My 2013 AL Picks, originally published April 4, 2013
So by now you've all read the 4,139 words of my National League
predictions. In fact, you've probably read them twice or thrice so as to
better remember them. But reading 4,000 words over and over can only
take up so much of your time, and you're all obviously clamoring for
more of my misguided prognostications! Well, we'll hop right into it.
AL East
Tampa Bay Rays - 90-72
This
division is the very definition of a logjam. The AL Central is too, but
four of those five teams are jammed up around 72 wins, not 87. So, this
division is the very definition of a logjam worth caring about and
following closely. The Rays are
clearly the team in this
division with the fewest questions, and are quite possibly the team with
the most talent. Thus, it's only natural that they rise to the top. On
the offensive side, it starts and ends with Evan Longoria. If he plays a
whole, healthy season, he's virtually guaranteed a top-5 MVP finish.
His games played, though, have fallen over the last 4 years
(157>151>133>74), so there's some risk. Ben Zobrist is on the
Rays' depth chart at five different positions, and having a guy like
that allows you to really exploit matchups and platoon advantages. BJ
Upton's gone, but Desmond Jennings can be a borderline star if he can
get his average up from .246. He's got 20 HR/40 SB potential. There are
some new, role-filling faces in James Loney at 1B and Yuniel Escobar at
SS (who the Rays got on the cheap following a poor season that was
probably something of a fluke), and this offense will be solid at worst
and spectacular if Longoria, Jennings, and Zobrist can each manage to
perform closer to their talent ceilings than talent floors. The pitching
staff is very strong from the top-down. They have a true front-line ace
in Cy Young winner David Price, a potential Cy Young contender (in a
few years) in Matt Moore, and a great back end with Jeremy Hellickson
(the most statistically anomalous pitcher in baseball), Alex Cobb, and
fill-in #5 Roberto Hernandez (who used to be known by his fake name
Fausto Carmona). Their closer, Fernando Rodney, put up a .60 ERA en
route to a 5th-place Cy Young finish. These guys are actually the AL's
version of the St. Louis Cardinals. Good everywhere, and always have a
young player ready to step in.
Boston Red Sox - 87-75
Two
years ago I picked this team to get 18 more wins than they actually
did. Last year I had them pegged for 22 more wins than they got. So,
they're likely gonna be back in the 60s if history is any indication.
But, just looking at this team, there's still a ton to like. Will
Middlebrooks has a chance to be a star at 3B, and sooner rather than
later. Easily has 40+ HR potential. Dustin Pedroia continues to be
incredibly productive, and had a much better second half last year.
Jackie Bradley Jr is a popular ROY pick, and it appears as though the
starting spot in LF is his to lose (Jonny Gomes is a very capable
replacement should the rookie struggle). JBJr is joined by Jacoby
Ellsbury and Shane Victorino, who should all make this an exciting - if
not exactly phenomenal - outfield. They still have Jarrod Longname
catching, and with Mike Napoli and Papi Ortiz at 1B and DH, should not
want for power. The pitching staff is where the real questions are. Jon
Lester went 9-14 last year, and his ERA jumped 1.35, to 4.82. The man
should snag a good comeback season, and none of the major prediction
engines believe he'll post an ERA above 4. Like all of the Red Sox, Clay
Buccholz started very poorly last season and then did quite well after
people stopped paying attention to him. Felix Doubrant has some good
upside, and Ryan Dempster and John Lackey, while not guaranteed to be
"good" at this point in their career, can do more than enough to help
this team win if the offense is there behind them. Which, as you see, I
actually think will be more often than not.
Toronto Blue Jays - 86-76
When
the Marlins bought all those players last year, I wasn't buying it.
Hence, when the Blue Jays bought the Marlins this year, I'm not buying
it. Ok, maybe 86-76 is pretty close to "buying it," but I don't think
this team will get into the playoffs. They probably should. I just don't
think they will. Here's why: R.A. Dickey won't come too close to his Cy
Young numbers. Not at 38 (probably doesn't matter for a knuckleball
pitcher). Not in the AL (this is more meaningful). Not in the best
division in baseball (more meaningful still). Not in a hitter-friendly
ballpark (a big deal). Now, listen. Knuckleballers don't change too much
from year to year; he'll probably be about 15-10 with a 3.5 ERA. Very
good, but not great. Josh Johnson was nowhere near his dominant self
when he returned from his injury, and a loss of about 1.5 mph from his
fastball may be why. It's unlikely he'll ever get that back. Mark
Buehrle is merely average at this point in his career, and Brandon
Morrow and JA Happ could be anywhere between great and middling. The
offense seems to be there: Reyes, Bautista, the
other M.
