Hey everyone! Next week is the vaunted Week 15, the perennial last week of regular-season football for every team except Army and Navy. That means that all of the conferences with 12 or more teams - this year, the ACC, Big 10, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac 12, and SEC - will play their Conference Championship games in the coming days. Indeed, both the AAC and Big 12 titles are up for grabs, which means that, of the ten FBS conferences this weekend, nine have either official or unofficial Champion-determining games this weekend (that's what the * in the title of the post is for!). Only the Sun Belt is wrapped up, with the #58 Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns having locked up a trip to... the New Orleans Bowl... to play Tulane... which gives you an idea of what a Sun Belt Championship is worth these days. Ultimately, though, of the 14 games this weekend, 10 of them have title implications on the line. It's all up for grabs here, and THAT'S WHY YOU NEED TO KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON.
I'll take you through conference-by-conference, tell you who's got the inside track to the BCS, and let you know what SEC team each conference championship loser will be playing in their bowl game! (because... like... there are so many SEC teams that are good it seems like... every bowl game... has an SEC team... in it... #dontexplainthejoke)
All rankings used are the Ruby Rankings, available HERE, unless otherwise noted.
The AAC
Possible Champions (No Championship Game):
#20 UCF
#56 Cincinnati
#19 Louisville at #56 Cincinnati
Basically, this is a match-up to determine whether Cincinnati is technically in the hunt (I say technically because Cincinnati would have to pass UCF in the BCS rankings too, and the computers aren't going to buy that) for a BCS bid if UCF somehow messes up at home against #96 SMU (for the reasons this is more likely than you might think, read on). Both of these teams are 6-1 in the AAC, but the comparisons just about stop there.
Louisville was a Top Ten AP squad coming into the season, and their AAC loss was to UCF, a team that is virtually ranked even with them and gave possible BCS participant #11 South Carolina all it could handle in a 28-25 loss. Louisville hasn't really been tested (I have Louisville's adjusted strength-of-schedule as 6th-easiest in the country), but the talent is easy to see: Teddy Bridgewater, a possible Top 5 draft pick, leads an offense that can be inconsistent quarter-to-quarter but hasn't thrown up a dud all year (fewest points scored are 20), and the team has three legitimate running threats.
Cincinnati, on the other hand, has had a far easier schedule than Louisville (you read that right), having played what might be considered a good tough schedule for an FCS team (the only team in the Ruby Rankings with a worse strength-of-schedule is #99 Old Dominion, a transitional team that isn't actually an FBS team until next year by some accounts). Cincinnati's two losses are against #95 Illinois and #105 South Florida. Ouch. All that being said, this team actually really came together, and is a better team than their ranking indicates. After losing star QB Munchie Legaux in Week 2, I thought these guys were toast. But after the silly loss to USF, they've ran the AAC table - avoiding UCF, who wasn't on their schedule this year - and managed to find a way to still be alive at this point. And you can't fault them for that.
But the rankings can:
#19 Louisville 41, #56 Cincinnati 30
#20 UCF at #96 SMU
In this battle of three-letter squads, one might think that UCF should waltz to the finish line - and a BCS berth. One would be right. However, if you maintain that UCF will waltz to the finish line, well, you might want to take a second - just a second - to wonder.
As I mentioned earlier, UCF pushed South Carolina to 28-25. Coaches can have their crap about "never being a bad win or a good loss" on the field and in the locker room, but from a true predictive standpoint, that 3-point loss to a top-notch SEC squad is the most impressive game any AAC team has played this year. UCF jumped out to a 10-0 halftime lead against the Gamecocks, and then surrendered 28 straight points. To score twice more in the 4th quarter and almost beat such a good team showed great effort. All that is the good news. Now the bad news: South Carolina beat UCF by the same margin (3) that UCF beat #114 Temple and #105 South Florida by over the last 3 weeks, needing a miracle catch and last-second FG to edge the Owls in Philadelphia. That is to say, UCF has looked good against good teams and bad against bad teams.
For better or worse, then, SMU is a bad team. Sure, they're 5-6, and are playing for a bowl berth, which can fire-up any team. But their five wins have been over an FCS team and four teams that have fewer wins among them than UCF (Temple, USF, #111 Connecticut and #90 Memphis. Dear lord, the AAC is terrible). SMU is toward the bottom of the country in rushing yards per game, and allow 34.8 points per game. This team just got blown-out 34-0 against #38 Houston, and there's no reason they should be anywhere near UCF. But who knows what's going to happen when they get on the field?
Answer: the Ruby Rankings do.
