Joe's 2013 MLB Picks: National League

My 2013 NL Picks, originally published March 31, 2013

NL East

Washington Nationals - 96-66

There's absolutely no reason the Nationals shouldn't, once again, lead the MLB in wins. So, I have them doing just that. This pitching staff is downright ridiculous, and may have even improved with the additions of Dan Haren and Rafael Soriano. In terms of batting, there's no one on this team who will be a clear top 3 NL player at each position, but - and this is the important part - there's no one here who will clearly not be in the top 5 or so for the league. Everywhere you look on this team you see upside, upside, upside. Last year, the still-teenaged Bryce Harper ended up being fantastic. He was energetic and added great defensive upside. But here's the really scary part for other teams: from his first game on April 28th until August 15th - that's 371 ABs - he hit .245 with 10 HRs. From that point on - in 162 ABs - he hit .327 with 11 HRs. That's horrifying. Even though, still being only 20, he very likely won't pick up exactly where he left off, it should take him a lot fewer than 371 ABs to find his stroke. And then, watch out: the NL may have another Ryan Braun.

Atlanta Braves - 89-73

I'm not as high on this Atlanta squad as many are, but I still think they'll get back to the playoffs. Jason Heyward is a popular MVP pick this year. Am I on the bandwagon? Scroll down to the awards section at the bottom of the page to see! Any way you look at it, though, this is a team with average-to-above-average pitching and clearly above average hitting. Everyone's really excited about the Upton brothers, and why shouldn't they be? They both hit their 99th HRs on the same day, and their 100th HRs on the same day, so the Braves should be getting 2-for-the-price-of-1 quite a bit. Their SS Andrelton Simmons could be very good very fast, providing solid average and power and plus-fielding and -speed. I've always been a bit hesitant about this pitching staff, but they really proved me wrong last year. Tim Hudson will turn 38 this year, but he's never had a losing record and, save his injury-filled 2009 campaign, in which he only started 7 ML games, he's never posted fewer than 11 wins. He's quietly incredible, so there's no reason to think he'll slow down. A little drop-off from both Kris Medlen and Craig Kimbrel can be expected, but that should be counterbalanced by Brandon Beachy's return from Tommy John surgery sometime around the All-Star break. He should be in no rush, however, because his spot's being filled by 22-year-old Julio Teheran, who many are projecting for NL ROY honors. This team is nearly as solid as the Nationals with only about half the upside, and that's why they're halfway between .500 and the Nationals.

Philadelphia Phillies - 83-79

This is generous, but some of my doom-and-gloom forebodings have actually been dispelled by my research over the past few days. Domonic Brown has been hitting incredibly well in Spring Training. That usually doesn't mean anything, but there are demonstrable reasons to believe that a change in mechanics, rather than randomness over a small period of time, is bringing about this change. The Phillies still have a top-5 starting rotation (although we'll see if Halladay's 2012 season was a valley or a cliff), with John Lannan and Kyle Kendrick replacing Vance Worley and Joe Blanton, and the rotation, with new addition Mike Adams, actually projects as league-average or better. I really like Ben Revere in CF, although he's very, very likely to finish his career with more inside-the-park HRs than normal ones. Chase Utley is still a very productive hitter when he's healthy (and the difference between him playing 100 games and 140 game will be enormous for the Phils), and the catcher position, with lots a Carlos Ruiz and a fair amount of Eric Kratz, looks like a plus. That's where the good news ends, though, as Howard is now an outright liability at 1B, Michael Young is old and pretty much worn out, Jimmy still has some pop but also a lot of pop-ups, and the corner OF spots - barring a real Brown breakthrough (see above) - are going to be well-below league average. I think they finish just on the right side of .500 thanks to their pitching, but there's very little upside here.

