 0 (a bottom-five, roughly winless team) to 1000 (a BCS Championship Favorite).

2) The ranking takes into account wins/losses, strength of schedule, and statistics.

3) The rankings are updated weekly.

WEEK 9 RUBY RANKINGS:

Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score (RANK Change from Last Week)

1. Florida State (7-0): 979 (=)
2. Oregon (8-0): 949 (=)
3. Alabama (8-0): 911 (=)
4. Ohio State (8-0): 880 (+2)
5. Baylor (7-0): 854 (=)
6. Missouri (7-1): 830 (-2)
7. Stanford (7-1): 821 (=)
8. Arizona State (5-2): 812 (=)
9. Oklahoma (7-1): 807 (+3)
10. Clemson (7-1): 785 (=)
11. Auburn (7-1): 781 (+3)
12. Miami (FL) (7-0): 778 (+1)
13. BYU (6-2): 762 (+6)
14. Texas A&M (6-2): 743 (+6)
15. Louisville (7-1): 730 (=)
16. Michigan (6-1): 728 (+2)
17. Virginia Tech (6-2): 724 (-6)
18. UCLA (5-2): 707 (-9)
19. Georgia (4-3): 703 (-2)
20. LSU (7-2): 697 (-4)
21. South Carolina (6-2): 694 (+6)
22. Houston (6-1): 687 (+19)
23. Wisconsin (5-2): 684 (-2)
24. Mississippi (5-3): 677 (+5)
25. Michigan State (7-1): 670 (+9)
26. Washington (5-3): 669 (-2)
27. Notre Dame (6-2): 668 (-2)
28. Florida (4-3): 665 (-2)
29. Arizona (5-2): 660 (+11)
30. Mississippi State (4-3): 659 (+8)
31. Texas Tech (7-1): 658 (-9)
32. Georgia Tech (5-3): 657 (-2)
33. UCF (6-1): 656 (-10)
34. Texas (5-2): 638 (+11)
35. Oklahoma State (6-1): 625 (+1)
36. East Carolina (5-2): 622 (+1)
37. USC (5-3): 617 (+7)
38. Northern Illinois (8-0): 609 (-3)
39. Minnesota (6-2): 592 (+18)
40. Fresno State (7-0): 580 (-8)
41. Iowa (5-3): 580 (+5)
42. Duke (6-2): 580 (+8)
43. Utah (4-4): 579 (-12)
44. Nebraska (5-2): 577 (-16)
45. Oregon State (6-2): 568 (-6)
46. Pittsburgh (4-3): 548 (-13)
47. North Texas (5-3): 541 (+5)
48. Tennessee (4-4): 538 (-5)
49. Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2): 527 (+14)
50. Ball State (8-1): 520 (+4)
51. Rice (6-2): 518 (+9)
52. Penn State (4-3): 516 (-10)
53. Indiana (3-4): 514 (-2)
54. Toledo (5-3): 506 (+12)
55. Maryland (5-3): 493 (-7)
56. Boise State (5-3): 489 (-7)
57. Utah State (4-4): 488 (+1)
58. Ohio (6-2): 471 (-3)
59. Marshall (4-3): 466 (-12)
60. Navy (4-3): 461 (+16)
61. North Carolina (2-5): 461 (+16)
62. Vanderbilt (4-4): 452 (-9)
63. Washington State (4-4): 452 (+1)
64. TCU (3-5): 451 (-8)
65. Northwestern (4-4): 439 (+4)
66. Wake Forest (4-4): 436 (+1)
67. Buffalo (6-2): 430 (+7)
68. Rutgers (4-3): 422 (-7)
69. Colorado (3-4): 422 (-10)
70. Tulane (6-2): 418 (+8)
71. Bowling Green (5-3): 417 (-6)
72. Virginia (2-6): 400 (-2)
73. Syracuse (3-4): 397 (=)
74. North Carolina State (3-4): 395 (+1)
75. Kansas State (3-4): 395 (+14)
76. San Jose State (4-3): 386 (+9)
77. Western Kentucky (4-4): 384 (-5)
78. Boston College (3-4): 383 (-16)
79. UNLV (5-3): 382 (+5)
80. Arkansas State (3-4): 365 (-9)
81. West Virginia (3-5): 358 (-13)
82. Texas State (5-3): 355 (+5)
83. Arkansas (3-5): 351 (-2)
84. Florida Atlantic (2-6): 347 (-4)
85. Louisiana-Monroe (4-4): 339 (+3)
86. Memphis (1-5): 335 (+5)
87. South Alabama (3-4): 332 (-8)
88. Cincinnati (5-2): 329 (-6)
89. UTSA (3-5): 320 (+10)
90. Middle Tennessee (4-4): 318 (+15)
91. Troy (5-3): 313 (+7)
92. Colorado State (4-4): 300 (+1)
93. Wyoming (4-4): 293 (-7)
94. Illinois (3-4): 289 (-11)
95. SMU (3-4): 288 (-1)
96. San Diego State (3-4): 281 (+8)
97. Old Dominion (5-3): 276 (-7)
98. Army (3-5): 275 (-3)
99. Kansas (2-5): 267 (-2)
100. Nevada (3-5): 263 (-8)
101. Kentucky (1-6): 263 (-5)
102. Tulsa (2-5): 261 (-2)
103. Akron (2-7): 244 (-2)
104. Central Michigan (3-5): 239 (-1)
105. Iowa State (1-6): 211 (+1)
106. California (1-7): 202 (-4)
107. Purdue (1-6): 185 (=)
108. Kent State (2-7): 172 (=)
109. South Florida (2-5): 164 (+1)
110. New Mexico (2-5): 140 (+1)
111. Louisiana Tech (3-5): 134 (+4)
112. UAB (2-5): 132 (-3)
113. Hawai'i (0-7): 106 (-1)
114. Temple (1-7): 89 (=)
115. Eastern Michigan (1-7): 83 (+1)
116. Idaho (1-7): 70 (-3)
117. Air Force (1-7): 60 (+1)
118. Connecticut (0-7): 46 (+1)
119. UTEP (1-6): 28 (+1)
120. Southern Miss (0-7): 17 (-3)
121. Western Michigan (1-8): 6 (+1)
122. New Mexico State (1-7): -66 (+2)
123. Florida International (1-6): -70 (-2)
124. Massachusetts (1-7): -85 (-1)
125. Georgia State (0-8): -132 (=)
126. Miami (OH) (0-8): -153 (=)

