Welcome back, everyone!
Sometimes, when you're doing stats, something just doesn't come out right. You see the results with your own eyes, and then you look at the numbers, and it just doesn't add up. You hope you've made a mistake in the calculation, but, sure enough, you haven't. You start thinking, "are there other tests I can do to make these numbers come out better?" At that point, you're lost.
Just give me a moment here. It looks like I might be admitting to a loss of all credibility, but that's the opposite of the truth. What I mean to say is this: Despite a 32-point (road) loss on Saturday, the Baylor Bears remain the #2 team in the Ruby Rankings.
How in the world can that be?
There are a lot of answers to that question, but here are the ones that are the most important, interesting, and illustrative of what goes into ranking systems such as my own.
1. The Oklahoma State Cowboys are very good. This doesn't excuse a huge loss by itself, but let's look at the seven other 1-loss teams and see whether the team that beat them was better or worse than Oklahoma State:
Missouri: South Carolina. Even.
Auburn: LSU. Not as good as OKST.
Clemson: FSU. Better than OKST.
Oklahoma State: West Virginia. Wayyy worse than OKST.
Michigan State: Notre Dame. Worse than OKST.
UCF: South Carolina. Split again.
Louisville: UCF. Worse than OKST.
Now, let's be honest: all but one of those games was a lot closer than 32 points. But in terms of pure team ranking (ignoring stats for the moment, like most ranking systems), the only difference between Baylor's loss and the other teams' losses is that Baylor's happened this past weekend.
2. Baylor was already being punished by my system - heavily, I might add - for playing a weak schedule. What that means, though, is that when Baylor plays a good team, their drop in statistics will be offset by a slight reduction in punishment based on strength of schedule. For reference, before Baylor started this 3-game kick against OU, TT, and OKST, their strength of schedule was 116th out of 126. It's now shot up all the way to 65th. Basically, the ratings are reflecting that even though Baylor's profile is worse now than it was, we're a lot more confident in it.
3. The teams around Baylor didn't help themselves. Listen, there's just no scenario in which an RPI/Stats system like mine is going to reward Alabama for beating up on Chattanooga. A game like that means absolutely nothing. Don't worry: Alabama will have plenty of opportunity to pass Baylor (and Ohio State, which jumped the Crimson Tide as well this week). If they can beat Auburn and Missouri, they'll get the #2 ranking they deserve. If they can't, well... we'll see.
4. Baylor's rating did drop dramatically; their rank didn't. This is a key distinction. My rating system is ultimately scaled loosely from 0 to 1000. Baylor's rating fell from 943 to 888 - that's a huge drop - but they had a big enough cushion that they remained, barely, ahead of everyone else. As mentioned above, Alabama dropped too, but has a much better chance that Baylor to climb back up.
Ultimately, my system tries to walk a fine line between being retrodictive and predictive; that is, I'm trying to capture both what a team's done up to this point and what they're likely to do in the future. What that means is that the system can't have a knee-jerk reaction to even a bad loss (or a great win), but it's also not going to perfectly capture the true "essence" of how good a team is, whatever that means. Do I think Baylor is better than Alabama right now? No. Do I think that, by the end of the season, Alabama will be well ahead of Baylor? Yes. But I don't think it's impossible that I'm wrong about that.
Now, onto the rankings!
The basics of the RUBY RANKINGS are as follows:
1) The 126 FBS teams are roughly scaled from 0 (a bottom-five, roughly winless team) to 1000 (a BCS Championship Favorite).
2) The ranking takes into account wins/losses, strength of schedule, and statistics.
3) The rankings are updated weekly.
WEEK 13 RUBY RANKINGS:
Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score (RANK Change from Last Week)
1. Florida State (11-0): 967 (=)
2. Baylor (9-1): 888 (=)
3. Ohio State (11-0): 875 (+2)
4. Alabama (11-0): 857 (-1)
5. Arizona State (9-2): 855 (+2)
6. Missouri (10-1): 843 (=)
7. Wisconsin (9-2): 813 (+4)
8. Auburn (10-1): 812 (+1)
9. Oregon (9-2): 804 (-5)
10. Clemson (10-1): 776 (-2)
11. Stanford (9-2): 770 (-1)
12. Oklahoma State (10-1): 765 (+7)
13. Michigan State (10-1): 753 (+1)
14. South Carolina (9-2): 725 (-1)
15. Oklahoma (9-2): 722 (+2)
16. UCF (9-1): 710 (+6)
17. USC (9-3): 709 (+6)
18. Northern Illinois (11-0): 709 (+7)
19. Virginia Tech (7-4): 706 (+1)
20. Louisville (10-1): 699 (-4)
21. UCLA (8-3): 696 (-6)
22. Washington (7-4): 695 (+4)
23. LSU (8-3): 694 (+5)
24. Texas A&M (8-3): 690 (-12)
25. Mississippi (7-4): 681 (-7)
26. Georgia (7-4): 665 (-2)
27. Notre Dame (8-3): 661 (+5)
28. East Carolina (9-2): 660 (-1)
29. Fresno State (10-0): 660 (=)
30. BYU (7-4): 657 (-9)
31. Georgia Tech (7-4): 633 (-1)
32. Duke (9-2): 617 (+4)
33. Arizona (7-4): 616 (+8)
34. Miami (FL) (8-3): 611 (=)
35. Michigan (7-4): 595 (-4)
36. Iowa (7-4): 595 (+4)
37. North Carolina (6-5): 593 (+12)
38. Nebraska (8-3): 592 (-3)
39. Texas (7-3): 592 (-2)
40. Houston (7-4): 580 (-7)
41. Minnesota (8-3): 562 (-3)
42. Ball State (9-2): 546 (+3)
43. Mississippi State (5-6): 545 (-1)
44. Marshall (8-3): 544 (+8)
45. Utah State (7-4): 536 (+8)
46. Texas Tech (7-4): 532 (+1)
47. Pittsburgh (6-5): 532 (+3)
48. North Texas (7-4): 528 (-9)
49. Toledo (7-4): 528 (-6)
50. Boise State (7-4): 526 (-6)
51. Bowling Green (8-3): 522 (+10)
52. Vanderbilt (7-4): 519 (+3)
53. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-2): 518 (-2)
54. Rice (8-3): 508 (-8)
55. Cincinnati (9-2): 508 (+14)
56. Boston College (7-4): 507 (+6)
57. Penn State (6-5): 505 (=)
58. Kansas State (6-5): 503 (-4)
59. Utah (4-7): 490 (-11)
60. Washington State (6-5): 480 (+8)
61. Buffalo (8-3): 474 (+4)
62. Navy (7-4): 472 (-3)
63. Indiana (4-7): 465 (+4)
64. Arkansas State (7-4): 457 (-4)
65. UTSA (6-5): 455 (+9)
66. Tennessee (4-7): 453 (-3)
67. Oregon State (6-5): 452 (-9)
68. Maryland (6-5): 447 (-4)
69. Florida Atlantic (5-6): 445 (+3)
70. Syracuse (5-6): 437 (-4)
71. Florida (4-7): 425 (-15)
72. Northwestern (4-7): 425 (-2)
73. Middle Tennessee (7-4): 425 (-2)
74. Western Kentucky (7-4): 422 (+6)
75. Tulane (7-4): 417 (=)
76. TCU (4-7): 379 (+1)
77. San Jose State (5-6): 363 (+2)
78. Rutgers (5-5): 361 (-2)
79. San Diego State (7-4): 359 (+7)
80. Memphis (3-7): 358 (+4)
81. UNLV (6-5): 351 (+7)
82. North Carolina State (3-8): 348 (+3)
83. Colorado State (6-6): 341 (-5)
84. Ohio (6-5): 336 (-11)
85. Wake Forest (4-7): 335 (-4)
86. Colorado (4-7): 333 (-3)
87. Illinois (4-7): 321 (+7)
88. West Virginia (4-7): 316 (-1)
89. Arkansas (3-8): 315 (-7)
90. Virginia (2-9): 314 (+3)
91. Nevada (4-7): 311 (+1)
92. SMU (5-5): 305 (+3)
93. Old Dominion (8-4): 286 (-4)
94. Troy (5-6): 283 (+3)
95. Louisiana-Monroe (5-6): 275 (-5)
96. Akron (4-7): 274 (+2)
97. South Alabama (4-6): 272 (+4)
98. Texas State (6-5): 269 (-7)
99. Tulsa (3-8): 253 (+4)
100. Wyoming (5-6): 242 (=)
101. Kent State (4-8): 239 (+7)
102. Kentucky (2-9): 232 (-3)
103. Kansas (3-8): 220 (-7)
104. Central Michigan (5-6): 214 (=)
105. Army (3-7): 207 (-3)
106. Iowa State (2-9): 196 (+4)
107. Purdue (1-10): 177 (-2)
108. UAB (2-9): 171 (+4)
109. California (1-11): 167 (-3)
110. South Florida (2-8): 161 (-3)
111. New Mexico (3-8): 158 (-2)
112. Hawai'i (0-11): 106 (+2)
113. Louisiana Tech (4-7): 101 (-2)
114. Air Force (2-9): 94 (+1)
115. Idaho (1-10): 93 (+1)
116. Temple (1-10): 79 (-3)
117. Connecticut (1-9): 71 (+1)
118. UTEP (2-9): 58 (-1)
119. New Mexico State (1-10): 35 (+1)
120. Western Michigan (1-10): 33 (+1)
121. Eastern Michigan (2-9): 12 (-2)
122. Massachusetts (1-10): -12 (=)
123. Southern Mississippi (0-11): -23 (=)
124. Georgia State (0-11): -65 (+1)
125. Florida International (1-10): -75 (-1)
126. Miami (OH) (0-11): -120 (=)
CONFERENCE POWER RANKINGS:
1. SEC: 604
2. PAC 12: 589
3. ACC: 559
4. BIG 10: 557
5. BIG 12: 511
6. AAC: 383
7. INDEPENDENTS: 344
8. MOUNTAIN WEST: 337
9. C-USA: 319
10. SUN BELT: 304
11. MAC: 289
Moving On Up:
#18 Northern Illinois. Despite having not lost a regular season game since September 1st of last year, the Huskies had been languishing down in the high 30s all season. Even though their stats were there, and no one questioned whether Jordan Lynch was a legitimate threat, they hadn't really proven themselves; their best wins were over #36 Iowa (by 3) and #96 Akron (by only 7). So, an observer - or a ratings system - could be skeptical of both this squad and a ridiculous BCS system that put them anywhere near the top 20. This squad finally encountered some tests over the last two weeks, and proved up to the task, beating #42 Ball State by 21 and #49 Toledo by 18. Their strength-of-schedule is still 7th-worst in the country, but they've at least done what has been asked of them. They won't be taking down any SEC Champions, but at least now we can be pretty sure they're better than a .500 SEC squad.