#20 UCF 35, #96 SMU 10
The ACC
Championship Game: #1 FSU vs. #32 Duke
All along, I've been telling everyone that Florida State is the best team in the country (well, ever since they drubbed #17 Clemson 51-14). With #7 Alabama's loss in the Iron Bowl, however, the Polls and BCS finally agree with me. Clearly, they're the most deserving of the #1 ranking (which has less to do with being the best team than you might think), and at any rate, the biggest obstacle between them and being BCS Champions is probably Jameis Winston's legal situation. Assuming Winston stays on the field, it's hard to find a weakness in this bunch: they're 2nd in points scored (53.7, just behind #3 Baylor) and 1st in points allowed (11.0). I tried to find a stat they're bad at, but it's hard. Hell, their field goal unit is 18 for 19 this year. All right: they're middle of the road in penalties against. If I had as much talent as they did, I'd be chomping at the bit for the play to start too.
Now, Duke is a helluva story, but I'm not sold. They're good at everything, sure - they're the kind of team that could find a way to exploit a better-but-less-balanced squad. They've lost only two games this year, all the way back in weeks 3 and 4, to #28 Georgia Tech and #57 Pittsburgh. If they played those games again now, the Blue Devils would probably win them. But good-at-everything-great-at-nothing is simply not going to get it done against the Seminoles.
The Ruby Rankings Say:
#1 Florida State 49, Duke 17
The Big 12
Possible Champions (No Championship Game):
#3 Baylor
#12 Oklahoma State
#30 Texas
This is the same situation as the AAC: OK State gets in if they win; the other two play each other, and the winner of that game gets in if OK State falters.
#30 Texas at #3 Baylor
Obviously, my Ruby Rankings are a little higher on Baylor than your average pure W-L system (because my system takes stats into account, and Baylor wins stats any way you slice it. Baylor just... wins stats). I wrote about Baylor at length two weeks ago, when they remained at #2 in the Ruby Rankings even after losing to Oklahoma State by 32 points. So, at any rate, their stats haven't gotten any less silly. The Bears aren't what I would call a BCS Championship contender, but they're firmly in that next class, and if they can beat Texas, they deserve one of the 6 (or maybe 5, #16 NIU-pending) BCS at-large bids even if OK State beats #14 Oklahoma and wins the Big 12.
Texas, on the other hand, was just about ready to send Mack Brown out onto the street when they were sitting at 1-2 (the losses to #21 BYU and #27 Ole Miss don't look so bad in hindsight), and especially after they only managed to escape from Iowa State with a 31-30 win (a win that looks just as bad now as it did then; recall the Iowa State coach complaining that the refs took the upset away from the Cyclones on a bad fumble call). But then they beat Oklahoma in something of a must-win, and kept winning until, just like Baylor, they ran into Oklahoma State. I could just about copy-and-paste my analysis of Duke here for the Longhorns: good at everything, better than they were early, and probably not going to win against a superior team (unlike Duke, they have to go on the road).
The Ruby Rankings <3 Baylor:
#3 Baylor 37, #30 Texas 21
#14 Oklahoma at #12 Oklahoma State
Even if this isn't an actual "championship game," because OU can't win the Big 12 regardless of this result, it kind of feels like one. Oklahoma State doesn't like older brother getting all the spotlight all the time, and Oklahoma is wondering why that other team from the state keeps showing up and trying to actually win. Oklahoma is a run-first team; they're 100th in the country in passing and 15th in rushing. Indeed, they have a veritable stable of running backs, with 5 guys (burgers and fries?) over 250 rushing yards. They haven't been burying teams, though, and they're only outscoring their opponents by an average of 10 points per game. That's very good, but not elite.
Oklahoma State is the inverse of Oklahoma; they air it out, using the run to keep defenses honest. OKST has also been outscoring opponents by 23, and that is elite. Their one loss is a pretty bad one - 30-21 to #94 West Virginia in the first Big 12 game of the year - but that can and will be forgiven if you can beat Baylor, Texas, and Oklahoma in the same year. This team's on a 7-game winning streak, and you could make a legitimate argument that every single one of those wins was better than the one before.
The Ruby Rankings think this will be closer than the pundits say, but they still like Orange to squeak past Red:
#12 Oklahoma State 21, #14 Oklahoma 19
The Big 10
Championship Game: #2 Ohio State vs. #10 Michigan State
Ohio State is like Oklahoma on speed. Or... with speed. Or something. But #2 in the country in rushing, #3 in scoring, this is the type of team that is deceptively difficult to deal with: they are not always flashy, but the second they get a lead, they will grind... you... down... with run after run after run. In fact, that's traditional Big 10 football in a nutshell. We all know about Urban Meyer, and Braxton Miller, and whatnot, but Carlos Hyde has been the hero of this team. He's 6th in the nation in rushing, and is 2nd in yards-per-carry among guys with 150 carries or more. When both halves of your read-option gain 7 per play, it'll take a tremendous defense to even have a chance to stop you.