Big Movers and Other Notes
  
#18 UCLA falls 9 spots after its 28-point loss to #2 Oregon. This might be a little harsh, because I don't think anyone expected UCLA to stick with the Ducks as long as they did (it was 14-14 at halftime), and they actually held Oregon to their lowest point total of the year (42, which is ridiculous). But for the second straight week, UCLA was pretty soundly dominated in the end. Oregon held the Bruins, who came into the game averaging 302 yards through the air, to a paltry 64 passing yards on 19 attempts (13 completions). UCLA is likely better than #18, but they'll need to string a few wins together to prove it to the computer.

#22 Houston jumps a whopping 19 spots after smacking #68 Rutgers 49-14 in Piscataway. Houston was aided by a 6-0 turnover margin, and and flexed their muscles with 400 passing yards against a team whose only prior losses were by 1 point, in OT, against undefeated #40 Fresno State and by a closer-than-the-score-indicated 14 against #15 Louisville. For their part, Houston's only loss was 47-46 to #13 BYU last week in the Battle of the Cougars; they came out angry and showed that they, and not Louisville, are in the AAC Driver's Seat. Houston faces UCF and Louisville back-to-back next month.

#33 UCF falls 10 spots... after a 45-point win? That can't be right. Unfortunately, though, that's one of the issues with an RPI-based system: when you play a godawful team, you can't beat them bad enough to make up for the blow they deal to your strength-of-schedule. #118 Connecticut is the worst BCS-Conference team this year, and they've been downright horrendous. UCF should jump back up (notice that the difference between #25 Michigan State and UCF is 14 points, which is incredibly tiny) to the top 20 if they can beat Houston in two weeks.

#39 Minnesota climbs 18 spots and #44 Nebraska falls 16 after the former beat the latter 34-23. This was an eye-opening result for me, because through their first seven games the Golden Gophers had soundly defeated the five bad teams they'd played and been soundly defeated by the two good teams they'd played. If you've been paying attention, you know that Minnesota finds themselves without their Head Coach, Jerry Kill, who is on an indefinite leave of absence to treat his epilepsy.