#37 North Carolina. In the inaugural Ruby Rankings of the year, UNC was sitting at 77th, with a 1-5 record (they were, at least, the highest-ranked 1-win team). Since then, they've rattled off five in a row, with wins over solid #56 Boston College and #47 Pittsburgh squads, the former of which looks a lot better now than they did when these guys played (BC itself has won four straight). The Tar Heels dropped an 80-spot on FBS newcomer #93 Old Dominion this past week to ensure bowl eligibility in what looked at one point like a lost season. If they can beat #32 Duke next week, they'll be among the teams you'd least like to face in a bowl game.
Sliding On Down:
#24 Texas A&M. These guys didn't just get beaten by #23 LSU. They got smacked by LSU. The Tigers had only lost back-to-back games once under Les Miles, and they kept it that way, dropping the Aggies a whopping 12 spots. Take note that spots 16 through 24 are very tightly bunched, and a couple different bounces could've seen A&M settling in the mid-teens. An 8-4 campaign would be a failure for Texas A&M, but they'll need to beat #6 Missouri to keep that from happening.
#71 Florida. Boy, did the steam go out of this weekend's match-up between the Gators and #1 Florida State with the latter's loss to FCS foe Georgia Southern. Listen. It was going to be over by the end of the first quarter, but without Florida having a bowl bid to ostensibly play for, it might be over by the end of the first play. This caps off the worst 6-game stretch, I think it's safe to say, in Florida Gators history. Now, Florida's still got an SEC defense, allowing only 19.6 PPG (good for 16th in the nation, right between Missouri and #16 UCF), but their offense has scored an abysmal 19.9 PPG (good for 15th-worst in the nation, right between #113 Louisiana Tech and #121 Eastern Michigan). Yikes. That. Is. Embarrassing.
#84 Ohio. The Bobcats have a nagging feeling that they've been here before. Last year, the Bobcats were 7-0 and limped to the finish, dropping 4 of their last 5 to finish 8-4. This year, the Bobcats were at least a respectable 6-2, but have lost their last 3 games (to #61 Buffalo, #51 Bowling Green, and most recently #101 Kent State) by a combined 107 points. This has dropped Ohio a full 26 spots in the ranking, and if they lose Friday's tilt with #122 Massachusetts, they'll be among the teams you'd most like to face in a bowl game.
Monday, November 25, 2013
RUBY RANKINGS Week 12: NCAA FBS Football Rankings!!!
Hey everybody! The Week 12 Rankings are up, and not too much has changed. The Top 10 has stayed the same, but there's been some jostling. Baylor has jumped Alabama for the #2 spot, but Florida State remains the clear leader. Oregon and Ohio State continue to dance around the #4 spot, and Stanford "plummets" after the loss to USC. Interestingly enough, the bottom 25 teams didn't change either. There's a big gap after 101.
The basics of the RUBY RANKINGS are as follows:
1) The 126 FBS teams are roughly scaled from 0 (a bottom-five, roughly winless team) to 1000 (a BCS Championship Favorite).
2) The ranking takes into account wins/losses, strength of schedule, and statistics.
3) The rankings are updated weekly.
WEEK 12 RUBY RANKINGS:
Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score (RANK Change from Last Week)
1. Florida State (10-0): 1005 (=)
2. Baylor (9-0): 943 (+1)
3. Alabama (10-0): 910 (-1)
4. Oregon (9-1): 886 (+1)
5. Ohio State (10-0): 883 (-1)
6. Missouri (9-1): 839 (+1)
7. Arizona State (8-2): 837 (+1)
8. Clemson (9-1): 817 (+1)
9. Auburn (10-1): 815 (+1)
10. Stanford (8-2): 795 (-4)
11. Wisconsin (8-2): 783 (=)
12. Texas A&M (8-2): 751 (+3)
13. South Carolina (8-2): 737 (=)
14. Michigan State (9-1): 737 (+4)
15. UCLA (8-2): 731 (+1)
16. Louisville (9-1): 715 (+4)
17. Oklahoma (8-2): 706 (=)
18. Mississippi (7-3): 705 (+6)
19. Oklahoma State (9-1): 702 (+7)
20. Virginia Tech (7-4): 695 (-8)
21. BYU (7-3): 693 (-7)
22. UCF (8-1): 690 (-3)
23. USC (8-3): 688 (+7)
24. Georgia (6-4): 664 (-1)
25. Northern Illinois (10-0): 661 (+12)
26. Washington (6-4): 660 (-5)
27. East Carolina (8-2): 649 (+4)
28. LSU (7-3): 643 (+1)
29. Fresno State (9-0): 642 (+3)
30. Georgia Tech (6-4): 640 (-8)
31. Michigan (7-3): 633 (+2)
32. Notre Dame (7-3): 631 (+2)
33. Houston (7-3): 628 (-5)
34. Miami (FL) (7-3): 626 (-9)
35. Nebraska (7-3): 613 (-8)
36. Duke (8-2): 602 (+4)
37. Texas (7-3): 600 (-2)
38. Minnesota (8-2): 596 (-2)
39. North Texas (7-3): 578 (=)
40. Iowa (6-4): 556 (+4)
41. Arizona (6-4): 555 (-3)
42. Mississippi State (4-6): 553 (+5)
43. Toledo (7-3): 551 (+11)
44. Boise State (7-3): 548 (+11)
45. Ball State (9-2): 546 (+1)
46. Rice (7-3): 543 (+12)
47. Texas Tech (7-4): 536 (-4)
48. Utah (4-6): 535 (-6)
49. North Carolina (5-5): 531 (+2)
50. Pittsburgh (5-5): 525 (-9)
51. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-2): 524 (-6)
52. Marshall (7-3): 523 (-3)
53. Utah State (6-4): 521 (-3)
54. Kansas State (6-4): 519 (-1)
55. Vanderbilt (6-4): 516 (+1)
56. Florida (4-6): 515 (-8)
57. Penn State (6-4): 506 (+3)
58. Oregon State (6-4): 504 (-6)
59. Navy (6-4): 489 (+4)
60. Arkansas State (6-4): 489 (+7)
61. Bowling Green (7-3): 485 (+12)
62. Boston College (6-4): 483 (+3)
63. Tennessee (4-6): 480 (-2)
64. Maryland (6-4): 476 (+4)
65. Buffalo (7-3): 472 (-8)
66. Syracuse (5-5): 460 (-4)
67. Indiana (4-6): 454 (-8)
68. Washington State (5-5): 454 (+2)
69. Cincinnati (8-2): 451 (+9)
70. Northwestern (4-6): 449 (-6)
71. Middle Tennessee (6-4): 422 (=)
72. Florida Atlantic (4-6): 420 (+2)
73. Ohio (6-4): 402 (-7)
74. UTSA (5-5): 394 (+1)
75. Tulane (6-4): 384 (+2)
76. Rutgers (5-4): 371 (-4)
77. TCU (4-7): 370 (-1)
78. Colorado State (6-5): 364 (+11)
79. San Jose State (5-5): 360 (-10)
80. Western Kentucky (6-4): 359 (=)
81. Wake Forest (4-6): 352 (+2)
82. Arkansas (3-7): 351 (+2)
83. Colorado (4-6): 350 (+3)
84. Memphis (3-6): 350 (+8)
85. North Carolina State (3-7): 346 (-4)
86. San Diego State (6-4): 334 (-4)
87. West Virginia (4-7): 331 (-8)
88. UNLV (5-5): 326 (+1)
89. Old Dominion (8-3): 320 (-1)
90. Louisiana-Monroe (5-5): 320 (=)
91. Texas State (6-4): 319 (-6)
92. Nevada (4-7): 319 (+8)
93. Virginia (2-8): 318 (-2)
94. Illinois (3-7): 306 (=)
95. SMU (4-5): 288 (+3)
96. Kansas (3-7): 285 (+5)
97. Troy (5-6): 278 (-2)
98. Akron (4-7): 272 (+1)
99. Kentucky (2-8): 259 (-2)
100. Wyoming (4-6): 258 (-7)
101. South Alabama (3-6): 258 (-5)
102. Army (3-7): 213 (=)
103. Tulsa (2-8): 210 (+3)
104. Central Michigan (4-6): 188 (-1)
105. Purdue (1-9): 169 (+2)
106. California (1-10): 168 (-2)
107. South Florida (2-7): 159 (-2)
108. Kent State (3-8): 154 (+3)
109. New Mexico (3-7): 150 (-1)
110. Iowa State (1-9): 139 (=)
111. Louisiana Tech (4-6): 135 (-2)
112. UAB (2-8): 124 (=)
113. Temple (1-9): 108 (+2)
114. Hawai'i (0-10): 102 (+2)
115. Air Force (2-8): 97 (-2)
116. Idaho (1-9): 96 (-2)
117. UTEP (2-8): 89 (+2)
118. Connecticut (0-9): 47 (-1)
119. Eastern Michigan (2-8): 45 (-1)
120. New Mexico State (1-9): 27 (=)
121. Western Michigan (1-10): 26 (=)
122. Massachusetts (1-9): -1 (+1)
123. Southern Mississippi (0-10): -19 (-1)
124. Florida International (1-9): -79 (=)
125. Georgia State (0-10): -88 (=)
126. Miami (OH) (0-10): -140 (=)
Because the update is so late this week, you'll have to wait until WEEK 13 for CLEVER ANALYSIS.
The basics of the RUBY RANKINGS are as follows:
1) The 126 FBS teams are roughly scaled from 0 (a bottom-five, roughly winless team) to 1000 (a BCS Championship Favorite).
2) The ranking takes into account wins/losses, strength of schedule, and statistics.
3) The rankings are updated weekly.