Cabrera (that'd be Melchior) and the late-peaking Edwin Encarnacion.
Man, I feel dumb writing this, but I'm just not convinced this team can
hold up in this tough division. Just call me a Doubting Thomas. Blue
Jays in the playoffs? I'll believe it when I see it.
New York Yankees - 83-79
I
have, at various points over the past month, had this team first in the
division, last in the division, and everywhere in between. I finally
settled on this record for them. It sort of symbolizes two things.
First, I don't believe they're going to crash and burn like a lot of
people do. Ultimately, all the injuries they have now might deprive them
of 2 or 3 wins over the course of the season. It's not like Curtis
Granderson missing a month is going to take them from 90 wins to 75.
Second, though, I still don't think they have as much talent as 3 other
teams in this division, and that's sad for Yankees' fans everywhere. I
mean, Vernon Wells. As an
upgrade. That's a problem. Robinson Cano's going to be amazing. Derek Jeter will be a little above average, and for someone his age,
that's amazing.
But it's unclear how much their lineup can stave off deterioration, and
they're not exactly packed with bench talent. A lot of people have made
a lot of noise about how much speed CC's fastball is losing, and at 33
years an 300 lbs, there's a lot of reason to be worried about whether he
can physically hold up. He didn't even average
90 on his
fastball in his first start. Phil Hughes has pretty much used up his
upside, and Hiroki Kuroda will be above average at best. Can Andy
Pettitte get anything done at 41 now? Maybe. Maybe not. Expecting 10
wins from him is generous. So, ultimately, this is a good team in a
great division. That means that they'll beat up on the outside and be
beat up when they get back inside.
Baltimore Orioles - 73-89
Definitely
the best team in the majors that also happens to be the worst team in
their division. But, despite last year's ridiculous playoff run, there's
just no justification for picking this team to be over .500. I just
keep yelling "their pitching staff isn't good" into the eternal empty
cosmic void, and the void responds by giving them one-run wins and
walkoffs. Well, not this year. Jason Hammel is a good #3, but he's not
an Ace, and it's unclear how he's going to do coming back from his knee
injury (when he tried to return last year, his ERA spiked and he hurt
himself again). The trio of Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, an Jake
Arrieta could literally finish with 20 fewer wins than losses. As
fangraphs notes of Miguel Gonzalez, who put up a 9-4 record last year:
"there's a reason the 29-year-old didn't debut until last season - he's
not that good." The pitching performance from last year was
unexplainable, except that to say that it's statistically explainable to
have, every season or two, a couple statistically unexplainable
results. The Orioles won a lot more games than their play says they
should have last season. Plain and simple. There's some upside in the
lineup, sure: Matt Wieters is a great talent at C, Manny Machado should
be an all-star in a couple of years, and Adam Jones and Nick Markakis
are good lineup anchors. But JJ Hardy's not getting any younger, nor is
Brian Roberts. There's just not enough here; the talent level is simply
lower than all of the other ones in their division. In the AL Central,
they'd be 2nd or 3rd. But they're in the AL East, and that means 5th.
AL Central
Detroit Tigers - 95-67
For
the second year in a row, the Tigers are the team most likely to reach
the playoffs, by virtue of being somewhere between a head and a torso
above the rest of their division. Miguel Cabrera hit for the Triple
Crown last year, and part of the reason he did that was because people
had to pitch to him.
Cabrera's walk rate fell from 15.7 to 9.5 (that's a huge drop)
primarily because he suddenly had Prince Fielder behind him. The Prince
hit .313 with 30 HRs - it's likely that first number will go down and
the second will go up this year - and that prevented pitchers from going
up there and throwing 4 out of the zone, just hoping Miggy would get
himself out. Well, that basically meant that, for every 15 chances
Cabrera had to hit the ball before, he had 16 last year. An increase
like that is the kind that pushes someone from
elite to
legendary.
It's a no-win for pitchers facing this lineup; Austin Jackson is a
star-in-the-making in CF, Jhonny "Not a Typo" Peralta is an
above-average hitting SS, and Alex Avila, despite taking a step back
last season, is a real + at C. And, with all of that, their hitting
might not be better than their pitching. This pitching staff goes
toe-to-toe with the Nationals'. Verlander is Verlander. When he steps on
the mound in the first, he's the best pitcher in baseball, and he gets
better every inning. Max Scherzer had a huge year last campaign, and
would be the #1 starter on at least 10 teams and probably 15. I've
always loved Doug Fister, and Anibal Sanchez/Rick Porcello give the
Tigers a 4 and 5 with a no-hitter and a should've-been perfect game.