#49 Louisiana-Lafayette climbs 14 spots into the top 50. With a QB named Terrance Broadway, they have to be ready for the spotlight. Despite opening the season with back-to-back losses against BCS teams that, quite possible, the Ragin' Cajuns should have defeated (#83 Arkansas and #75 Kansas State), La-La should have an easy time ripping through the Sun Belt; the toughest of the five teams remaining on their schedule is #82 Texas State.

TOP/BOTTOM 10

Statistical Profiles:

1. #5 Baylor
2. #2 Oregon
3. #1 Florida State
4. #15 Louisville
5. #4 Ohio State
6. #23 Wisconsin
7. #3 Alabama
8. #25 Michigan State
9. #22 Houston
10. #12 Miami (FL)
...
117. #124 Massachusetts
118. #107 Purdue
119. #125 Georgia State
120. #121 Western Michigan
121. #115 Eastern Michigan
122. #126 Miami (OH)
123. #123 Florida International
124. #116 Idaho
125. #120 Southern Miss
126. #122 New Mexico State

RPI Profiles:

1. #7 Stanford
2. #3 Alabama
3. #1 Florida State
4. #9 Oklahoma
5. #6 Missouri
6. #19 Georgia
7. #11 Auburn
8. #2 Oregon
9. #4 Ohio State
10. #10 Clemson
...
117. #121 Western Michigan
118. #111 Louisiana Tech
119. #110 New Mexico
120. #117 Air Force
121. #122 New Mexico State
122. #123 Florida International
123. #119 UTEP
124. #124 Massachusetts
125. #126 Miami (OH)
126. #125 Georgia State

Adjusted Strength-of-Schedule

1. #19 Georgia
2. #107 Purdue
3. #61 North Carolina
4. #72 Virginia
5. #69 Colorado
6. #53 Indiana
7. #103 Akron
8. #106 California
9. #30 Mississippi State
10. #86 Memphis
...
117. #111 Louisiana Tech
118. #25 Michigan State
119. #40 Fresno State
120. #35 Oklahoma State
121. #67 Buffalo
122. #71 Bowling Green
123. #97 Old Dominion
124. #50 Ball State
125. #38 Northern Illinois
126. #88 Cincinnati

A few thoughts on games I watched:

- Part of what's good about computer rankings is that they don't take subjective evaluation into account; part of what's bad about computer rankings is that they don't take subjective evaluation into account. The BCS Computers currently have Fresno State ranked 15th. After watching them try to out-lackluster San Diego State in the wee hours of Sunday morning, that seems patently ridiculous.

- Note that my rankings have Northern Illinois #38. Both Polls have them 20th. The Computer Average has them 13th. This is where the rubber of my argument against ignoring things like margins of victory hits the road, so to speak. I am an enormous fan of Jeff Sagarin's rankings, which he does for USA Today. His football rankings are one of the 6 used in the BCS computation. Sagarin actually provides a Pure ELO Ranking, which doesn't take margin of victory into account, and, as he says, is good at "retro-fitting the W-L results," and a Predictive Ranking.

His Predictive Ranking has Northern Illinois 51st (out of 251 FBS and FCS teams). The Pure ELO - which is what the BCS uses - has Northern Illinois 3rd. That the BCS includes a computer system that ranks Northern Illinois third in the nation (their best win this year is a 30-27 Opening Week victory over Iowa) shows why the BCS had to be terminated with extreme prejudice.

- The discerning reader will notice that, although Florida State's rank remained the same, their score dropped precipitously, from 1042 to 979. This is simply a result of regression to the mean: there is no team in the country with a "true talent level" of "beating Clemson by 37"; in order to keep from coming back down to earth, FSU would've had to beat NC State by upwards of 80. They sure as hell could have, but kudos to Jimbo Fisher for taking the pedal off the gas at halftime. 

- The Ohio State win over Penn State really showed that the Buckeyes are not pretenders to the crown. Not that Penn State is a fantastic team, but OSU's dismantling of the Nittany Lions showed that this team is as good now as they've been with Urban Meyer at the helm. I would not be even a little bit surprised if Florida State, Oregon, Alabama, and Ohio State all finish the season undefeated. Not even a little bit.