WEEK 12 RUBY RANKINGS:
Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score (RANK Change from Last Week)
1. Florida State (10-0): 1005 (=)
2. Baylor (9-0): 943 (+1)
3. Alabama (10-0): 910 (-1)
4. Oregon (9-1): 886 (+1)
5. Ohio State (10-0): 883 (-1)
6. Missouri (9-1): 839 (+1)
7. Arizona State (8-2): 837 (+1)
8. Clemson (9-1): 817 (+1)
9. Auburn (10-1): 815 (+1)
10. Stanford (8-2): 795 (-4)
11. Wisconsin (8-2): 783 (=)
12. Texas A&M (8-2): 751 (+3)
13. South Carolina (8-2): 737 (=)
14. Michigan State (9-1): 737 (+4)
15. UCLA (8-2): 731 (+1)
16. Louisville (9-1): 715 (+4)
17. Oklahoma (8-2): 706 (=)
18. Mississippi (7-3): 705 (+6)
19. Oklahoma State (9-1): 702 (+7)
20. Virginia Tech (7-4): 695 (-8)
21. BYU (7-3): 693 (-7)
22. UCF (8-1): 690 (-3)
23. USC (8-3): 688 (+7)
24. Georgia (6-4): 664 (-1)
25. Northern Illinois (10-0): 661 (+12)
26. Washington (6-4): 660 (-5)
27. East Carolina (8-2): 649 (+4)
28. LSU (7-3): 643 (+1)
29. Fresno State (9-0): 642 (+3)
30. Georgia Tech (6-4): 640 (-8)
31. Michigan (7-3): 633 (+2)
32. Notre Dame (7-3): 631 (+2)
33. Houston (7-3): 628 (-5)
34. Miami (FL) (7-3): 626 (-9)
35. Nebraska (7-3): 613 (-8)
36. Duke (8-2): 602 (+4)
37. Texas (7-3): 600 (-2)
38. Minnesota (8-2): 596 (-2)
39. North Texas (7-3): 578 (=)
40. Iowa (6-4): 556 (+4)
41. Arizona (6-4): 555 (-3)
42. Mississippi State (4-6): 553 (+5)
43. Toledo (7-3): 551 (+11)
44. Boise State (7-3): 548 (+11)
45. Ball State (9-2): 546 (+1)
46. Rice (7-3): 543 (+12)
47. Texas Tech (7-4): 536 (-4)
48. Utah (4-6): 535 (-6)
49. North Carolina (5-5): 531 (+2)
50. Pittsburgh (5-5): 525 (-9)
51. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-2): 524 (-6)
52. Marshall (7-3): 523 (-3)
53. Utah State (6-4): 521 (-3)
54. Kansas State (6-4): 519 (-1)
55. Vanderbilt (6-4): 516 (+1)
56. Florida (4-6): 515 (-8)
57. Penn State (6-4): 506 (+3)
58. Oregon State (6-4): 504 (-6)
59. Navy (6-4): 489 (+4)
60. Arkansas State (6-4): 489 (+7)
61. Bowling Green (7-3): 485 (+12)
62. Boston College (6-4): 483 (+3)
63. Tennessee (4-6): 480 (-2)
64. Maryland (6-4): 476 (+4)
65. Buffalo (7-3): 472 (-8)
66. Syracuse (5-5): 460 (-4)
67. Indiana (4-6): 454 (-8)
68. Washington State (5-5): 454 (+2)
69. Cincinnati (8-2): 451 (+9)
70. Northwestern (4-6): 449 (-6)
71. Middle Tennessee (6-4): 422 (=)
72. Florida Atlantic (4-6): 420 (+2)
73. Ohio (6-4): 402 (-7)
74. UTSA (5-5): 394 (+1)
75. Tulane (6-4): 384 (+2)
76. Rutgers (5-4): 371 (-4)
77. TCU (4-7): 370 (-1)
78. Colorado State (6-5): 364 (+11)
79. San Jose State (5-5): 360 (-10)
80. Western Kentucky (6-4): 359 (=)
81. Wake Forest (4-6): 352 (+2)
82. Arkansas (3-7): 351 (+2)
83. Colorado (4-6): 350 (+3)
84. Memphis (3-6): 350 (+8)
85. North Carolina State (3-7): 346 (-4)
86. San Diego State (6-4): 334 (-4)
87. West Virginia (4-7): 331 (-8)
88. UNLV (5-5): 326 (+1)
89. Old Dominion (8-3): 320 (-1)
90. Louisiana-Monroe (5-5): 320 (=)
91. Texas State (6-4): 319 (-6)
92. Nevada (4-7): 319 (+8)
93. Virginia (2-8): 318 (-2)
94. Illinois (3-7): 306 (=)
95. SMU (4-5): 288 (+3)
96. Kansas (3-7): 285 (+5)
97. Troy (5-6): 278 (-2)
98. Akron (4-7): 272 (+1)
99. Kentucky (2-8): 259 (-2)
100. Wyoming (4-6): 258 (-7)
101. South Alabama (3-6): 258 (-5)
102. Army (3-7): 213 (=)
103. Tulsa (2-8): 210 (+3)
104. Central Michigan (4-6): 188 (-1)
105. Purdue (1-9): 169 (+2)
106. California (1-10): 168 (-2)
107. South Florida (2-7): 159 (-2)
108. Kent State (3-8): 154 (+3)
109. New Mexico (3-7): 150 (-1)
110. Iowa State (1-9): 139 (=)
111. Louisiana Tech (4-6): 135 (-2)
112. UAB (2-8): 124 (=)
113. Temple (1-9): 108 (+2)
114. Hawai'i (0-10): 102 (+2)
115. Air Force (2-8): 97 (-2)
116. Idaho (1-9): 96 (-2)
117. UTEP (2-8): 89 (+2)
118. Connecticut (0-9): 47 (-1)
119. Eastern Michigan (2-8): 45 (-1)
120. New Mexico State (1-9): 27 (=)
121. Western Michigan (1-10): 26 (=)
122. Massachusetts (1-9): -1 (+1)
123. Southern Mississippi (0-10): -19 (-1)
124. Florida International (1-9): -79 (=)
125. Georgia State (0-10): -88 (=)
126. Miami (OH) (0-10): -140 (=)
Because the update is so late this week, you'll have to wait until WEEK 13 for CLEVER ANALYSIS.
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
RUBY RANKINGS Week 11: NCAA FBS College Football Rankings!
Fake reason I didn't update/publish these until today, as opposed to the usual Monday-after:
The results of the weekend were so enormous as to demand an extra 2 days of attention and calculation.
Real reason: I was tired. I have "lots" of schoolwork. And it wasn't convenient until today.
All of that being said, there were obviously some big results this past week, with Alabama sticking it to LSU, Stanford dashing Oregon's dreams for the second year in a row (it's the FBS version of Shippensburg-Bloomsburg!), and Baylor opening a lot of eyes against the Sooners.
Before you look at this week's Top 10, take a look at last week's HERE and try to predict for yourself.
The basics of the RUBY RANKINGS are as follows:
1) The 126 FBS teams are roughly scaled from 0 (a bottom-five, roughly winless team) to 1000 (a BCS Championship Favorite).
2) The ranking takes into account wins/losses, strength of schedule, and statistics.
3) The rankings are updated weekly.
WEEK 11 RUBY RANKINGS:
Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score (RANK Change from Last Week)
1. Florida State (9-0): 999 (=)
2. Alabama (9-0): 928 (+1)
3. Baylor (8-0): 922 (+2)
4. Ohio State (9-0): 900 (=)
5. Oregon (8-1): 882 (-3)
6. Stanford (8-1): 854 (+2)
7. Missouri (9-1): 839 (-1)
8. Arizona State (7-2): 838 (-1)
9. Clemson (8-1): 798 (=)
10. Auburn (9-1): 787 (+2)
11. Wisconsin (7-2): 748 (+9)
12. Virginia Tech (7-3): 745 (+19)
13. South Carolina (7-2): 738 (+2)
14. BYU (6-3): 733 (-3)
15. Texas A&M (8-2): 732 (+1)
16. UCLA (7-2): 726 (+3)
17. Oklahoma (7-2): 720 (-7)
18. Michigan State (8-1): 711 (=)
19. UCF (7-1): 710 (+11)
20. Louisville (8-1): 707 (-6)
21. Washington (6-3): 701 (+2)
22. Georgia Tech (6-3): 684 (+2)
23. Georgia (6-3): 682 (-6)
24. Mississippi (6-3): 677 (-2)
25. Miami (FL) (7-2): 672 (-12)
26. Oklahoma State (8-1): 671 (+1)
27. Nebraska (7-2): 654 (+10)
28. Houston (7-2): 653 (+1)
29. LSU (7-3): 648 (-3)
30. USC (7-3): 647 (-5)
31. East Carolina (7-2): 639 (+5)
32. Fresno State (9-0): 639 (+6)
33. Michigan (6-3): 635 (-5)
34. Notre Dame (7-3): 627 (-13)
35. Texas (7-2): 624 (-2)
36. Minnesota (8-2): 611 (+4)
37. Northern Illinois (9-0): 605 (+2)
38. Arizona (6-3): 604 (-6)
39. North Texas (7-3): 583 (+3)
40. Duke (7-2): 570 (+4)
41. Pittsburgh (5-4): 569 (+17)
42. Utah (4-5): 567 (-1)
43. Texas Tech (7-3): 555 (-9)
44. Iowa (6-4): 554 (+1)
45. Louisiana-Lafayette (7-2): 546 (+1)
46. Ball State (9-1): 545 (+2)
47. Mississippi State (4-5): 540 (-4)
48. Florida (4-5): 538 (-13)
49. Marshall (6-3): 531 (+5)
50. Utah State (6-4): 523 (-3)
51. North Carolina (4-5): 522 (+4)
52. Oregon State (6-3): 516 (-3)
53. Kansas State (5-4): 516 (+12)
54. Toledo (7-3): 512 (-3)
55. Boise State (6-3): 509 (-5)
56. Vanderbilt (5-4): 509 (+5)
57. Buffalo (7-3): 504 (+11)
58. Rice (6-3): 496 (-2)
59. Indiana (4-5): 496 (+1)
60. Penn State (5-4): 495 (-7)
61. Tennessee (4-6): 487 (-9)
62. Syracuse (5-4): 477 (+5)
63. Navy (5-4): 459 (-1)
64. Northwestern (4-5): 459 (+2)
65. Boston College (5-4): 455 (-2)
66. Ohio (6-4): 451 (-7)
67. Arkansas State (5-4): 451 (+8)
68. Maryland (5-4): 438 (-11)
69. San Jose State (5-4): 418 (-5)
70. Washington State (4-5): 415 (=)
71. Middle Tennessee (6-4): 410 (+10)
72. Rutgers (5-3): 409 (-3)
73. Bowling Green (7-3): 408 (+1)
74. Florida Atlantic (3-6): 406 (-2)
75. UTSA (5-5): 394 (+9)
76. TCU (4-6): 389 (-5)
77. Tulane (6-4): 389 (+2)
78. Cincinnati (7-2): 388 (+4)
79. West Virginia (4-6): 373 (-2)
80. Western Kentucky (6-4): 364 (+3)
81. North Carolina State (3-6): 364 (+7)
82. San Diego State (5-4): 361 (+10)
83. Wake Forest (4-6): 355 (-6)
84. Arkansas (3-7): 355 (+1)
85. Texas State (6-3): 347 (-1)
86. Colorado (3-6): 345 (-13)
87. UNLV (5-5): 328 (=)
88. Old Dominion (7-3): 328 (+5)
89. Colorado State (5-5): 327 (+5)
90. Louisiana-Monroe (5-5): 323 (-12)
91. Virginia (2-8): 320 (-11)
92. Memphis (2-6): 313 (-1)
93. Wyoming (4-5): 303 (-3)
94. Illinois (3-6): 301 (-5)
95. Troy (5-5): 298 (+2)
96. South Alabama (3-5): 286 (=)
97. Kentucky (2-7): 283 (+3)
98. SMU (3-5): 275 (=)
99. Akron (3-7): 269 (=)
100. Nevada (3-7): 255 (-5)
101. Kansas (2-7): 250 (=)
102. Army (3-7): 225 (=)
103. Central Michigan (3-6): 192 (=)
104. California (1-9): 191 (+2)
105. South Florida (2-6): 190 (-1)
106. Tulsa (2-7): 190 (+1)
107. Purdue (1-8): 185 (-2)
108. New Mexico (3-6): 180 (+4)
109. Louisiana Tech (4-5): 151 (+4)
110. Iowa State (1-8): 145 (-2)
111. Kent State (2-8): 128 (-1)
112. UAB (2-7): 123 (-3)
113. Air Force (2-8): 93 (-2)
114. Idaho (1-9): 87 (+1)
115. Temple (1-8): 78 (-1)
116. Hawai'i (0-9): 71 (=)
117. Connecticut (0-8): 59 (+1)
118. Eastern Michigan (2-8): 57 (-1)
119. UTEP (1-8): 38 (+1)
120. New Mexico State (1-9): 22 (+2)
121. Western Michigan (1-9): 16 (=)
122. Southern Mississippi (0-9): 10 (-3)
123. Massachusetts (1-8): -14 (+1)
124. Florida International (1-8): -51 (-1)
125. Georgia State (0-9): -114 (=)
126. Miami (OH) (0-9): -126 (=)
BIG MOVERS AND OTHER NOTES
Obviously, the stories of the week really took place on Thursday. One would not be silly to question how #5 Oregon could still be ranked ahead of #6 Stanford when the Cardinal just manhandled the Ducks for the second consecutive year. It is true that, match-up-wise, Stanford would likely win more than 50% of their games against the Ducks over the long stretch. But these rankings are supposed to reflect general ability. Think of it this way: Oregon's worst game this year was a loss to the #6 team in the country. Stanford's worst game this year was a loss to the #42 team in the country (Utah). Stanford's high might be higher than Oregon, but their low is lower too. The numbers punch out so that they're close enough the difference isn't particularly meaningful anyway.