Again, ridiculous. And the thing the Tigers have that the Nationals
don't (other than a few more years, which should temper expectations
just a
tiny bit) is a #6 starter with Ace potential, who graces
Detroit's bullpen to start the year in the person of Drew Smyly. At
just 23, he needs to really develop his stamina (he started to fall off
around the 90 IP mark last year), but can strike out over 9/9 and walk
fewer than a third of that. Joaquin Benoit may not be the perfect
closer, but he'll fill in just fine for a year while Bruce Rondon works
on controlling his 100 mph fastball at AAA, and many people feel that Al
"Also Not a Typo" Alburquerque is one of the most useful non-closer
arms in baseball. All in all, the most complete team in the AL, and
probably in the majors. They'll cruise.
White Sox - 83-79
Robin
Ventura absolutely deserved absolutely deserved Manager of the Year
last year, because the 85 wins he squeezed out of these guys were at or
higher than the top of almost every projection. These guys will get up
above .500 again thanks to beating up on the Indians and Twins, but,
again, not a ton of upside here. Just some ho-hum offense and
above-average-but-unlikely-to-be-spectacular pitching. Adam Dunn proved
that his power was back, following his apocalyptic 11 HRs in 2011 with
41 last year (although he only improved his batting average from .159 to
.204, and may never get back above .220), and Paul Konerko, now 37, has
fallen off for 3 straight years but will still continue to do, more or
less, what the Sox pay him for: drive in runs, hit some HRs with high
average, and be a warm body on the right side of the infield. Gordon
Beckham... remember how good he was supposed to be? Well, he's been very
very bad for three years now, and a breakthrough year might only put
him at league average. Alex Rios has been wildly inconsistent, and could
very well hit .300/25/95, .225/12/50, or anywhere in between. Alejandro
de Aza performed well in his first full big-league season last year,
but probably won't steal 26 again (speed drops off fast, and he'll be 29
next week). Chris Sale is a true ace, and could very well be dominant
again (if he doesn't get injured, which many are worried about because
of his weird release and skinny frame). Jake Peavy pitched far better
last year than his 11-12 record suggested, but Gavin Floyd pitched a
little worse than his 12-11 record suggested. Jose Quintana and Dylan
Axelrod will be average at best. Addison Reed is a serviceable closer,
but you never like when your closer's ERA is closer to 5 than 4 (hell,
you don't want your closer's ERA closer to 5 than 0). Pretty middling
season from this bunch.
Kansas City Royals - 80-82
I
picked these guys to get off the snide and snag a winning record last
year, and the Royals rewarded me by just doing what they always seem to
do, which is lose 90 games. Just like every year, there's a fair amount
to like and a little more to not like. Alex Gordon is a very good
player, finally finding the star potential that everyone knew he had as
early as 2007. He only had 14 HRs last year, but provides great defense,
double-digit steals, and a really great all-around game. Eric Hosmer
was pretty disappointing last year but still has good upside (though he
might not hit it this year). Mike Moustakas and Billy Butler are fine
players, as is Salvador Perez. And Lorenzo Cain. So is Alcides Escobar.
In fact, only Jeff Francoeur in RF looks like an outright liability. A
lot of the questions are about the pitching staff. James Shields and
Wade Davis (back in his normal starting role) are over from Tampa Bay,
but that might not be that great, actually. Davis will be average at
best, and Shields - of whom I am admittedly a fan - is moving to a more
hitter-friendly park, will no longer have the majors' best defense (by
far, if stats are to be believed) behind him, and has averaged 222 IP
over the last 6 years, which - now that he's 31 - makes him an injury
risk. Jeremy Guthrie simply has no upside, and hardly strikes out
anyone. Luis Mendoza will be an average 5 at best, and it looks like the
Royals picked up Ervin Santana a year or two too late. These guys are
the exact opposite of the White Sox: above-average lineup (with a small
chance of actually being spectacular), and poor, aging pitching. Just
under the coin flip.