New York Mets - 74-88

With today's news that Johan Santana will need surgery and very well might call it a career, this projection might be a touch rosy (although it's unclear how much value he would've added anyway). With RA Dickey gone and new acquisition (and perennial Joe Ruby Favorite) Shaun Marcum hurt to start the year, the opening day rotation will be Niese, Gee, and three bums, making a grand total of 5 bums. I kid, I kid, I actually like Niese, but the Mets will have to score lots of runs to keep up, and they're probably not going to be able to do it. David Wright put up a really great season last year, but in his age-30 season it's going to be hard for him to repeat. Their outfield is made up of two rejects and the third-worst position player in the major leagues last year in terms of WAR (ahead of Eric Hosmer, who gets a pass because he's just 23 and has big upside, and - gulp - new Phillies' acquisition Michael Young). It's possible that Daniel Murphy can get that average back up in the ~.315 range, and Ike Davis could keep the 32 HRs while raising that .227 average, but right now, the major plus side for this team is that they're going to be giving lots of playing time to a player named Jordany Valdespin. And I don't mean to imply that he's an exciting prospect or anything (a 25-y.o. who projects as about league average). But man he's got a cool name. I'll giggle every time I'm watching a game and he comes up.

Miami Marlins - 61-101

Fangraphs ranked each team by how much production they were expected to get from each position this year. For the NL, there are 10 positions (breaking up SP and RP). The Marlins project as the worst in the majors at 4 of them (C, 2B, 3B, and LF) and Bottom 5 in 4 more (1B, SS, CF, and SP). The good news: they've got maybe the very brightest young star in the National League in Giancarlo Stanton, who very well might go .280/40/120 with plus-fielding. The bad news: all the rest. I can't take credit for this sentiment, but it's definitely true: if you're not going to win 70 games, you might as well not win 70 games with a cheap lineup of crap players than with an expensive lineup of underachieving players.

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds - 93-69

Lots and lots to like here. The new addition - Shin-Soo Choo - upgrades them enough to make up for the possibility that their starting pitching falls off a bit from last year. Joey Votto is by and large Fangraphs' favorite hitter, they seem to have found a high-value guy behind the plate in 32-year-old Ryan Hanigan, and the Reds won't be surrendering many late leads with Johnathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, and Aroldis Chapman pitching the 7th, 8th, and 9th. The Reds are filled with players entering or still in their prime, and should have at least 3 good years left with this group. Johnny Cueto's BB/9 has fallen every year he's been in the league, and there's good reason to believe he may actually improve on his 19-9 campaign from last year. The 27-year-old could have a monster season if he remains durable enough to snag 200+ IP, which he did for just the first time last year.

St. Louis Cardinals - 88-74

This shouldn't really be a surprising pick. The last five years, the Cardinals have won 88, 90, 86, 91, and 86 games. They are the model of consistency. And, for the sixth year in a row now, there's a lot to like about this squad. Listen, Yadier Molina isn't going to repeat last year's numbers - there's practically no way he could, right? (watch me eat my words) - but he'll still be one of the top 3 catchers in the Major Leagues (fangraphs puts him second, right behind Posey). Allen Craig looks poised to have his best year ever, and could very well post .300/25/100. You'll get decent production at every position (except maybe 2B), and the starting pitching's right up there with anyone's. The loss of Kyle Lohse should be made up for by improvements from Wainwright (who was still bothered by TJ surgery in the first half but got back to his old self after the break) and Lance Lynn (who probably won't get 18 wins again but should pitch more innings than ever), as well as the call-up of Shelby Miller, their current fifth starter and popular NL ROY pick. Holliday has been virtually the same player for the last three years now, and, although he's 33 and might drop off a bit, there's no reason to think the wheels will come off any time soon. If they do, though, and Carlos Beltran also falls apart (last two seasons: 151 and 142 games; two before that: 64 and 81, plus he turns 36 in April), they might not have enough offensive options. The outlook is healthy, but this is a team with above-average injury risk.