On the other side of the coin, #3 Baylor impressed, hurdling #4 Ohio State and pulling virtually even with #2 Alabama. I was not surprised that the Bears put up 41; what shocked me was that they held Oklahoma to 12. Note that #57 Buffalo, #79 West Virginia, #53 Kansas State, and #101 Kansas all scored more than that against Baylor. Those were, for the most part, though, games in which Baylor had their scrubs in at halftime. They knew the game on Thursday night was one of the most important in program history, and they dominated every phase of the game. So, say it with me, slowly: The Baylor Bears... are legitimate... BCS Title Contenders. Wow.
#12 Virginia Tech can't figure out what they're doing. They lose to #65 Boston College, dropping 14 spots, and then maul #25 Miami (FL) to jump back up 19 spots. The win itself shouldn't have done that, but VaTech got the kind of boost that is pretty unique to an RPI system: every team on their schedule-to-date that played last week won, including Alabama over #29 LSU and a surprising #41 Pittsburgh over #34 Notre Dame.
#19 UCF also jumped way up with their win in the de facto AAC championship playoff, leap-frogging #20 Louisville, who underwhelmed in their win over #117 Connecticut. The Knights will be a bit out of place in a BCS game, but not incredibly so. I presume they've already clinched such a berth, because the only realistic way they can lose it to Louisville is if the Knights lose two of four against #115 Temple, #72 Rutgers, #105 South Florida, and #98 SMU (lord, the AAC is bad).
Watch out, here comes: #53 Kansas State. The Wildcats have won 3 in a row to get on the right side of .500, and should finish the season 7-5, with #76 TCU at home, #17 Oklahoma at home, and #101 Kansas on the road. After a season-opening loss to FCS squad North Dakota State, an FCS Championship contender that was ranked 30th of all teams in the country, just between Utah and Texas, by Jeff Sagarin's most recent rankings, the Wildcats have cobbled together a respectable season for having lost Colin Klein to graduation, which might have been as big a loss of total offense due to a single graduation in a long, long time.
Watch out, there goes: #68 Maryland. The Terps started 4-0, which got them a little number next to their name. Then, #1 Florida State beat them 63-0, the worst loss ever by a team with a little number next to its name. Since then, their only win is over lowly #91 Virginia, 27-26 at home. After the 4-0 start, the most likely finish would be weak bowl eligibility at 6-6. This presumes a win out of three games against Virginia Tech, Boston College, and #81 North Carolina State; at this point, there is no guarantee of such.
TOP/BOTTOM 10 RPI PROFILES:
1. Stanford
2. Alabama
3. Florida State
4. Arizona State
5. Missouri
6. Auburn
7. Virginia Tech
8. South Carolina
9. Ohio State
10. Oklahoma
...
117. Connecticut
118. Temple
119. Air Force
120. UTEP
121. Western Michigan
122. Florida International
123. Louisiana Tech
124. Massachusetts
125. Miami (OH)
126. Georgia State
TOP/BOTTOM 10 STATISTICAL PROFILES
1. Baylor
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Louisville
6. Alabama
7. Wisconsin
8. Michigan State
9. Missouri
10. Northern Illinois
...
117. Western Michigan
118. Georgia State
119. Massachusetts
120. Eastern Michigan
121. New Mexico State
122. Idaho
123. Miami (OH)
124. Purdue
125. Florida International
126. Southern Mississippi
The results of the weekend were so enormous as to demand an extra 2 days of attention and calculation.
Real reason: I was tired. I have "lots" of schoolwork. And it wasn't convenient until today.
All of that being said, there were obviously some big results this past week, with Alabama sticking it to LSU, Stanford dashing Oregon's dreams for the second year in a row (it's the FBS version of Shippensburg-Bloomsburg!), and Baylor opening a lot of eyes against the Sooners.
Before you look at this week's Top 10, take a look at last week's HERE and try to predict for yourself.
The basics of the RUBY RANKINGS are as follows:
1) The 126 FBS teams are roughly scaled from 0 (a bottom-five, roughly winless team) to 1000 (a BCS Championship Favorite).
2) The ranking takes into account wins/losses, strength of schedule, and statistics.
3) The rankings are updated weekly.
WEEK 11 RUBY RANKINGS:
Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score (RANK Change from Last Week)
1. Florida State (9-0): 999 (=)
2. Alabama (9-0): 928 (+1)
3. Baylor (8-0): 922 (+2)
4. Ohio State (9-0): 900 (=)
5. Oregon (8-1): 882 (-3)
6. Stanford (8-1): 854 (+2)
7. Missouri (9-1): 839 (-1)
8. Arizona State (7-2): 838 (-1)
9. Clemson (8-1): 798 (=)
10. Auburn (9-1): 787 (+2)
11. Wisconsin (7-2): 748 (+9)
12. Virginia Tech (7-3): 745 (+19)
13. South Carolina (7-2): 738 (+2)
14. BYU (6-3): 733 (-3)
15. Texas A&M (8-2): 732 (+1)
16. UCLA (7-2): 726 (+3)
17. Oklahoma (7-2): 720 (-7)
18. Michigan State (8-1): 711 (=)
19. UCF (7-1): 710 (+11)
20. Louisville (8-1): 707 (-6)
21. Washington (6-3): 701 (+2)
22. Georgia Tech (6-3): 684 (+2)
23. Georgia (6-3): 682 (-6)
24. Mississippi (6-3): 677 (-2)
25. Miami (FL) (7-2): 672 (-12)
26. Oklahoma State (8-1): 671 (+1)
27. Nebraska (7-2): 654 (+10)
28. Houston (7-2): 653 (+1)
29. LSU (7-3): 648 (-3)
30. USC (7-3): 647 (-5)
31. East Carolina (7-2): 639 (+5)
32. Fresno State (9-0): 639 (+6)
33. Michigan (6-3): 635 (-5)
34. Notre Dame (7-3): 627 (-13)
35. Texas (7-2): 624 (-2)
36. Minnesota (8-2): 611 (+4)
37. Northern Illinois (9-0): 605 (+2)
38. Arizona (6-3): 604 (-6)
39. North Texas (7-3): 583 (+3)
40. Duke (7-2): 570 (+4)
41. Pittsburgh (5-4): 569 (+17)
42. Utah (4-5): 567 (-1)
43. Texas Tech (7-3): 555 (-9)
44. Iowa (6-4): 554 (+1)
45. Louisiana-Lafayette (7-2): 546 (+1)
46. Ball State (9-1): 545 (+2)
47. Mississippi State (4-5): 540 (-4)
48. Florida (4-5): 538 (-13)
49. Marshall (6-3): 531 (+5)
50. Utah State (6-4): 523 (-3)
51. North Carolina (4-5): 522 (+4)
52. Oregon State (6-3): 516 (-3)
53. Kansas State (5-4): 516 (+12)
54. Toledo (7-3): 512 (-3)
55. Boise State (6-3): 509 (-5)
56. Vanderbilt (5-4): 509 (+5)
57. Buffalo (7-3): 504 (+11)
58. Rice (6-3): 496 (-2)
59. Indiana (4-5): 496 (+1)
60. Penn State (5-4): 495 (-7)
61. Tennessee (4-6): 487 (-9)
62. Syracuse (5-4): 477 (+5)
63. Navy (5-4): 459 (-1)
64. Northwestern (4-5): 459 (+2)
65. Boston College (5-4): 455 (-2)
66. Ohio (6-4): 451 (-7)
67. Arkansas State (5-4): 451 (+8)
68. Maryland (5-4): 438 (-11)
69. San Jose State (5-4): 418 (-5)
70. Washington State (4-5): 415 (=)
71. Middle Tennessee (6-4): 410 (+10)
72. Rutgers (5-3): 409 (-3)
73. Bowling Green (7-3): 408 (+1)
74. Florida Atlantic (3-6): 406 (-2)
75. UTSA (5-5): 394 (+9)
76. TCU (4-6): 389 (-5)
77. Tulane (6-4): 389 (+2)
78. Cincinnati (7-2): 388 (+4)
79. West Virginia (4-6): 373 (-2)
80. Western Kentucky (6-4): 364 (+3)
81. North Carolina State (3-6): 364 (+7)
82. San Diego State (5-4): 361 (+10)
83. Wake Forest (4-6): 355 (-6)
84. Arkansas (3-7): 355 (+1)
85. Texas State (6-3): 347 (-1)
86. Colorado (3-6): 345 (-13)
87. UNLV (5-5): 328 (=)
88. Old Dominion (7-3): 328 (+5)
89. Colorado State (5-5): 327 (+5)
90. Louisiana-Monroe (5-5): 323 (-12)
91. Virginia (2-8): 320 (-11)
92. Memphis (2-6): 313 (-1)
93. Wyoming (4-5): 303 (-3)
94. Illinois (3-6): 301 (-5)
95. Troy (5-5): 298 (+2)
96. South Alabama (3-5): 286 (=)
97. Kentucky (2-7): 283 (+3)
98. SMU (3-5): 275 (=)
99. Akron (3-7): 269 (=)
100. Nevada (3-7): 255 (-5)
101. Kansas (2-7): 250 (=)
102. Army (3-7): 225 (=)
103. Central Michigan (3-6): 192 (=)
104. California (1-9): 191 (+2)
105. South Florida (2-6): 190 (-1)
106. Tulsa (2-7): 190 (+1)
107. Purdue (1-8): 185 (-2)
108. New Mexico (3-6): 180 (+4)
109. Louisiana Tech (4-5): 151 (+4)
110. Iowa State (1-8): 145 (-2)
111. Kent State (2-8): 128 (-1)
112. UAB (2-7): 123 (-3)
113. Air Force (2-8): 93 (-2)
114. Idaho (1-9): 87 (+1)
115. Temple (1-8): 78 (-1)
116. Hawai'i (0-9): 71 (=)
117. Connecticut (0-8): 59 (+1)
118. Eastern Michigan (2-8): 57 (-1)
119. UTEP (1-8): 38 (+1)
120. New Mexico State (1-9): 22 (+2)
121. Western Michigan (1-9): 16 (=)
122. Southern Mississippi (0-9): 10 (-3)
123. Massachusetts (1-8): -14 (+1)
124. Florida International (1-8): -51 (-1)
125. Georgia State (0-9): -114 (=)
126. Miami (OH) (0-9): -126 (=)
BIG MOVERS AND OTHER NOTES