Cleveland Indians - 73-89
Not
much to like here. Not much at all. Carlos Santana will continue to put
up above-average hitting numbers for a catcher, but Fangraphs has shown
that the Santana/Marson duo behind the plate actually outright harms
their pitchers in that they're terrible at framing (for instance, Derek
Lowe probably got
80 fewer strikes per 1000 pitches last year
because of those two). Pitch framing probably has the highest ratio of
how-much-it-actually-matters to how-much-people-
think-it-actually-matters
(outfield assists are probably the opposite). Jason Kipnis may very
well continue to improve. Asdrubal Cabrera and Michael Brantley
could
break out for .300/10/70 with 25 SBs, and Drew Stubbs's batting average
probably won't decline for the fourth season in a row
(.267>.255>.243>.213 isn't very reassuring, however). But their
best hitter is now taking Stubbs's place in Cincinnati, and there have
been very few improvements aside from Terry Francona, if any, on a team
that won a very disappointing 68 games last year. And the pitching staff
doesn't inspire confidence. As fangraphs has noted, Justin Masterson,
Ubaldo Jimenez, and Brett Myers would be a league-average 3-4-5. When a
league-average 3-4-5 is your 1-2-3, you've got a problem. Zach
McAllister's still only 25, but has a lifetime 4.47 ERA and gives up a
ton of home runs, and this team's 5th starter is a Cinderella Story if
we ever saw one: Scott Kazmir, who pitched so incredibly poorly in 2010
and 2011 that he pitched himself right out of the league and is now
trying to make a comeback. And he just hurt his abdomen yesterday and
may have to go on the DL. This is a team with a very low ceiling.
Minnesota Twins - 64-98
Speaking
of low ceilings, our buddies in Minnesota are in complete rebuilding
mode. Joe Mauer will continue to be valuable - although less so with
every game he plays at 1B - but that's about it. Last year, this team's
bright spot was its outfield, which accounted for huge portion of their
offense. So, the went ahead and got rid of two of the three (Denard Span
and Ben Revere) for one slightly-above-average SP (Vance Worley) and
two pitching prospects. This team had better have a killer rotation in 5
years, because if they don't the generally well-regarded front office
may be run out of town. Poor injury-riddled Justin Morneau doesn't
appear as though he'll ever be more than a shell of his former self, and
Trevor Plouffe has power and not much else (and was, in fact, the
third-worst fielding 3B last year by UZR, and the worst to not play in
Colorado). Pedro Florimon is a stopgap with no offensive upside, Chris
Parmelee should be average at best, and Brian Dozier and Aaron Hicks are
still 1 and 3 years away from contributing, it seems. That leaves the
only non-Mauer bright spot as Josh Willingham, who should bash about 25
HRs and be one of the team's best hitters-for-average if he can manage
.255. Meh. On the pitching side, this team has no Ace. This team has no
#2. They've just got a bunch of number 3s who are either unproven or
proven to be bad. Scott Diamond has one of the lowest strikeout rates in
the majors, Vance Worley will always have a place in my heart but is
really not that good, and Kevin Correia's posted a 12-11 record three of
the past four years, but his numbers have been getting worse and the
offense behind him will not be as good as he had in Pittsburgh. Liam
Hendriks has been great in the minors and horrible in the majors, and
Cole De Vries is a cool story (undrafted, from the Twin Cities) that
gives up an enormous amount of home runs. This team is a lot better than
the Astros, and a lot worse than every other team in the major leagues.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels - 94-68
First,
let's get one thing straight: Mike Trout will not put up another 10 WAR
season. It's impossible. He fell off a little towards the end of the
year last year, and his career BABIP will
not be .383 (although
it might be .345, which is ridonkulous). But that doesn't mean his team
won't be better. This squad is stacked. To say Josh Hamilton and Albert
Pujols are past their primes is like saying a billionaire doesn't have
as much buying power as he did five years ago. While technically true,
what with inflation and all, it's not as though the qualitative gap
between billionaires and everyone else has closed all that much.