And, what do you know? Michigan State has just that. Sparty is far and away the best rushing defense in the country, allowing fewer than 70 yards per game on the ground (about a total of 9 Carlos Hyde rushes), and they figure, "you know what? Just for kicks, let's go ahead and slot in at 9th in the country in passing defense too. You know... just to be cool like that." I could keep going - 6th in turnover margin, 6th-toughest to score a TD on in the red zone, etc. - but that would just be harping on the unbeatable object against the undefeated force metaphor. Or, something like that. Ultimately, the question is whether MSU's offense will be able to score on the Buckeyes. They're only averaging 29.4 ppg (64th), but OSU's allowed a lot of points recently: an even 90 over the last 3 weeks.
Ultimately, the Ruby Rankings like the Buckeyes to earn their Title Game bid:
#2 Ohio State 24, #10 Michigan State 17
C-USA
#37 Marshall vs. #47 Rice
The Marshall Thundering Herd, named after the movie starring Matthew McConaughey (kidding, kidding), earned their spot here by defeating #36 East Carolina in what was a de facto semifinal. As I mentioned in this week's Ruby Rankings, Marshall is the epitome of balanced, ranking 21st in the country in both rushing and passing. No C-USA team is going to blow you away with its schedule, but these guys pushed #24 Virginia Tech to triple overtime on the road in week 4. They're 7-1 since then, and are led by junior QB Rakeem Kato, who's carved up in-conference competition to the tune of 25 TDs and 4 INTs.
The Rice Owls, on the other hand, run a lot. In fact, they run so much that they feel justified in keeping a 4'9" walk-on RB, Jayson Carter, on the roster (listen, if you're 4'9" and anywhere near an FBS football field, you've gotta be one tough, hard-working sumbit). This team has 10 more rushing TDs than passing TDs (somewhat unusual in college football these days). They even love the run game so much that they've bulked up their pass defense - 12th in the nation - to get the other team to run more (probably). The good news for them is that Marshall is from Kentucky, and the only teams to beat Rice this year are from their home state of Texas: #26 Texas A&M, #38 Houston, and #44 North Texas.
The Ruby Rankings are Thundering with the Herd:
#37 Marshall 27, #47 Rice 24
Note: The winner of the C-USA goes to the Liberty Bowl to play the 8th-selected team from the SEC, probably #53 Vanderbilt or #45 Mississippi State.
The MAC
#16 Northern Illinois vs. #42 Bowling Green
All debates about whether Northern Illinois is worthy of a BCS-bid aside, this is a special team to watch. And an exciting team, if their average game score (43-24) is to be believed. The Huskies are fourth in the nation in rushing, with two 1,000 yard runners. The more prolific of the duo, Jordan Lynch, just happens to be their QB. He's passed for over 2,400 and ran for over 1,700 this year, which should tell you a couple things: 1) Don't. Miss. Watching. This. Kid. Play. He's got two games left in his career. Catch one of them, at least. 2) If this kid gets hurt, these guys are in big, big trouble.
Bowling Green is another one of those teams like... how do I say this... like the MAC version of Duke and Texas (see above), who are pretty good at most things and pretty unspectacular. Well, their 13.8 points against per game is 5th in the country, and that's spectacular, but they've been doing that against MAC competition, which is decidedly unspectacular. The upshot of all this is: the MAC's not very good, but it's got a damn good player and team (Jordan Lynch and Northern Illinois) and... these guys are the best of the rest.
The Ruby Rankings say the best of the rest can't touch the best:
#16 Northern Illinois 42, #42 Bowling Green 32
Note: If they don't get a BCS bid, the winner of the MAC will play the #2-selected Sun Belt team, very likely #68 Arkansas State or #67 Western Kentucky, in the godaddy.com bowl.