Obviously, the stories of the week really took place on Thursday. One would not be silly to question how #5 Oregon could still be ranked ahead of #6 Stanford when the Cardinal just manhandled the Ducks for the second consecutive year. It is true that, match-up-wise, Stanford would likely win more than 50% of their games against the Ducks over the long stretch. But these rankings are supposed to reflect general ability. Think of it this way: Oregon's worst game this year was a loss to the #6 team in the country. Stanford's worst game this year was a loss to the #42 team in the country (Utah). Stanford's high might be higher than Oregon, but their low is lower too. The numbers punch out so that they're close enough the difference isn't particularly meaningful anyway.
On the other side of the coin, #3 Baylor impressed, hurdling #4 Ohio State and pulling virtually even with #2 Alabama. I was not surprised that the Bears put up 41; what shocked me was that they held Oklahoma to 12. Note that #57 Buffalo, #79 West Virginia, #53 Kansas State, and #101 Kansas all scored more than that against Baylor. Those were, for the most part, though, games in which Baylor had their scrubs in at halftime. They knew the game on Thursday night was one of the most important in program history, and they dominated every phase of the game. So, say it with me, slowly: The Baylor Bears... are legitimate... BCS Title Contenders. Wow.
#12 Virginia Tech can't figure out what they're doing. They lose to #65 Boston College, dropping 14 spots, and then maul #25 Miami (FL) to jump back up 19 spots. The win itself shouldn't have done that, but VaTech got the kind of boost that is pretty unique to an RPI system: every team on their schedule-to-date that played last week won, including Alabama over #29 LSU and a surprising #41 Pittsburgh over #34 Notre Dame.
#19 UCF also jumped way up with their win in the de facto AAC championship playoff, leap-frogging #20 Louisville, who underwhelmed in their win over #117 Connecticut. The Knights will be a bit out of place in a BCS game, but not incredibly so. I presume they've already clinched such a berth, because the only realistic way they can lose it to Louisville is if the Knights lose two of four against #115 Temple, #72 Rutgers, #105 South Florida, and #98 SMU (lord, the AAC is bad).
Watch out, here comes: #53 Kansas State. The Wildcats have won 3 in a row to get on the right side of .500, and should finish the season 7-5, with #76 TCU at home, #17 Oklahoma at home, and #101 Kansas on the road. After a season-opening loss to FCS squad North Dakota State, an FCS Championship contender that was ranked 30th of all teams in the country, just between Utah and Texas, by Jeff Sagarin's most recent rankings, the Wildcats have cobbled together a respectable season for having lost Colin Klein to graduation, which might have been as big a loss of total offense due to a single graduation in a long, long time.
Watch out, there goes: #68 Maryland. The Terps started 4-0, which got them a little number next to their name. Then, #1 Florida State beat them 63-0, the worst loss ever by a team with a little number next to its name. Since then, their only win is over lowly #91 Virginia, 27-26 at home. After the 4-0 start, the most likely finish would be weak bowl eligibility at 6-6. This presumes a win out of three games against Virginia Tech, Boston College, and #81 North Carolina State; at this point, there is no guarantee of such.
TOP/BOTTOM 10 RPI PROFILES:
1. Stanford
2. Alabama
3. Florida State
4. Arizona State
5. Missouri
6. Auburn
7. Virginia Tech
8. South Carolina
9. Ohio State
10. Oklahoma
...
117. Connecticut
118. Temple
119. Air Force
120. UTEP
121. Western Michigan
122. Florida International
123. Louisiana Tech
124. Massachusetts
125. Miami (OH)
126. Georgia State
TOP/BOTTOM 10 STATISTICAL PROFILES
1. Baylor
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Louisville
6. Alabama
7. Wisconsin
8. Michigan State
9. Missouri
10. Northern Illinois
...
117. Western Michigan
118. Georgia State
119. Massachusetts
120. Eastern Michigan
121. New Mexico State
122. Idaho
123. Miami (OH)
124. Purdue
125. Florida International
126. Southern Mississippi
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Week 11 College Football Preview: Thursday Night, plus a few dozen Saturday games
Hey everyone. The 11th week of the 2013-14 College Football season is underway, and that means we're far enough along that we're narrowed down to 4 or 5 title contenders but not far enough along that the BCS's nightmare scenario, 4-or-5-undefeated teams at the end of the season, has become an impossibility. Clearly, the games tonight will go a long way towards a resolution.
Today I'll give you:
- The Three Best Games
- The Three Closest Games
- The Three Biggest Mismatches
and
- The Worst, Most Horrible, Most Unwatchable Game of the Week.
All rankings referred to, unless otherwise noted, are RUBY RANKINGS, which can be found HERE.
BEST GAMES:
1. #2 Oregon at #8 Stanford
Obviously, this is an incredible match-up. Oregon has the second-best statistical profile behind #5 Baylor (see Best Game #2, below): they're 2nd in the nation in rushing, 2nd in scoring offense, 8th in scoring defense, and they limp to the barn with only the 20th-best passing offense in the country. The closest anyone's been able to get against them is 21, when #23 Washington pushed them to a 45-24 victory (it was 31-24 after three quarters).
Stanford, on the other hand, has the very best RPI component in the country; they've played a legitimately difficult schedule (27th hardest, by my estimation), reflecting a Pac-12 that, even without #25 USC contending for a title, is as good as it's ever been. Last year, of course, Stanford ended Oregon's BCS Championship hopes, paving the way for Alabama to Roll Tide to the title.
This should definitely be Oregon's closest game of the season; if it's not, they'll have a darn good claim on that Number 2 spot in the BCS. Stanford hasn't held a team under 10 so far this season (not bloody likely they'll do so against the Ducks), but they haven't allowed more than 28 either. The question is whether their offense can keep it close for 4 quarters, as Oregon will get its TDs.
I say the Ducks once again pull away in the 4th.
Oregon 34, Stanford 24.
2. #10 Oklahoma at #5 Baylor
To say Baylor is untested would be an understatement. They most difficult team they've played this season is #65 Kansas State; that was also the game in which they looked extremely vulnerable, trailing 25-21 before putting up 14 in the 4th quarter to win by 10. I detailed Baylor's ridiculous statistical profile at the bottom of this page. The numbers they're putting up are unreal, but they've been doing so against sub-par competition. Their Strength of Schedule is 11th-easiest.
Oklahoma, on the other hand, has defeated #21 Notre Dame and #34 Texas Tech, the latter of which was undefeated and flying high when OU took them down a notch. I am almost willing to completely excuse Oklahoma's loss to #33 Texas: in a major rivalry, one team came in needing - not really, really, badly wanting, needing - a win to avoid watching their season and program crumble apart. There are a lot of one-loss teams out there whose loss has been to a worse team than Texas (like Stanford).
Although the numbers - and the Ruby Rankings - say otherwise, I'm not quite prepared to believe that Baylor's ready for Prime Time. If they can win this game, though, they're clear Big 12 favorites and will prove that they're the fifth - and final, by my estimation - true contender for the national title.
Oklahoma 51, Baylor 38
3. #11 BYU at #20 Wisconsin
Don't be fooled by the BCS rankings, in which Wisconsin is 24th and BYU is unranked. This game is a diamond in the rough.
Brigham Young started the season 1-2 with losses to #80 Virginia (looks awful in hindsight) and #41 Utah (looks not so bad in hindsight; see Stanford, above). Since then, they're 5-0, and have defeated four top-50 teams in a row (#47 Utah State, #24 Georgia Tech, #29 Houston, and #50 Boise State). This defense is good, and is led by Kyle Van Noy, who projects to be a mid-first round pick in next year's NFL draft.
On the other side of the field will be Wisconsin, a squad that always seems to win and look bad doing it. The Badgers are 6-2 this year, but they should be 7-1; a late-game gaffe by the officiating crew cost them the game against #7 Arizona State (another team that is seriously underrated). Their only other loss was by a touchdown to #4 Ohio State, which has been smacking down teams left and right this year. So. Two losses, combined 9 points, to two top-10 teams. And these guys are ranked only 24th in the BCS? Their 29-point win against #66 Northwestern doesn't look particularly special, but remember that NW was 4-0 and ranked 16th in the nation when they went into Madison.
