My 2013-14 NFL Picks, originally published on September 2, 2013
AFC EAST
Patriots: 11-5
Dolphins: 5-11
Jets: 5-11
Bills: 4-12
Tom
Brady doesn't have anyone to throw to? Tell that to Danny Amendola.
They should be able to carve through this division like a chainsaw
through butter. That's good, because this division plays the AFC North
and NFC South this year, likely the 3rd- and 2nd-strongest divisions in
the NFL overall. The Dolphins could very well snag a few and sneak up to
8-8 or 9-7, but I just don't think a Tannehill-led team is going
anywhere. The Jets are probably going to be a train wreck - I don't know
how they're going to score - but you never know with them. And, like
Megatron on the Lions, CJ Spiller will put up enormous numbers on a very
bad team. Don't expect RGIII-stuff from EJ Manuel.
AFC NORTH
Ravens: 12-4
Bengals: 11-5
Browns: 9-7
Steelers: 8-8
Every one of my predictions here could go horribly wrong. I mean, that's true of any prediction,
but especially so here. The Ravens lost a lot, but I still think
another year of Flacco-Rice-Harbaugh is enough to get them a first-round
bye. It all depends on whether Torrey Smith can beat defenses while
being the guy. I am an unabashed Andy Dalton fan (a convert, call me), and this team's offense is loaded.
Maybe the third-best in the AFC, with two legit WRs, TEs, and RBs. I
think this is the year the Browns finally sneak into the playoffs. Could
you imagine a week 17 matchup with the Steelers with a playoff spot on the line?
They have the tools. The Steelers don't have the tools, but they have
the coaching, the history, and - hopefully sooner rather than later - my
favorite Steeler, Heath Miller.
AFC South
Colts: 11-5
Texans: 8-8
Titans: 5-11
Jaguars: 5-11
This
is a weak division. I believe the Colts will make the playoffs again,
as Luck continues to grow (recall, I was an enormous fan of his before
last season). I was also an enormous fan of the Texans before last
season, but I'm officially off the bandwagon. Between Foster, Schaub,
and Johnson, I don't trust them one bit to stay healthy. I think they're
7-4 when the wheels fall off with consecutive losses to the Patriots,
Jags, Colts, and Broncos. Speaking of jumping off of bandwagons, I
jumped off the Jake Locker/Titans bandwagon when it exploded in a burst
of awfulness. Maybe the least exciting team in the league. The Jags
still have very little talent, but I think MJD puts up big numbers and
gets them to 5 wins, which isn't respectable but is better than last
year's embarrassing 2.
AFC West
Broncos: 13-3
Chiefs: 8-8
Raiders: 4-12
Chargers: 4-12
What
a bold prediction, the Broncos winning the AFC West. In fact, I have 5
of the same 6 playoff teams returning. That won't happen. But it does
seem like the AFC is far more stratified into talent levels than the
NFC. And the Broncos - now with Wes Welker - are at the top of that
heap. The Chiefs actually have a good system in place, and Andy Reid is -
is - the right coach for the job. Nothing fancy, but they'll
have something to build on. The Raiders continue to be terrible. And
call the Chargers my surprise bust. I think they basically have a bunch
of pieces that are ready to fall apart. They're like the Texans, except 2
years older.
NFC East
Cowboys: 9-7
Redskins: 9-7
Giants: 7-9
Eagles: 6-10
Who
knows how this one's going to go? Every division game is a coinflip.
Tony Romo's going to be polarizing, like always. But this defense is
good, and I think the offense clicks. The Redskins, who should change
their name, will be the same as you saw last year. We're all a little
anxious to see if RGIII is the same. If he is, and the defense has
improved even a little bit, 9 could be a worst-case scenario for them.
The Giants continue to be middling in most regards. Eli is just hoping
they sneak into the playoffs, because he's not been very good in the
regular season as of late. And the Eagles will be one of three things:
1) the most exciting playoff team in the NFL, 2) the most exciting
mediocre team in the NFL, or 3) the most exciting trainwreck in the NFL.
We'll see.
NFC North
Packers: 12-4
Vikings: 9-7
Bears: 7-9
Lions: 5-11
I
know, I know. What a bold statement. But each of these teams, to me,
seems clearly better than the teams below it. The Packers have the
player just rated by ESPN as the NFL's best, and if their defense can be
half-competent - or even less, depending on whether the running game
gets going - double digit wins should be no sweat. The Vikings surprised
last year, and I think they'll be a winning team for similar reasons
this year. Harvin's gone, it's true, but Ponder is underrated. I think
this is Cutler's last year. Forte will do everything he can to keep them
in it, but this team's going in the wrong direction. And the Lions could be an 8-8/borderline 9-7 team. But I don't see it. Megatron will be fun, though.
NFC South
Falcons: 12-4
Saints: 10-6
Buccaneers: 8-8
Panthers: 5-11
Ok,
I was stubborn when I picked the Falcons to be 8-8 last year. But I
can't be stubborn any longer - is this their Super Bowl year? Depends on
whether Steven Jackson has anything left. I'm pretty sure Jones and
White still do. The Saints have the tools, once again. Last year was a
pretty unprecedented interruption in team operations, so I'm basically
ignoring it. Their defense will be less bad, and their offense will be
too. Josh Freeman's about to start his 5th year for the Bucs, and I'm
still not sure he has an identity. Coach Schiano's trying to give the
team one, but he might get booted out of the league for his efforts. And
the Panthers fall victim to the Red Queen: they haven't been moving
forward, so they're falling behind.
NFC West
49ers: 12-4
Seahawks: 11-5
Rams: 6-10
Cardinals: 5-11
The
49ers remain the class of the NFC, despite some question marks at the
offensive skill positions. Kaepernick's got enough skills to go around.
The Seahawks probably have the best defense in the NFL, but I'm scared
that Russell Wilson may take a step back. Lynch should be there to pick
him up. The Rams are my second-favorite team in the NFL, so I always
give them about 3 or 4 more wins than their talent says they should get.
That hasn't changed this year, unfortunately for Jeff Fisher and co.
And I got the Cardinals right with 5-11 last year, so don't fix what's
not broken. Or, don't fix what is broken, if you're the Cards' front
office.
WILDCARD ROUND
Patriots over Browns
Bengals over Colts
Falcons over Saints
Seahawks over Cowboys
DIVISIONAL ROUND
Patriots over Ravens
Broncos over Bengals
49ers over Seahawks
Packers over Falcons
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
Broncos over Patriots
Packers over 49ers
SUPERBOWL XLVIII (Rematch of SB XXXII)
PACKERS over Broncos
So,
we'll see how terrible these picks look by week 6 when the Texans are
6-0, the Browns are 0-6, and Rodgers has gone down for the year. We'll
see.
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