Milwaukee Brewers - 85-77

I've always been something of a closet Brewers' fan, and this team could very well finish below .500, but I like this team to beat their projections and challenge for the division for most of the year. Ryan Braun will continue to be fantastic, and should be good for at least .315/35/105. Aramis Ramirez, Johnathan Lucroy, and Carlos Gomez are all above average, you know what you'll get with Rickie Weeks (That is, great power and decent speed for a 2B, combined with poor average and terrible fielding, thus breaking about even), and last year's under-the-radar acquisition of Norichika Aoki turned out to be a great find, as he was quietly consistently good in CF. So, what I'm saying is this: If the Brewers fall on their faces this year, it's not going to be because of their hitting. The pitching staff is really going to need to outperform their projections for 84-86 wins to become a reality. The recent signing of Kyle Lohse helps (I've been a big fan of his ever since his nice stopgap performance for the Phils), and Yovani Gallardo should continue to be electric, if not exactly brilliant, but the losses of Greinke and Marcum mean that the back end of this rotation is looking grim. Marco Estrada actually pitched better last year than his 5-7 record suggests, and there's some good upside from 23-year-old Wily Peralta and Mike Fiers (who can definitely be an above-average fifth starter), but it's not clear how the situation will materialize. Plus, the bullpen is terrible (29th, by FG's estimation).

Pittsburgh Pirates - 72-90

Unfortunately, it'll be 21 straight years on the wrong side of the coin flip for the Black and Gold. This team is actually just like a slightly-less-talented version of the Brewers: one great, MVP-caliber OF, a lot of exciting-but-flawed infield bats, an average-to-below-average rotation and a crummy 'pen. Obviously, it's impossible not to heap accolades on Andrew McCutchen, who finished behind only Posey and Braun in last year's MVP race. He was good-to-very-good from 22-24, and stepped it up to elite last year. His BAPIP was enormous last year, jumping from .291 in 2011 to .375 in 2012. For non-baseball-stats people, that means he's very unlikely to hit .327/31/107 again. But if he can put up, say, .310/25/95 with 25 steals, he'll be right back in the MVP discussion. The Pirates' infield has a ton of power potential, with Jones, Walker, Barmes and Alvarez hitting 27, 14, 8, and 30 last year. The 31-year-old Jones is unlikely to ever get over 22-24 again, but there are reasons (ranging from bad to good) to believe that the other three will actually improve on their totals from last year. They'll also strike out a ton but, you know, with a team that's just trying to get over .500, you'll take the good with the bad. The pitching staff has all of the questions and none of the upside of the Brewers. It was really good for Burnett to get out of NY, but at 36 he's probably not going to be much better than above-average. He's certainly not an ace. Wandy Rodriguez is also falling off at age 34. James McDonald is a quandary, as he kicked butt in the first half of last year and limped to the finish with an ERA over 12 in his last 3 months. He could end up very bad or quite good, but will probably fall in between. Ultimately, just not enough talent, despite McCutchen. Another losing season.

Chicago Cubs - 71-91

Things are actually looking up for the Cubs, and they could be a team that surprises people and approaches .500. But it's hard to go from 101 losses to 81 losses, and their quiet talent up the middle won't be enough. Alfonso Soriano still produces (though not nearly at a rate commensurate with his contract), but David DeJesus and Nate Schierholtz won't raise any eyebrows. Darwin Barney is one of the most underrated players in the NL, and even though we've been waiting 3 years for Starlin Castro to finally break out, he's 23, so we'll be willing to wait a few more. He went .283/14/78 last year, but .320/15/85 isn't out of the question. Plus, there's a darn good possibility Anthony Rizzo will break out this year. Ultimately, I think this infield's about 1 year away from being really good. Jeff Samardzija's improved every year in the league, and he's got the stuff to become a borderline ace sooner rather than later. Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood, and Scott Feldman are a decent 2-3-4. So, I think they get halfway back from a bad, bad low to .500 this year. It'll be up to Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer to get them the rest of the way and beyond by the latter half of this decade.