Fangraphs writer Dave Cameron recently anointed Erick Aybar as the most
underrated player in baseball (taking up the title formerly held by
Angel Pagan), and the rest of the lineup - Howie Kendrick, Alberto
Callaspo, Chris Ianetta, Peter Bourjos (one of the best fielders in
baseball) and Mark Trumbo - screams "VALUE, VALUE, VALUE" everywhere you
look. This offense could be near-historic (or they could be merely
above-average; that's how baseball works). That being said, there's
definitely some cause for concern on the pitching side of things. Jered
Weaver will remain an ace, but looks to be dropping off somewhat due, in
part, to shoulder troubles (despite his 20-5 record last year, his
strikeouts were down while HRs were up). I expected CJ Wilson to kick
butt last year, but the results were middling. The back-end is made up
of three new acquisitions - Tommy Hanson (once thought of as an Ace in
the making but has actually gotten worse every season), Joe Blanton (who
is nothing but consistent, and serves an important role while not
actually providing a ton of upside), and Jason Vargas (who's like Joe
Blanton with fewer Ks and a lower ERA). This staff may have its low
points, but I think there's enough plus-talent on the offensive side of
things that Blanton can go out there, allow 4 runs, and still get the
win fairly often.
Texas Rangers - 91-71
The
Rangers have the unanimously-described most incredible, exciting,
talented, amazing, once-in-a-generation prospect, and they have no
bloody place to play him. If you don't know who Jurickson Profar is yet,
you will. The 19-year-old shortstop projects as a perennial All Star.
In what's certainly a good problem to have, the Rangers just locked up
the best defensive SS in the majors - Elvis Andrus - to an 8-year
extension, and have the always-consistent Ian Kinsler at 2B. Many are
predicting a move to 1B for Kinsler, or a possible trade of Profar for
an All Star pitcher. Just know that, even without Josh Hamilton, talent
abounds in Texas. Adrian Beltre is a four-time Gold Glove winner who can
smack the ball around, and the addition of AJ Pierzynski should make up
well for the loss of Napoli (who's simply not a catcher anymore
anyway). Leonys Martin is another youngster; he'll start in CF and try
his best to figure out how to hit even while providing webgem after
webgem in the field. David Murphy, Nelson Cruz, and Mitch Moreland are
all the kind of guys who you want in your lineup (although Moreland's
chances may be dwindling). And then there's the pitching staff, which is
actually probably the second-best in the AL. Yu Darvish's 8.2 innings
of perfection come as absolutely no surprise to stats-heads, who have
known he was incredible almost since his first start in the majors. He's
a strong Cy Young candidate. Matt Harrison and Derek Holland are each
good bets for 15 wins, and Alexei Ogando (who proved himself an elite
bullpen arm) could be a #2 on a lot of teams. Nick Tepesch has never
pitched in the majors, but earned the last roster spot and needs only be
close-to-average for this team to make the playoffs once again.
Oakland Athletics - 83-79
Like
the Orioles, these guys came from far off the radar last year to make
the playoffs; unlike the Orioles, their season wasn't particularly
"fluky." I don't think this team will get back to the playoffs, largely
because their talent is either old or young (and, either way, apt to be
inconsistent), but they will still manage some solid stretches
(inconsistent talent is still talent). Josh Reddick was a breakout star
at age 25 last year. An extraordinary percentage of the balls he puts in
play are fly balls, meaning his batting average will probably never
improve too much from the .242 mark he put up last year (has BABIP was a
ridiculously low .269), but he's a great fielder and can
consistently hit 30-35 HRs with 8-15 SBs. Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes
showed that the hype surrounding him was extremely justified; he went
.292/23/82 with 16 SBs. Add in Coco Crisp and you've got an outfield
that can hit 70 HRs and steal 70 bases, which is fantastic. It's
definitely one of the best units in the league, and the clear strength
of this squad. The infield paints a much bleaker picture: Brandon Moss
and Josh Donaldson are a shaky duo on the corners (both of whom probably
overperformed last year), Eric Sogard is a journeyman at 2B, and the SS
duo of Scott Sizemore (missed all of 2012 with a torn ACL) and Jed
Lowrie (has been hurt each of the last three seasons) could be average
or better when healthy, which might be about 80 games between them. John
Jaso surprised for the Mariners at C last year, but might be a little
above-average with the bat and a little below-average with the arm for
Seattle's intradivision rivals. In the rotation, Brett Anderson pitches
like an ace when healthy but has only gone more than 19 games once in
his career (he did get back to the bigs just in time for the playoff
push last season). Young arms Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone could each
improve this year and make this a real plus front end. Dan Straily and
AJ Griffin - also young, making this one of the youngest rotations in
the majors - are a little bit away, but Griffin in particular has great
upside. As the Rangers and Angels age, this team's pitching core will
develop into something nasty, and a few tweaks to the infield personnel
would put these guys on the brink of a mini-dynasty.
Next year. They're still a season away.