I like BYU in this one, but it'll be close.
BYU 24, Wisconsin 21
CLOSEST GAMES:
1. #29 Houston at #30 UCF
This should be a fantastic contest. Houston's high-powered passing attack going against the speed of UCF. Note that both of these teams control their own AAC destinies: if either of these teams wins out, that team, and not #14 Louisville, will go to a BCS game. Probably to get destroyed, but, who knows?
The path is easier for UCF, who has already defeated Louisville. If they take care of Houston on Saturday night, their biggest remaining challenge will be... #69 Rutgers. Houston, on the other hand, faces Louisville next week.
I like Houston in a very high scoring, very fun-to-watch game.
Houston 48, UCF 38
2. #112 Air Force at #113 New Mexico
This... should be... a little less fantastic. Air Force started their season with a 38-15 win over FCS opponent Colgate, but lost 7 straight before besting #102 Army last week. New Mexico also has two wins, but they're no more impressive; UNM has taken care of #120 UTEP (in Overtime!) and #122 New Mexico State.
Interestingly enough, these teams run very similar offenses; Air Force is 11th in the country in rushing (122nd in passing) and New Mexico is 3rd in the country in rushing (and 120th in passing).
This isn't an unstoppable object hitting an immovable force. It's more like... a fragile projectile contacting a flimsy barricade. We'll call this one for the home team.
UNM 33, Air Force 29
3. #76 Arkansas State at #79 Louisiana-Monroe
A battle of Sun Belt... ahem... "heavyweights." Both of these schools have a single loss in-conference, and are the only two that could keep #46 Louisiana-Lafayette from winning the conference, and the prestigious right to face... not making this up... the #6 team from the C-USA in the New Orleans Bowl (right now, that projects to be #81 Middle Tennessee). Herp derp.
Both of these teams have actually played good schedules; Arkansas State has fallen to #12 Auburn and #6 Missouri, while Louisiana-Monroe has been defeated by Oklahoma and Baylor. Both of these squads will at least have enough experience to realize that their foes aren't exactly SEC or Big 12 competition.
We'll give it to ULM, in the hope that this year's edition of the annual, last-week match-up between Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana-Lafayette will have something more than state pride on the line.
ULM 30, Arkansas State 21.
BIGGEST MISMATCHES
1. FCS Appalachian State at #17 Georgia
We all remember Appalachian State's shocking defeat of then-number-5 Michigan to begin the 2007 season; the Mountaineers had won the last two FCS Championships, and would win a third in a row that year. Yeah. Those days are over. Appalachian State is now in its last FCS, preparing for a transition to the FBS, and doing a poor job of it: they're 2-7 this year.
Georgia's also been disappointing, but they've been compared against a very different standard. Hoping for an SEC title, they fell to #9 Clemson in week 1, (not a bad loss by any means, and not an SEC loss), #6 Missouri (not a bad loss by any means), and #61 Vanderbilt (oooh kay; for Georgia, yeah, this is a bad loss).
At any rate, this one should be the equivalent of a walk-through as Georgia prepares to go to Auburn next week.
Georgia 50, Appalachian State 7.
2. #14 Louisville at #118 Connecticut
I've written about both of these teams at length; Louisville is a very strong team, and Connecticut is the only BCS Conference team without a win.
Louisville 44, Connecticut 3.
3. #1 Florida State at #77 Wake Forest
At least Wake Forest won't have a long plane ride home. Florida State took care of #13 Miami pretty handily, even with Jameis Winston throwing two first-half interceptions. Wake Forest's best win was over #57 Maryland, and although that's nothing to scoff at, they're also coming off a shutout loss to #67 Syracuse.
Not looking good for the Demon Deacons.
Florida State 54, Wake Forest 17.
WORST, MOST HORRIBLE, MOST UNWATCHABLE GAME OF THE WEEK
#121 Western Michigan at #117 Eastern Michigan
Oh dear lord, kill it with fire. Both of these teams are 1-8, so at least this rivalry game should be evenly matched. Western Michigan got its first win last week, 31-30, over #124 Massachusetts. Eastern Michigan, however, has lost 8 straight; they won their first game over FCS Howard (34-24).
Eastern Michigan in a close one.
EMU -18, WMU -21.
CHECK BACK ON MONDAY FOR THE UPDATED RUBY RANKINGS.
Today I'll give you:
- The Three Best Games
- The Three Closest Games
- The Three Biggest Mismatches
and
- The Worst, Most Horrible, Most Unwatchable Game of the Week.
All rankings referred to, unless otherwise noted, are RUBY RANKINGS, which can be found HERE.
BEST GAMES:
1. #2 Oregon at #8 Stanford
Obviously, this is an incredible match-up. Oregon has the second-best statistical profile behind #5 Baylor (see Best Game #2, below): they're 2nd in the nation in rushing, 2nd in scoring offense, 8th in scoring defense, and they limp to the barn with only the 20th-best passing offense in the country. The closest anyone's been able to get against them is 21, when #23 Washington pushed them to a 45-24 victory (it was 31-24 after three quarters).
Stanford, on the other hand, has the very best RPI component in the country; they've played a legitimately difficult schedule (27th hardest, by my estimation), reflecting a Pac-12 that, even without #25 USC contending for a title, is as good as it's ever been. Last year, of course, Stanford ended Oregon's BCS Championship hopes, paving the way for Alabama to Roll Tide to the title.
This should definitely be Oregon's closest game of the season; if it's not, they'll have a darn good claim on that Number 2 spot in the BCS. Stanford hasn't held a team under 10 so far this season (not bloody likely they'll do so against the Ducks), but they haven't allowed more than 28 either. The question is whether their offense can keep it close for 4 quarters, as Oregon will get its TDs.
I say the Ducks once again pull away in the 4th.
Oregon 34, Stanford 24.
2. #10 Oklahoma at #5 Baylor
To say Baylor is untested would be an understatement. They most difficult team they've played this season is #65 Kansas State; that was also the game in which they looked extremely vulnerable, trailing 25-21 before putting up 14 in the 4th quarter to win by 10. I detailed Baylor's ridiculous statistical profile at the bottom of this page. The numbers they're putting up are unreal, but they've been doing so against sub-par competition. Their Strength of Schedule is 11th-easiest.
Oklahoma, on the other hand, has defeated #21 Notre Dame and #34 Texas Tech, the latter of which was undefeated and flying high when OU took them down a notch. I am almost willing to completely excuse Oklahoma's loss to #33 Texas: in a major rivalry, one team came in needing - not really, really, badly wanting, needing - a win to avoid watching their season and program crumble apart. There are a lot of one-loss teams out there whose loss has been to a worse team than Texas (like Stanford).
Although the numbers - and the Ruby Rankings - say otherwise, I'm not quite prepared to believe that Baylor's ready for Prime Time. If they can win this game, though, they're clear Big 12 favorites and will prove that they're the fifth - and final, by my estimation - true contender for the national title.
Oklahoma 51, Baylor 38
3. #11 BYU at #20 Wisconsin
Don't be fooled by the BCS rankings, in which Wisconsin is 24th and BYU is unranked. This game is a diamond in the rough.
Brigham Young started the season 1-2 with losses to #80 Virginia (looks awful in hindsight) and #41 Utah (looks not so bad in hindsight; see Stanford, above). Since then, they're 5-0, and have defeated four top-50 teams in a row (#47 Utah State, #24 Georgia Tech, #29 Houston, and #50 Boise State). This defense is good, and is led by Kyle Van Noy, who projects to be a mid-first round pick in next year's NFL draft.
On the other side of the field will be Wisconsin, a squad that always seems to win and look bad doing it. The Badgers are 6-2 this year, but they should be 7-1; a late-game gaffe by the officiating crew cost them the game against #7 Arizona State (another team that is seriously underrated). Their only other loss was by a touchdown to #4 Ohio State, which has been smacking down teams left and right this year. So. Two losses, combined 9 points, to two top-10 teams. And these guys are ranked only 24th in the BCS? Their 29-point win against #66 Northwestern doesn't look particularly special, but remember that NW was 4-0 and ranked 16th in the nation when they went into Madison.
I like BYU in this one, but it'll be close.
BYU 24, Wisconsin 21
CLOSEST GAMES:
1. #29 Houston at #30 UCF
This should be a fantastic contest. Houston's high-powered passing attack going against the speed of UCF. Note that both of these teams control their own AAC destinies: if either of these teams wins out, that team, and not #14 Louisville, will go to a BCS game. Probably to get destroyed, but, who knows?
The path is easier for UCF, who has already defeated Louisville. If they take care of Houston on Saturday night, their biggest remaining challenge will be... #69 Rutgers. Houston, on the other hand, faces Louisville next week.
I like Houston in a very high scoring, very fun-to-watch game.
Houston 48, UCF 38
2. #112 Air Force at #113 New Mexico
This... should be... a little less fantastic. Air Force started their season with a 38-15 win over FCS opponent Colgate, but lost 7 straight before besting #102 Army last week. New Mexico also has two wins, but they're no more impressive; UNM has taken care of #120 UTEP (in Overtime!) and #122 New Mexico State.
Interestingly enough, these teams run very similar offenses; Air Force is 11th in the country in rushing (122nd in passing) and New Mexico is 3rd in the country in rushing (and 120th in passing).
This isn't an unstoppable object hitting an immovable force. It's more like... a fragile projectile contacting a flimsy barricade. We'll call this one for the home team.
UNM 33, Air Force 29
3. #76 Arkansas State at #79 Louisiana-Monroe
A battle of Sun Belt... ahem... "heavyweights." Both of these schools have a single loss in-conference, and are the only two that could keep #46 Louisiana-Lafayette from winning the conference, and the prestigious right to face... not making this up... the #6 team from the C-USA in the New Orleans Bowl (right now, that projects to be #81 Middle Tennessee). Herp derp.
Both of these teams have actually played good schedules; Arkansas State has fallen to #12 Auburn and #6 Missouri, while Louisiana-Monroe has been defeated by Oklahoma and Baylor. Both of these squads will at least have enough experience to realize that their foes aren't exactly SEC or Big 12 competition.
We'll give it to ULM, in the hope that this year's edition of the annual, last-week match-up between Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana-Lafayette will have something more than state pride on the line.
ULM 30, Arkansas State 21.
