Everyone! It's NFL Playoff time! This is, obviously, a good thing, a seasonal consolation for those of us who return to school around this time every year. It's an excuse to stay inside out of the cold. It's an excuse to drink, whether in joy or agony. Most of all, it's about 40 hours of fun spread out over 4 weekends.
Before I take a look at this year's playoff games, let's take a quick look at the teams I picked to get into the playoffs. In the AFC, I snagged 3 of the 4 division winners (Patriots, Broncos, and Colts, all of who were never really in danger), and admitted that I really was not confident in my Ravens pick. I did have the Bengals as my first wild card, noting that their offense was the probably the third-best in the AFC, behind the Broncos and Pats. Well, what do you know: the top 3 AFC scoring offenses were the Broncos, Pats, and Bengal; the Chargers sneaked ahead of the Bengals into 3rd place in total yards. I really liked Cleveland coming into this year, and took a flyer on them as the last wild-card team. That... didn't work, but, whatever. Gordon was fun to watch.
Predicted: 1) Broncos; 2) Ravens; 3) Patriots; 4) Colts; 5) Bengals; 6) Browns
Actual: 1) Broncos; 2) Patriots; 3) Bengals; 4) Colts; 5) Chiefs; 6) Chargers.
I picked the Broncos to get to the Super Bowl. Really went out on a limb there.
Like in the AFC, I managed to pick 4 of the 6 NFC teams, although it was a little more jumbled here. In the East, noting that no one had any bloody idea what would happen, I picked the Cowboys to win. Of the Philadelphia Eagles, I wrote: "[they] will be one of three things: 1) the most exciting playoff team in the
NFL, 2) the most exciting mediocre team in the NFL, or 3) the most
exciting trainwreck in the NFL." I am thrilled that they are pretty darn close to #1. I expected #2.5. In the North, I had the Packers, but with 12 wins, not 8 and a half. I had the Saints in the playoffs as the 6-seed (bingo!) but was (like virtually everyone) mistaken about which team would go 12-4 to take the South. In the West, I got the two squads, but had them switched.
Predicted: 1) 49ers; 2) Packers; 3) Falcons; 4) Cowboys; 5) Seahawks; 6) Saints
Actual: 1) Seahawks; 2) Panthers; 3) Eagles; 4) Packers; 5) 49ers; 6) Saints
Here, I picked the Packers. Ultimately, I had a rematch of Super Bowl XXXII - the first one I watched! - going the other way, with Rodgers getting his second ring.
So, that was the plan. I'm gonna give those picks a B. I got all the ones that were more likely than not, and both of my Super Bowl teams made it. We now, however, have an entire season's worth of games and statistics and storylines to take into account, so perhaps we can be even more successful going forward!
Fat chance. I'd call three of this weekend's four games a coin-flip, but I think it's more like four. Here's my Informed Analysis(c)(notreally) of this weekend's games:
(5) Kansas City @ (4) Indianapolis - 4:35 Saturday
Kansas City surprised a lot of people with their 9-0 start, but came way back down to earth with a 2-5 finish. Those five losses came to the Broncos, Broncos, Chargers, Chargers... and Colts, albeit in a game that didn't have much meaning for either team. The Colts played in the easiest division in the NFL this year; the Jaguars never had much of a chance, and while I wasn't shocked the Texans missed the playoffs - I had them stumbling to a flat 8-8 - I don't think anyone envisioned them deciding whether to keep or trade the #1 overall pick. Even the Titans, at 7-9, had the worst record of any division runner-up.
Chiefs Offense
... starts and ends with Jamaal Charles, is how that sentence goes. Charles was 3rd in the NFL in rushing this year, the only player in the pass-heavy AFC to be in the top 6. He was tied for the most rushing TDs with 12, which is likely the lowest total ever in a 16-game season (I only checked back to 2003). The NFL these days is very different from the game that Priest Holmes (27 in 2003), Shaun Alexander (27 in 2005), and LaDainian Tomlinson (28 in 2006) played only a few years ago. Even in a run-depressed NFL, it's clear that Charles has to be on any intelligible shortlist of offensive MVP candidates. That's in large part due to his amazing consistency catching the ball out of the backfield too; despite being the single-game receiving yards leader for the Chiefs only twice this year, he led the team in receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns.