The Mountain West Conference
#39 Fresno State vs. #41 Utah State
This was supposed to be the game that would seal Fresno State's 13-0 season and BCS berth (they were ranked ahead of Northern Illinois until Fresno's surprising loss to #76 SJSU last weekend), but we can forget all that now, and this game has the Las Vegas Bowl - and a date with the 5th-selected Pac 12 team, probably #18 Washington - on the line. The Bulldogs lead the nation in passing yardage, putting up 410 per game on the arm of Derek Carr, who's twelve years younger than his older brother David Carr (who similarly put up huge passing numbers for Fresno State). The Bulldogs aren't a terrible running team, by any means, with a 700 yard rusher and a 600 yard rusher, but they're clearly a pass-first unit. As you might expect from a team that airs it out to score 47 points a game, they also allow a bunch of pass yards and points: 280 per game (9th-worst in the country) and 30.2 per game (85th in the nation) respectively. A huge part of this team's success is its offensive line: for passing the ball the 6th-most times in the country, they've only allowed 8 sacks on the year, which is the 2nd-fewest in the nation. That's an almost unbelievable stat; before writing that, I had to double-check to make sure it was true.
Utah State also beats their opponents by 17 points on average, but they do so to a 33.9-16.8 tune (that 16.8 ppg allowed is 9th-best in the nation). This is the second year in a row that the Aggies have been a very solid team; recall their win over Utah early last year (they finished the season 11-2, with losses to Wisconsin and BYU by a combined 5 points). They didn't snag any big wins this year, but pushed Utah to 30-26 and USC to 17-14, both on the road. Note that this is Utah State's first year in the Mountain West; last year, they pounded their way through the now-defunct WAC. This will also be Utah State's chance to exorcise old demons; the last time these teams played, the aforementioned Derek Carr turned a 31-24 halftime deficit into a 41-31 win at the Aggies' expense.
The Ruby Rankings say "Pick 'em":
#39 Fresno State 31, #41 Utah State 30
The Pac-12
#6 Arizona State vs. #8 Stanford
Back in the first Ruby Rankings of the season, the Sun Devils of Arizona State were 8th even though they didn't show up in the BCS rankings. I noted that the pollsters didn't think very highly of them (they were among the "others receiving votes"), they had top-ten statistical and RPI profiles. Basically, my computer recognized how good they were, and the silly voters didn't. It turned out that the other computers also recognized how good they were, at least more than the silly voters: when they first showed up in the BCS rankings in week 11, they were 24th in both polls and 17th on the computers, with their highest ranking at 11th. Coming into this week, the voters have them 13th and the computers have them 6th - finally some agreement between the Ruby Rankings and the BCS Comps! ASU is a very strong team, with a definite pass-heavy slant. A casual observer would be tempted to put them into the whole "Duke, Texas, Bowling Green" category I've created, but that would ignore 1) that, unlike those teams, ASU's combination of good-but-not-great offense and defense translate into a very good points per game spread (43.3-24.8), and 2) the Pac 12 is way, way, way, way better this year than either the ACC or the Big 12. It's not even close. This will be a rematch of the first of ASU's two losses; Stanford took them 42-28 at home in week 3.
We all know about Stanford from their performances busting up #9 Oregon this year and last. This is as close to a smash-mouth football team as you'll get west of SEC country, and coach David Shaw is often cited as one of the brightest minds in the game. While Arizona State isn't as "finesse" as Oregon seems to try to be when they play Stanford, the Cardinal defense should be rearing to go: Arizona State's allowed the 20th-most sacks this season, and Stanford's inflicted the 10th-most sacks. It's worth noting that Stanford's not particularly strong in the red zone; their 26-for-45 TD rate is only good for 86th in the nation.
The Ruby Rankings have been high on Arizona State all year; "why stop now?", they cry!:
#6 Arizona State 25, #8 Stanford 21
The SEC
#4 Missouri vs. #5 Auburn
Missouri's gotta be sitting there saying, "what am I, chopped liver?", a la Daffy Duck or Sylvester or whichever of those Looney Tunes characters said that (I can't remember). Auburn's miraculous win over #7 Alabama in the Iron Bowl (and, hell, Auburn's miraculous win over #25 Georgia a few weeks ago) has thrust them into the spotlight, and the Tigers, whose only loss was in double overtime to #11 South Carolina (for South Carolina giving a team their only loss of the season by 3 points, see also: UCF, above), are flying under the radar despite having been ranked higher than Auburn virtually the entire season. Missouri is a far more balanced team than Auburn, and the big question is at QB. That's not because they don't have someone talented enough - they, in fact, have two guys: James Franklin has nearly 2,000 passing yards, and Maty Mauk racked up 1,000 filling on for Franklin when he was injured - but because Franklin may not be 100% after returning from his shoulder injury, and I'm not entirely convinced he gives this team the best chance to win. Whoever it is, the game will be on his (partially-injured?) shoulders: of all SEC teams, Auburn allows the 2nd-most passing yards per game.