BIGGEST MISMATCHES
1. FCS Appalachian State at #17 Georgia
We all remember Appalachian State's shocking defeat of then-number-5 Michigan to begin the 2007 season; the Mountaineers had won the last two FCS Championships, and would win a third in a row that year. Yeah. Those days are over. Appalachian State is now in its last FCS, preparing for a transition to the FBS, and doing a poor job of it: they're 2-7 this year.
Georgia's also been disappointing, but they've been compared against a very different standard. Hoping for an SEC title, they fell to #9 Clemson in week 1, (not a bad loss by any means, and not an SEC loss), #6 Missouri (not a bad loss by any means), and #61 Vanderbilt (oooh kay; for Georgia, yeah, this is a bad loss).
At any rate, this one should be the equivalent of a walk-through as Georgia prepares to go to Auburn next week.
Georgia 50, Appalachian State 7.
2. #14 Louisville at #118 Connecticut
I've written about both of these teams at length; Louisville is a very strong team, and Connecticut is the only BCS Conference team without a win.
Louisville 44, Connecticut 3.
3. #1 Florida State at #77 Wake Forest
At least Wake Forest won't have a long plane ride home. Florida State took care of #13 Miami pretty handily, even with Jameis Winston throwing two first-half interceptions. Wake Forest's best win was over #57 Maryland, and although that's nothing to scoff at, they're also coming off a shutout loss to #67 Syracuse.
Not looking good for the Demon Deacons.
Florida State 54, Wake Forest 17.
WORST, MOST HORRIBLE, MOST UNWATCHABLE GAME OF THE WEEK
#121 Western Michigan at #117 Eastern Michigan
Oh dear lord, kill it with fire. Both of these teams are 1-8, so at least this rivalry game should be evenly matched. Western Michigan got its first win last week, 31-30, over #124 Massachusetts. Eastern Michigan, however, has lost 8 straight; they won their first game over FCS Howard (34-24).
Eastern Michigan in a close one.
EMU -18, WMU -21.
CHECK BACK ON MONDAY FOR THE UPDATED RUBY RANKINGS.
Monday, November 4, 2013
2014 Ruby Rankings: NCAA FBS Rankings (Week 10)
Here are the Week 10 Ruby Rankings. Last week's Rankings can be found HERE!
The basics are as follows:
1) The 126 FBS teams are roughly scaled from 0 (a bottom-five, roughly winless team) to 1000 (a BCS Championship Favorite).
2) The ranking takes into account wins/losses, strength of schedule, and statistics.
3) The rankings are updated weekly.
WEEK 10 RUBY RANKINGS:
Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score (RANK Change from Last Week)
1. Florida State (8-0): 1012 (=)
2. Oregon (8-0): 932 (=)
3. Alabama (8-0): 895 (=)
4. Ohio State (9-0): 883 (=)
5. Baylor (7-0): 862 (=)
6. Missouri (8-1): 862 (=)
7. Arizona State (6-2): 842 (+1)
8. Stanford (7-1): 817 (-1)
9. Clemson (8-1): 809 (+1)
10. Oklahoma (7-1): 800 (-1)
11. BYU (6-2): 789 (+2)
12. Auburn (8-1): 776 (-1)
13. Miami (FL) (7-1): 744 (-1)
14. Louisville (7-1): 741 (+1)
15. South Carolina (7-2): 735 (+6)
16. Texas A&M (7-2): 733 (-2)
17. Georgia (5-3): 728 (+2)
18. Michigan State (8-1): 726 (+7)
19. UCLA (6-2): 718 (-1)
20. Wisconsin (6-2): 714 (+3)
21. Notre Dame (7-2): 692 (+6)
22. Mississippi (5-3): 677 (+2)
23. Washington (5-3): 677 (+3)
24. Georgia Tech (6-3): 676 (+8)
25. USC (6-3): 676 (+12)
26. LSU (7-2): 675 (-6)
27. Oklahoma State (7-1): 675 (+8)
28. Michigan (6-2): 674 (-12)
29. Houston (7-1): 672 (-7)
30. UCF (6-1): 668 (+3)
31. Virginia Tech (6-3): 663 (-14)
32. Arizona (6-2): 641 (-3)
33. Texas (6-2): 638 (+1)
34. Texas Tech (7-2): 624 (-3)
35. Florida (4-4): 616 (-7)
36. East Carolina (6-2): 614 (=)
37. Nebraska (6-2): 610 (+7)
38. Fresno State (8-0): 608 (+2)
39. Northern Illinois (9-0): 603 (-1)
40. Minnesota (7-2): 591 (-1)
41. Utah (4-4): 591 (+2)
42. North Texas (6-3): 581 (+5)
43. Mississippi State (4-4): 548 (-13)
44. Duke (6-2): 548 (-2)
45. Iowa (5-4): 535 (-4)
46. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-2): 529 (+3)
47. Utah State (5-4): 522 (+10)
48. Ball State (8-1): 520 (+2)
49. Oregon State (6-3): 518 (-4)
50. Boise State (6-3): 515 (+6)
51. Toledo (6-3): 514 (+3)
52. Tennessee (4-5): 509 (-4)
53. Penn State (5-3): 504 (-1)
54. Marshall (5-3): 497 (+5)
55. North Carolina (3-5): 497 (+5)
56. Rice (6-3): 494 (-5)
57. Maryland (5-3): 493 (-2)
58. Pittsburgh (4-4): 491 (-12)
59. Ohio (6-2): 489 (-1)
60. Indiana (3-5): 483 (-7)
61. Vanderbilt (4-4): 465 (+1)
62. Navy (4-4): 462 (-2)
63. Boston College (4-4): 461 (+15)
64. San Jose State (5-3): 447 (+12)
65. Kansas State (4-4): 446 (+10)
66. Northwestern (4-5): 436 (-1)
67. Syracuse (4-4): 434 (+6)
68. Buffalo (6-2): 425 (-1)
69. Rutgers (5-3): 424 (-1)
70. Washington State (4-5): 419 (-7)
71. TCU (3-6): 418 (-7)
72. Florida Atlantic (3-6): 411 (+12)
73. Colorado (3-5): 403 (-4)
74. Tulane (6-3): 369 (-4)
75. Bowling Green (5-3): 399 (-4)
76. Arkansas State (4-4): 383 (+4)
77. Wake Forest (4-5): 382 (-11)
78. West Virginia (4-5): 377 (+3)
79. Louisiana-Monroe (5-4): 374 (+6)
80. Virginia (2-7): 369 (-8)
81. Middle Tennessee (5-4): 367 (+9)
82. Cincinnati (6-2): 366 (+6)
83. Western Kentucky (5-4): 363 (-6)
84. Texas State (6-3): 363 (-2)
85. Arkansas (3-6): 360 (-2)
86. UTSA (4-5): 356 (+3)
87. UNLV (5-4): 353 (-8)
88. North Carolina State (3-5): 352 (-14)
89. Illinois (3-5): 314 (+5)
90. Wyoming (4-4): 312 (+3)
91. Memphis (1-6): 309 (-5)
92. San Diego State (4-4): 304 (+4)
93. Old Dominion (6-3): 301 (+4)
94. Colorado State (4-5): 299 (-2)
95. Nevada (3-6): 291 (+5)
96. South Alabama (3-5): 288 (-9)
97. Troy (5-4): 281 (-6)
98. SMU (3-4): 270 (-3)
99. Akron (3-7): 270 (+4)
100. Kentucky (2-6): 268 (+1)
101. Kansas (2-6): 250 (-2)
102. Army (3-6): 222 (-4)
103. Central Michigan (3-5): 217 (+1)
104. South Florida (2-6): 204 (+5)
105. Purdue (1-7): 201 (+2)
106. California (1-8): 195 (=)
107. Tulsa (2-6): 192 (-5)
108. Iowa State (1-7): 155 (-3)
109. UAB (2-6): 134 (+3)
110. Kent State (2-8): 127 (-2)
111. Air Force (2-7): 127 (+6)
112. New Mexico (2-6): 123 (-2)
113. Louisiana Tech (3-5): 114 (-2)
114. Temple (1-8): 100 (=)
115. Idaho (1-8): 88 (+1)
116. Hawai'i (0-8): 74 (-3)
117. Eastern Michigan (1-8): 58 (-2)
118. Connecticut (0-7): 39 (=)
119. Southern Miss (0-8): 33 (+1)
120. UTEP (1-7): 8 (-1)
121. Western Michigan (1-8): -2 (=)
122. New Mexico State (1-8): -22 (=)
123. Florida International (1-7): -31 (=)
124. Massachusetts (1-8): -44 (=)
125. Georgia State (0-9): -108 (=)
126. Miami (OH) (0-8): -126 (=)
Big Movers and Other Notes
- Michigan State jumps up 7 spots, to 18th, after defeating rival Michigan (who fell from 16 to 28). The Spartans' win was a pretty straightforward beat-down, as they outgained the Wolverines 394 to 168, and in fact held Michigan to -48 yards rushing. Yikes. Also very big: Michigan was 2 for 14 on third down. Now, it's not as though MSU's offense was particularly good, but it was good enough when their defense was able to destroy the side of the ball Michigan had been better on all year. I don't think anyone in the Big 10 can hang with #4 Ohio State. But if anyone can slow the Buckeyes' run-first offense down enough to give themselves a chance, it's Sparty.
- Welcome to the Ruby Rankings Top 25, #24 Georgia Tech. These guys are always hard to deal with, because they're not very much like other FBS teams. The Yellow Jackets rank 5th in rushing yards per game (311.2) and 8th-worst in passing yards per game (119.6). Tech is 6-3, with all of those wins being against teams that are clearly worse than them and two of the losses against teams that are clearly better than them; only their loss to #31 Virginia Tech, whose ranking has plummeted after successive losses to #44 Duke (excusable) and #63 Boston College (inexcusable) looks bad in hindsight. Unfortunately, of GaTech's last three games, the next two probably aren't going to tell us much: they should lose badly to #9 Clemson and obliterate FCS squad Alabama A&M. It'll be interesting to see if they can keep up with #17 Georgia in the last week. That should be a good game.
- Welcome to the Ruby Rankings Top 50, #47 Utah State. No one's going to mistake this group for a BCS squad - they're 5-4, 4-1 in the Mountain West Conference - but they've smacked around everyone they've defeated, and are one of the bigger players in a bad-but-not-as-bad-as-the-MAC conference.
A Few Thoughts:
1. Congrats to #53 Penn State's Ryan Keiser, an acquaintance of mine and one of the shining athletic stars of our god-forsaken hometown. Keiser's interception off a deflection sealed the OT victory for the Nittany Lions, their second in-conference overtime win this year. Didn't keep them from dropping a spot in the Ruby Rankings, though, as the computer thought they should've had an easier time with #89 Illinois.