In other news, another season goes by and we *still* have no idea if Alex Smith is any good. What he can do: win when he has weapons. Get a good number of TDs without throwing picks, which is a damn-valuable skill (just ask Jay Cutler or Eli Manning). Run, apparently - he snagged 431 rushing yards this year (his previous high was 179). Also, he hasn't lost a fumble since 2006. That's 70+ games.
What he can't do, though, it seems, is go downfield, make a particularly athletic play, or really do any of the things that separate good, plus QBs from the ones we remember, the ones that win playoff games, the ones that win even though the opposing defense is better than their own offense. I am an unashamed QBR fan, and Smith comes in at a 49.4 this year. That's the very definition of mediocre.
Ultimately, even with Charles, if I was drafting playoff team offenses, these guys would be in the bottom three.
Colts Offense
And so would these guys, I think. When Andrew Luck came into the league a mere 20 months ago, I told people that he would, physically, in terms of arm strength, make throws that only 5 or 6 other starters could make. I had him, when he first stepped on an NFL field, as the 12th-best QB in the league. It did take him a little while to really hit his stride, but he's a quick learner, and those forlorn franchises that have had x+1 QBs over the last x years (Bills, Browns... looking at you) must be furious that the Colts went from one sure-fire franchise QB to the next.
The Colts are actually 20th in rushing, although their leading rusher - Donald Brown - only snagged 537, good for 42nd individually in the NFL. Trent Richardson... who the hell knows? I have no idea why he can't move the ball in the NFL, but after he was traded to the Colts, his yard per carry actually went down. He snagged only 2.9 per with Indy.
T.Y. "Don't Call Me Ty" Hilton was Luck's favorite target this year, going over 1,000 yards and legitimately stepping up when Reggie Wayne was lost for the season. Coby Fleener, Luck's Stanford buddy, has done all right as well.
Although the pieces are good-not-great, you can do a lot with a little when you don't turn the ball over. The Colts only turned the ball over 14 times this year, four better than the second-most efficient team which, as you should have guessed by now, is the Chiefs.
Colts Defense
Defensively, the Colts seem to match up poorly with KC. Robert Mathis was the Colts' only Pro Bowl selection on either side of the ball, and he certainly earned it; as far as OLBs go, however, he's quite pass-oriented. He snagged 19.5 sack this year (the next-highest LB had 12), but much of the run-stopping was done by the solid team of Antoine Bethea and LaRon Landry, both safeties. Ultimately, the Colts ended up 7th-worst against the run. This might be because no one in their division could throw, but this front seven isn't the sort that will strike fear into Jamaal Charles's heart.
The Colts are 5th in the AFC in takeaways, and - much like last year - this is a squad that is better than its names suggest. That's a credit to the coach. Ultimately, though, I'm not too high on this unit. I probably should be into these guys more, especially since they were 9th in points allowed, and I'm about to talk about how the Chiefs are great because they're 5th in points allowed, but remember: the Colts played in the barren South, and the Chiefs played in the explosive West.
Chiefs Defense
Here's where the star power in this game is. The Chiefs' defense has 5 Pro Bowlers, and is one of the best in the game. The unit is a testament to the worthlessness of Total Yardage statistics; KC is 24th in total yards allowed but 5th in points allowed.
A big part of that is the Chiefs' ability to get turnovers. Their 36 takeaways trailed only the near-legendary Seahawks' defense this year. Justin Houston and (Penn Stater) Tamba Hali, both Pro Bowlers, each had 11 sacks, and Hali was one of only 4 players to return both an INT and fumble for a TD this year (not that there's any predictive value to that info, but, hey, it's neat).