That being said, Auburn's defense is better than the sum of its parts: despite having the 11th total defense in the SEC, they've got the 5th scoring defense. A big part of that is red zone defense, in which Auburn is 7th in the country (and 8th-best at preventing TDs). For as bad as they are at stopping the run, Auburn is even better at running it themselves; their 310 ypg is far and away the best in the SEC (Missouri's in 2nd, 80 ypg behind). Basically, this should be a high-scoring game with lots and lots of running, and lots of Missouri passing, and even more Auburn running, and maybe just enough Auburn passing in the last minute to pull out another miracle.
The Ruby Rankings say 2 miracles are enough:
#4 Missouri 35, #5 Auburn 31
And, just for kicks, and so you know what the affiliations are (I think it's really interesting, so, what the hell):
JOE'S BOWL PREDICTIONS:
Note: There are six more eligible teams than Bowl berths. The eligible teams without bowls will be: Buffalo, Ohio, CMU, Arkansas State, Troy, and Louisiana-Monroe.
December 21
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
UNLV (MWC #4) vs Washington State (Pac-12 #7)
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
Fresno State (MWC #1) vs Washington (Pac-12 #5)
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
San Diego State University (MWC #6) vs Ball State (MAC #3)
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Tulane (C-USA #6) vs Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt #1)
December 23
Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
Florida Atlantic (Usually AAC #6, AAC has 4 eligible teams) vs North Texas (C-USA #4)
December 24
Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
San Jose State University (MWC #5) vs East Carolina (C-USA #2)
December 26
Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl
Bowling Green (MAC #2) vs Oregon State (Usually Big Ten #8, Big 10 has 7 eligible teams)
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Boise State (MWC #2) vs Toledo (MAC #4; Army is not bowl eligible or they would be in this spot)
December 27
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
Middle Tennessee (C-USA #5) vs North Carolina (ACC #8)
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Pittsburgh (Usually Big 12 #6, but Big 12 has 6 eligible teams and 2 in BCS) vs Minnesota (Big Ten #6)
Fight Hunger Bowl
BYU (automatic) vs Arizona (Pac-12 #6)
December 28
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Notre Dame (automatic) vs Houston (AAC #4)
Belk Bowl
Cincinnati (AAC #3) vs Duke (ACC #5)
Russell Athletic Bowl
Louisville (AAC #2) vs Clemson (ACC #2)
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Texas Tech (Big 12 #4) vs Wisconsin (Big Ten #4)
December 30
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Navy (automatic) vs UTSA (C-USA #7)
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Vanderbilt (SEC #7) vs Georgia Tech (ACC #6)
Valero Alamo Bowl
Oregon (Pac-12 #2) vs Texas (Big 12 #3)
National University Holiday Bowl
USC (Pac-12 #3) vs Nebraska (Big Ten #5)
December 31
AdvoCare V100 Bowl
Colorado State (Usually SEC #10, but SEC has 10 eligible teams and two in BCS) vs Boston College (ACC #7)
Hyundai Sun Bowl
UCLA (Pac-12 #4) vs Virginia Tech (ACC #4)
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Marshall (C-USA #1) vs Mississippi (SEC #8)
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Clemson (ACC #2) vs Texas A&M (SEC #5)
January 1
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl
Nebraska (Big Ten #5) vs Georgia (SEC #6)
Heart of Dallas Bowl
Iowa (Big Ten #7) vs Rice (C-USA #3)
Capital One Bowl
Michigan State (Big Ten #2) vs Auburn (SEC #2)
Outback Bowl
Michigan (Big Ten #3) vs LSU (SEC #4)
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO
Baylor (Usually Big Ten #1, Ohio State in BCS Championship) vs Arizona State (Pac-12 #1)
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma State (Big 12 #1) vs Northern Illinois (BCS Non-AQ Auto)
January 2
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Missouri (SEC #1) vs UCF (AAC #1)
January 3
Discover Orange Bowl
Alabama (Usually ACC #1, FSU in BCS Championship) vs Stanford (BCS At-Large)
AT&T Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma (Big 12 #2) vs South Carolina (SEC #3)
January 4
BBVA Compass Bowl
Syracuse (Usually AAC #5, but AAC has 4 eligible teams) vs Mississippi State (SEC #9)
January 5
GoDaddy.com Bowl
Marshall (MAC #1) vs Western Kentucky (Sun Belt #2)
January 6
VIZIO BCS National Championship
Florida State (BCS #1) vs Ohio State (BCS #2)
Note that Tulane, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisville, Cincinnati, BYU, and Navy have already accepted their bids as noted above.
Check back soon for analysis of the bowl games, including the first ever Ruby Rankings Bowl Confidence Challenge!
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