Houston Ast.... Just kidding '-)

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers - 92-70

If you were paying attention, you know that I thought all that money the Dodgers spent last year could buy them happiness. I still think that. It's just been delayed a year. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier should be fully healthy, and, while Carl Crawford's time with the Red Sox was, let's just say it, downright abysmal, even a tiny return to TB form should make this outfield one of the few best in the NL. Their talented Ellis and Ellis duo is very solid, and having a good 2B and C is a great way to build a team. There's no way that Adrian and Hanley will not improve on their combined totals from last year, even with Ramirez starting the season on the DL. We all know what Clayton Kershaw can do and has done (he's the closest thing in the NL to Justin Verlander; the fact that he's not that close to Verlander is a testament to the freakish nature of the Tigers' Ace), and I've long been a Chad Billingsley apologist. With Zack Greinke and electric bullpen arm Kenley Jansen, this squad should be above average almost everywhere. I think this is finally the year the Dodgers' investment pays off. Will they pay for it down the road? We'll see.

San Francisco Giants - 86-76

A bit of a fall-off for the returning champs, I reckon. Recall that last year I picked this team to meet-or-exceed expectations and win the division, so know that I'm not simply badmouthing them. They won the WS three years ago, and followed it with an 86-76 record. So, I'm guessing history will simply repeat itself. It's worth note that the Giants are the team whose statistical projection differs the greatest from public perception about them; many people are expecting 90-95 wins, while Fangraphs ranks them as only the 14th-best team in the majors (although, as FG takes tremendous pains to note, projections are all going to be extremely centered around the median, so the difference between the 7th-best and 14th-best teams, in terms of projections, is approximately one win). But here's where I see the falling-off between last year's 94-win team and this year's squad: Buster Posey will again be an MVP candidate but can't sustain last year's numbers. Hunter Pence is a better fantasy player than Melky Cabrera, but Melky means a lot more to a team, and so that replacement will overall hurt the Giants (unless Melky's production drops way down after his failed drug test, which I don't see happening). I'm also not as much of a fan of this pitching squad as most people are. I think Ryan Vogelsong's magical 2-year run ends sometime around the All Star Break (when he turns 36), Tim Lincecum will be better (how could he not be?) but is unlikely to find his Cy Young form, and Barry Zito is... well, come on... he's Barry Zito. In his age 30-34 seasons with the Giants, he went 33-61. So does his age-35 15-8 mark sound more like a trend or an aberration to you? Me too.

Arizona Diamondbacks - 84-78

There's a lot to like about this solid team, but they don't seem to have any real stars. I would actually put this 84 at the low end of their expectation, but I just can't see how these guys can separate themselves from the Dodgers and Giants. I will say this - if everything comes together - and I give that about a 20% chance of happening - this team could be the closest thing to this year's version of the 2012 Nationals. But I don't think everything will come together. Aaron Hill flew under the radar for a HUGE 5.4 WAR season last year, but that followed up 1.1 and 0.5 campaigns, and he's now on the wrong side of 30. They flipped Justin Upton for Martin Prado, which filled a void at 3rd AND opened up CF for Adam Eaton (no, not that Adam Eaton, a different, good, ROY-caliber Adam Eaton). Miguel Montero is one of the five best catchers in the NL, but aside from him, they'll be average-to-above-average at every single other position in the field. This team's real strength is its pitching, but saying that gives one pause when one sees the names in the rotation: Kennedy, Cahill, Miley, McCarthy, and Corbin. Ian Kennedy is good, but he's not a true #1. Cahill will do what he always does: strike out almost no one, allow very few HRs, walk a few too many, and win a game or two more than he loses. Wade Miley was fantastic as a rookie last year, but sophomore slumps happen all the time. No one knows if Brandon McCarthy will be the same after the season-ending line drive last year and, if he is, he's still one of the most injury-prone SPs out there. And, finally, who's Patrick Corbin? Meh, a .500 youngster who's exactly like every other pitcher on this staff. I just don't see this team doing anything spectacular. They could. But I don't see it.