PREDICTION:
I know KC stumbled to the finish line, but in the NFL, the more talented team wins more often than not. The team with more talent is the Chiefs, and they're going to storm into Indy this afternoon and snag a tough victory. KANSAS CITY 31, INDIANAPOLIS 21
(6) New Orleans @ (3) Philadelphia - 8:10 Saturday
These teams combined for 11 wins last year, the fewest of any possible playoff duo this year unless the Chiefs and Eagles make it to the Super Bowl (that'd be 6 combined wins). Most people who were paying attention expected the Saints to get back after the Bounty-gate hiccup, and most people who were paying attention still had no idea whether Chip Kelly would work, whether the defense could actually tackle, or whether Nick Foles was going to set the all-time TDs to INTs ratio for someone with at least 13 TDs.
An interesting note: Nick Foles and Drew Brees graduated from the same high school, Westlake HS in Austin, Texas. It's also worth noting that Brees is one of the shortest QBs in the league - listed at 6'0" but widely believed to be 5'11" - and Foles comes in at 6'6". I wonder if anyone's compiled a list of the biggest height differences in playoff games. If not, they should. If so, they should send it to me.
Saints Offense
Obviously top notch, with the caveat that everyone believes them to be far worse on the road than at home. Let's see if that's true:
- 8-0 at home, 3-5 on the road. Oohf.
- 34 ppg for at home, 17.5 ppg for on the road. Ouch.
- 15.6 ppg allowed at home, 22.4 ppg allowed on the road. Meh.
Of course, almost all teams will have some significant shift home-to-away, but that seems pretty extreme. When everyone believes something to be true and stats suggest it's true, it's a lot easier to think "hey... it's probably true."
But let's get to the actual offense. Just for kicks, whenever I cite a player stat, I'll put home and road splits too. Drew Brees is obviously a fantastic passer. I still remember thinking he was done when the Chargers let him go, and the Dolphins didn't want to take a flyer on him. Yeah. In his 8 seasons with the Saints, he's only missed one game. He put up his 4th-highest passer rating this year, notching a 104.7 (126.3 home, 84.8 road). He was also second in the NFL in TDs, with his 39 scores (27 home, 12 away) equal to approximately 70% of Peyton Manning's total.
A big part of that success is Jimmy Graham, who, with apologies to the injury-riddled Rob Gronkowski, is almost certainly the biggest single match-up problem in the NFL. Graham led the league in receiving TDs (including WRs) with 16 (10 home, 6 road). Note that, if the Saints are to have offensive success in the Linc, it will be led by Graham, who has actually has more receptions and yards on the road despite missing the shockingly-unlikely defeat to the Patriots at Gillette.
No one would mistake the Saints' offense for a rushing attack; their 92.1 per game slot them at 25th in the NFL and worst among the playoff teams. They have a real RB-by-committee thing going; they have 6 players with a rushing TD and none with more than 3. The real RB threats are Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas coming out of the backfield to receive. Pierre Thomas is a true screen back: he has 513 total receiving yards but 642 yards after catch (tops in the league). That means his 77 receptions were made an average of 1.7 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Sproles is just as good, and probably more explosive, with 604 yards, 507 YAC.
One of the best offenses in the league, but at 25.9 per game they're not the true air-it-out circus we've seen in the past from this team.
Eagles Offense
Also among the best in the league. It's hard to look at season stats for this squad, because of the QB switch mid-season. Even with the Birds scoring 10 combined points in back-to-back division losses this year (with Matt Barkley at the helm for most of that time), they ended up with the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league (27.6), just fractions of points per game behind the Bears and Patriots (both 27.8). Oh, yeah, and 10.3 behind the Broncos. But... the Broncos.
A lot has been made of Nick Foles's tremendous season, and I won't beat it to death here. Suffice to say that, although he's been tremendous statistically (27:2 TDs:INTs, more importantly: 9.12 yards per attempt, which is ridiculous), a fair portion of it is the system he's in. He is not the Eagles' best offensive player.
That would be LeSean McCoy who, after leading the NFL in rushing TDs a few years ago, got his rushing yardage title this year, his 1,607 besting Matt Forte by 268. When this guy touches the ball, special things happen. His 5.1 yards per carry was 5th-best, and his 9 runs of 20+ yards was worse only than Alfred Morris's 10. McCoy may be the best in the NFL at making really stop-and-start cuts (at least when Peterson's banged up).