Seattle Mariners - 74-88
This
team will have a tough time staying relevant, especially in this
division. This will be their first whole year in what seems like forever
without Ichiro, and their offensive woes should continue. Kyle Seager
is a possible breakout star at 3B, and could be really good for a really
long time (especially as he continues to learn 3B, which isn't his
natural position but was where he was needed due to the Chone Figgins
debacle). Brendan Ryan's a good defensive SS with no bat, and Dustin
Ackley could still end up a good 2B but was supposed to have been
further along by now. Justin Smoak played very poorly in his first 250
major league games and went berserk with the bat in his last 30; that
was likely a fluke, and he'll probably be a significant minus at 1B.
Michael Saunders is entering the prime of his career and could be a
20/20 guy, but Franklin Gutierrez and Michael Morse don't inspire any
confidence: take away Morse's one good year (3.1 WAR in 2011 for the
Nats) and he's put up just 1.5 WAR over parts of
seven seasons,
including 0.0 in 102 games last year. The Mariners obviously have a
perennial Cy Young candidate in Felix Hernandez, who has 99 wins (and
would have another 20 or 30 if he was playing on a league-average team)
and
is still only 26 (his birthday is next week). Ridiculous.
After him, though, it drops off fast: Hisashi Iwakuma, who could be
average-or-so playing his 2nd MLB season as a 32 year old with some
success in Japan, Joe Saunders, who can eat innings but won't ever
inspire fear, Blake Beavan, who has the lowest strikeout rate in the
major leagues, and Brandon Maurer, a 22-year-old, 6'5" righty with no
major league innings pitched. This team will allow more runs than league
average, and score fewer runs than league average. That puts their
record decidedly on the wrong side of .500.
Houston Astros - 54-108
The
Astros' first year in the AL will probably be their worst. There are a
couple guys who might develop into something exciting in a few years,
and a lot of guys who will be warm bodies and fill spots on the field
until the guys in the minors develop into guys who might develop into
something exciting in a few years. In the former group is Jose Altuve, a
22-year-old SS with lots of speed but little power and defensive skill,
Matt Dominguez, a 23-year-old 3B with a good glove and average power,
and Chris Carter, who at 26 has flashed big power but needs to cut down
on his lifetime K-rate of 33.2% (which has been pretty consistent over
his 3 major-league stints). Rick Ankiel's a good story but not much else
at this point in his career; Justin Maxwell will be average at best,
Jason Castro's got a good bat but is consistently hurt, and Brett
Wallace and Ronny Cedeno, who fill out the infield with significant
drawbacks. On the pitching side, there aren't any real bright spots
either; when your ace is a guy named Bud Norris, owner of a career 29-37
record and 4.41 ERA, you're not in for much success. Lucas Harrell
actually did all right in his first major league season last year, going
11-11 with a 3.76 ERA, but is unlikely to duplicate a .500 record with
this offense behind him. Philip Humber threw a perfect game and has done
nothing else at all in his career, and Erik Bedard joins him in the
reject bin that is the back-half of this rotation. Brad Peacock will get
some starts, which is cool because his name is Peacock, and not
cool because he has virtually no experience and will almost certainly
take some big lumps. There's just hardly any talent on this squad. We'll
see what they can do.
MVP Picks:
1. Miguel
Cabrera. Come on, he's coming off a Triple Crown season. Unlike Trout's
season, though, it wasn't actually inconsistent with our expectations
for him. And with the lineup he's got around him... yikes.
2.
Prince Fielder. I think the big guy's gonna also put up some huge
numbers for the Tigers this year. Pitchers will have their choice of
trying to get Miggy out or walking him and pitching to this guy. Playing
the Tigers is a no-win proposition.
3. Dustin Pedroia. Call it a hunch, but I think he gets back to his little-dude, world-killing ways this year.
4. Robinson Cano. Probably the most consistent hitter in this league (other than Cabrera, who's ridiculous).
5. Adam Jones. His year-27 campaign, he's been underrated his whole career but could absolutely explode now.
No Mike Trout? That's right! We'll see if I look foolish or
extremely foolish for that omission.
Cy Young:
1. Justin Verlander. Until he proves otherwise.
2. Yu Darvish. Was in this slot even before his near-perfection. Statisticians love him.
3. Chris Sale. If he can stay healthy, he should challenge for 20 wins.
4. David Price. Last year's winner should get another bump from TB's great defense.
5. Max Scherzer. Has the pieces, just needs to put them together.
Obviously, Felix is #6.
ROY: Jackie Bradley Jr.
Now time to go watch the Phillies lose!