Colorado Rockies - 77-85

This team was BAD last year. Make no mistake. But I see them taking a significant step forward, due in no small part to the return of a (presumably) healthy Troy Tulowitzki. He continues to be one of the most skilled players in the NL, and the only thing between him and monster numbers is his health. Carlos Gonzalez has also been bothered by injuries, but, again, he should be able to improve on last season's numbers (he's 27 this year, which is sort of the magic number). The outfield will be solid with CarGo, Dexter Fowler (who actually, because of all the injuries, led the team in WAR last year), and Michael Cuddyer, who has, for his career, performed far better in odd-numbered years than even-numbered ones. Any significance to that? Who the hell knows? For as kind as I'm being to their lineup, the pitching staff remains pretty abysmal. Jorge De La Rosa is back from TJ faster than expected (10 months; average is 12 or 13), so he's extremely risky given that he's old and he's never met expectations. And that's the bright spot. Yikes. The whole rotation is made up of guys whose names start with J, and is mostly guys whose names start with J who no one else wanted (Jeff Francis, Jon Garland, etc). This many wins is probably optimistic for these guys, but you just can't discount how high the ceiling could be for Tulo and CarGo if they both stay healthy and go off at the same time.

San Diego Padres - 67-95

Chase Headley had an enormous breakout year in his last campaign, snagging 7.2 WAR with a .286/31/115 line. That most likely means one of two things: last year was a fluke, and he'll fall way off this season, or last year was for real, and he'll probably be traded. Remember how I just said 27 was the magic number for hitters? Well, whaddya know: he was 27 last year. He should be all-star caliber through his early 30s, but it's unlikely he'll ever duplicate his monster 2012 season. The Padres have a bunch of players who are a year or two away still: Yonder Alonso (who needs to work on his power), Alexi Amaristo (who, like the similar Emilio ,can play every position outside the battery), and Jedd Gyorko, who at 2B (he'll play his natural 3B until Headley returns from injury, but will probably then shift to 2B or LF) is a popular ROY pick. As for the hurlers, their best pitcher - Cory Luebke - will miss a few months to start the year, Edinson Volquez will continue to walk 5 per 9, making .500 the highest reasonable goal, and Clayton Richard might - might - strike out 5 per 9 and snag anther 14-14 campaign. So, the final verdict: The upside in the outfield is aging, the upside in the infield is a couple years away, and the upside in the pitching staff is non-existent.

MVP Picks:

1. I've gotta do it. Troy Tulowitzki. I just get the feeling he's going to have an enormous season, justify all that money the Rockies decided to give him, and take home the hardware.
2. Joey Votto. Maybe the best pure hitter in the NL.
3. Jason Heyward. Has a real chance to go from very good to great this year, especially with the Braves' boosted offense around him.
4. Giancarlo Stanton. Only this far down because his team is terrible, it's tough to get the accolades without both power and speed, and, hell, he may get traded tomorrow. No one knows with the Marlins.
5. Ryan Braun. Model of consistency.

Cy Young Picks:

1. Zack Greinke. Finally, I think, he'll be at home.
2. Stephen Strasburg. Still not convinced the Nationals will give him a chance to do it this year. It may not matter. Also note that he's a damn good hitter (although this has nothing to do with Cy Young, he may just get the Silver Slugger too).
3. Cole Hamels. IF the Phillies make the playoffs, it'll be because Cole puts up a career year.
4. Johnny Cueto. Maybe the second-highest upside (behind Strasburg).
5. Clayton Kershaw. Too talented not to include. He might be top-3 for the next 5 years.

ROY: Adam Eaton

AL will come out sometime next week! ENJOY!!!