People complained about Foles being snubbed for the Pro Bowl, but I think DeSean Jackson was maybe the bigger snub. Maybe I'm biased, because I was sitting in Row 17 when he went for 193 in the Eagles' Week 2 loss to the Chargers, but he had arguably his best season, putting up a career-high 1,332 yards. Importantly, he was simply far more sure-handed this year than in years past: coming into this season, he had caught just over 52% of the passes thrown to him; this year, he improved that mark to 65%, which translated to almost 20 more catches. How much of that is system, and how much of that is better passing, and how much of that is Jackson... well, it's an interesting question, but no one will care as long as it keeps happening.
Basically, this is a match-up of two of the 6 or 7 best offenses in the league, and - especially with the Saints on the road, in the cold - the Eagles get the edge in this one.
Eagles Defense
Much maligned a year ago (though not like the Saints; more on this soon), the Eagles' defense managed to be at least mediocre this year, with a lot of individual performances standing out (at least to the fans, who were treated to a bland mixture of missed tackles and lethargy last year). It definitely appears as though the unit got better as the year wore on; over the first four games, they allowed 27, 33, 26, and 52 (to the Broncos, of course), whereas they only allowed more than 22 once in their last 12 games (a seemingly aberrational 48-30 loss at Minnesota in Week 15). The Eagles gave up a league-high 290 passing yards per game, but we've seen over and over that that stat doesn't matter much, because the team in that spot is often one with a quick, high-powered offense that a lot of teams have to play catch-up against. More telling is the Passer Rating of QBs facing the Eagles D: 84.0, good for 15th in the NFL. Also, the Eagles' 31 takeaways were 2nd-best in the NFC, helping them tie for 2nd-best in the NFC in turnover margin (+12).
When talking about the Eagles' defense, you simply can't overstate the importance of DeMeco Ryans as a stabilizing force. In his second year as an Eagle after coming up from Houston, Ryans has been a rock in the middle of the field, doing a little bit of everything. Trent Cole and Connor Barwin both came up huge, the latter especially in the Week 17 win over the Cowboys. And the rest of the defense - Mychal Kendricks, Nate Allen, Cedric Thornton, Brandon Boykin, Fletcher Cox - basically reads like a list of future Pro Bowlers.
The thing that Eagles fans need to keep in mind, even if Philly loses today, is this: the arrow is pointing up on these guys. This team will be better next year, and you can't say that with any confidence about most of the NFC.
Saints Defense
Rob Ryan quipped that he'd be unemployed for five minutes. Well, someone probably should have snatched him up in four. While the Cowboys watched their defense go from held-together-by-threads to completely in pieces, Ryan simply went to the Big Easy and turned an historically bad defense - granted, one with some talent (but with no motivation or direction) - into one of the best units in the game. The Saints were 4th-best in terms of both total yards and scoring defense. Against the Eagles' rushing attack, though, it's worth noting that the Saints were 2nd against the pass and 19th against the run.
A big part of their success against the pass was their pass rush, led by the breakout seasons of Cameron Jordan (12.5 sacks) and Junior Galette (12.0). Interestingly, the Saints' defensive success has not translated into takeaways, as their 19 is dead last in the NFC.
The Saints defense has been very good this year. Not flashy, not exciting, but good. Very Ryan-like.
PREDICTION:
The Eagles won't be able to keep up with NO if this turns into a pure QB battle. New Orleans's defense is too good, Jimmy Graham's too good, and Drew Brees is too good. But there are a lot of reasons why this shouldn't turn into a passing battle: it's in Philly, it's gonna be COLD, and the Eagles would be content with feeding LeSean McCoy the ball over and over. The Eagles aren't built to try to keep the other offense off the field, but they should be better at it than the Saints. If it was in New Orleans, I'd say Saints 35, Eagles 34. But it's in Philadelphia. PHILADELPHIA 28, NEW ORLEANS 20.
So, that's what we have for today's action. I'll hit you with another monster opus before tomorrow's games!
Seriously, comment. Tell me how much of an idiot I am, or why you agree with everything I've said, or something in between.
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