2. Was anyone really surprised with #1 Florida State's second-half smackdown of #13 Miami (FL)? Nah. If you were, you weren't paying attention to the season up to this point. In all fairness, if you told me that Jameis Winston would throw more INTs (2) than TDs (1), I would've expected FSU to only win by, maybe, 20, not the actual 27.
3. #16 Texas A&M drops 2 spots after drubbing #120 UTEP 57-7. The Aggies trailed 7-2 at one point, but rattled off 55 straight before the end of the 3rd quarter. The 564 yards A&M put up actually hurt their season average a little: they're now at 582.6 yards per game, behind #5 Baylor (a staggering 717.3) and #2 Oregon (582.6).
4. More on Baylor. Number of teams (out of 126) with:
- Less than half as many yards per game as Baylor: 29
- Less than a third as many yards per game as Baylor: 2
- Less than half as many points per game as Baylor: 74
- Less than a third as many points per game as Baylor: 24
- Fewer plays of 20+ yards than Baylor has of 50+ yards: 2
- Fewer plays of 30+ yards than Baylor has of 60+ yards: 19
Craziness. We'll see if the 63.9 PPG holds up over the next 3 weeks against Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State.
5. There is only one team in the country that is 100% on 4th-down conversions. There is also only one team in the country that is 0% on 4th-down conversions. These happen to be #1 Florida State and #14 Louisville, respectively, and they also happen to be the only two teams in the country that have gone for a 4th down conversion only once this year.
Coming in the next week:
- NCAA FBS Week 11 Preview
- 2013 MLB Season Recap/Prediction Review
- NFL Midpoint Analysis!
And maybe even more!
The basics are as follows:
1) The 126 FBS teams are roughly scaled from 0 (a bottom-five, roughly winless team) to 1000 (a BCS Championship Favorite).
2) The ranking takes into account wins/losses, strength of schedule, and statistics.
3) The rankings are updated weekly.
WEEK 10 RUBY RANKINGS:
Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score (RANK Change from Last Week)
1. Florida State (8-0): 1012 (=)
2. Oregon (8-0): 932 (=)
3. Alabama (8-0): 895 (=)
4. Ohio State (9-0): 883 (=)
5. Baylor (7-0): 862 (=)
6. Missouri (8-1): 862 (=)
7. Arizona State (6-2): 842 (+1)
8. Stanford (7-1): 817 (-1)
9. Clemson (8-1): 809 (+1)
10. Oklahoma (7-1): 800 (-1)
11. BYU (6-2): 789 (+2)
12. Auburn (8-1): 776 (-1)
13. Miami (FL) (7-1): 744 (-1)
14. Louisville (7-1): 741 (+1)
15. South Carolina (7-2): 735 (+6)
16. Texas A&M (7-2): 733 (-2)
17. Georgia (5-3): 728 (+2)
18. Michigan State (8-1): 726 (+7)
19. UCLA (6-2): 718 (-1)
20. Wisconsin (6-2): 714 (+3)
21. Notre Dame (7-2): 692 (+6)
22. Mississippi (5-3): 677 (+2)
23. Washington (5-3): 677 (+3)
24. Georgia Tech (6-3): 676 (+8)
25. USC (6-3): 676 (+12)
26. LSU (7-2): 675 (-6)
27. Oklahoma State (7-1): 675 (+8)
28. Michigan (6-2): 674 (-12)
29. Houston (7-1): 672 (-7)
30. UCF (6-1): 668 (+3)
31. Virginia Tech (6-3): 663 (-14)
32. Arizona (6-2): 641 (-3)
33. Texas (6-2): 638 (+1)
34. Texas Tech (7-2): 624 (-3)
35. Florida (4-4): 616 (-7)
36. East Carolina (6-2): 614 (=)
37. Nebraska (6-2): 610 (+7)
38. Fresno State (8-0): 608 (+2)
39. Northern Illinois (9-0): 603 (-1)
40. Minnesota (7-2): 591 (-1)
41. Utah (4-4): 591 (+2)
42. North Texas (6-3): 581 (+5)
43. Mississippi State (4-4): 548 (-13)
44. Duke (6-2): 548 (-2)
45. Iowa (5-4): 535 (-4)
46. Louisiana-Lafayette (6-2): 529 (+3)
47. Utah State (5-4): 522 (+10)
48. Ball State (8-1): 520 (+2)
49. Oregon State (6-3): 518 (-4)
50. Boise State (6-3): 515 (+6)
51. Toledo (6-3): 514 (+3)
52. Tennessee (4-5): 509 (-4)
53. Penn State (5-3): 504 (-1)
54. Marshall (5-3): 497 (+5)
55. North Carolina (3-5): 497 (+5)
56. Rice (6-3): 494 (-5)
57. Maryland (5-3): 493 (-2)
58. Pittsburgh (4-4): 491 (-12)
59. Ohio (6-2): 489 (-1)
60. Indiana (3-5): 483 (-7)
61. Vanderbilt (4-4): 465 (+1)
62. Navy (4-4): 462 (-2)
63. Boston College (4-4): 461 (+15)
64. San Jose State (5-3): 447 (+12)
65. Kansas State (4-4): 446 (+10)
66. Northwestern (4-5): 436 (-1)
67. Syracuse (4-4): 434 (+6)
68. Buffalo (6-2): 425 (-1)
69. Rutgers (5-3): 424 (-1)
70. Washington State (4-5): 419 (-7)
71. TCU (3-6): 418 (-7)
72. Florida Atlantic (3-6): 411 (+12)
73. Colorado (3-5): 403 (-4)
74. Tulane (6-3): 369 (-4)
75. Bowling Green (5-3): 399 (-4)
76. Arkansas State (4-4): 383 (+4)
77. Wake Forest (4-5): 382 (-11)
78. West Virginia (4-5): 377 (+3)
79. Louisiana-Monroe (5-4): 374 (+6)
80. Virginia (2-7): 369 (-8)
81. Middle Tennessee (5-4): 367 (+9)
82. Cincinnati (6-2): 366 (+6)
83. Western Kentucky (5-4): 363 (-6)
84. Texas State (6-3): 363 (-2)
85. Arkansas (3-6): 360 (-2)
86. UTSA (4-5): 356 (+3)
87. UNLV (5-4): 353 (-8)
88. North Carolina State (3-5): 352 (-14)
89. Illinois (3-5): 314 (+5)
90. Wyoming (4-4): 312 (+3)
91. Memphis (1-6): 309 (-5)
92. San Diego State (4-4): 304 (+4)
93. Old Dominion (6-3): 301 (+4)
94. Colorado State (4-5): 299 (-2)
95. Nevada (3-6): 291 (+5)
96. South Alabama (3-5): 288 (-9)
97. Troy (5-4): 281 (-6)
98. SMU (3-4): 270 (-3)
99. Akron (3-7): 270 (+4)
100. Kentucky (2-6): 268 (+1)
101. Kansas (2-6): 250 (-2)
102. Army (3-6): 222 (-4)
103. Central Michigan (3-5): 217 (+1)
104. South Florida (2-6): 204 (+5)
105. Purdue (1-7): 201 (+2)
106. California (1-8): 195 (=)
107. Tulsa (2-6): 192 (-5)
108. Iowa State (1-7): 155 (-3)
109. UAB (2-6): 134 (+3)
110. Kent State (2-8): 127 (-2)
111. Air Force (2-7): 127 (+6)
112. New Mexico (2-6): 123 (-2)
113. Louisiana Tech (3-5): 114 (-2)
114. Temple (1-8): 100 (=)
115. Idaho (1-8): 88 (+1)
116. Hawai'i (0-8): 74 (-3)
117. Eastern Michigan (1-8): 58 (-2)
118. Connecticut (0-7): 39 (=)
119. Southern Miss (0-8): 33 (+1)
120. UTEP (1-7): 8 (-1)
121. Western Michigan (1-8): -2 (=)
122. New Mexico State (1-8): -22 (=)
123. Florida International (1-7): -31 (=)
124. Massachusetts (1-8): -44 (=)
125. Georgia State (0-9): -108 (=)
126. Miami (OH) (0-8): -126 (=)
Big Movers and Other Notes
- Michigan State jumps up 7 spots, to 18th, after defeating rival Michigan (who fell from 16 to 28). The Spartans' win was a pretty straightforward beat-down, as they outgained the Wolverines 394 to 168, and in fact held Michigan to -48 yards rushing. Yikes. Also very big: Michigan was 2 for 14 on third down. Now, it's not as though MSU's offense was particularly good, but it was good enough when their defense was able to destroy the side of the ball Michigan had been better on all year. I don't think anyone in the Big 10 can hang with #4 Ohio State. But if anyone can slow the Buckeyes' run-first offense down enough to give themselves a chance, it's Sparty.
- Welcome to the Ruby Rankings Top 25, #24 Georgia Tech. These guys are always hard to deal with, because they're not very much like other FBS teams. The Yellow Jackets rank 5th in rushing yards per game (311.2) and 8th-worst in passing yards per game (119.6). Tech is 6-3, with all of those wins being against teams that are clearly worse than them and two of the losses against teams that are clearly better than them; only their loss to #31 Virginia Tech, whose ranking has plummeted after successive losses to #44 Duke (excusable) and #63 Boston College (inexcusable) looks bad in hindsight. Unfortunately, of GaTech's last three games, the next two probably aren't going to tell us much: they should lose badly to #9 Clemson and obliterate FCS squad Alabama A&M. It'll be interesting to see if they can keep up with #17 Georgia in the last week. That should be a good game.
- Welcome to the Ruby Rankings Top 50, #47 Utah State. No one's going to mistake this group for a BCS squad - they're 5-4, 4-1 in the Mountain West Conference - but they've smacked around everyone they've defeated, and are one of the bigger players in a bad-but-not-as-bad-as-the-MAC conference.
A Few Thoughts:
1. Congrats to #53 Penn State's Ryan Keiser, an acquaintance of mine and one of the shining athletic stars of our god-forsaken hometown. Keiser's interception off a deflection sealed the OT victory for the Nittany Lions, their second in-conference overtime win this year. Didn't keep them from dropping a spot in the Ruby Rankings, though, as the computer thought they should've had an easier time with #89 Illinois.
2. Was anyone really surprised with #1 Florida State's second-half smackdown of #13 Miami (FL)? Nah. If you were, you weren't paying attention to the season up to this point. In all fairness, if you told me that Jameis Winston would throw more INTs (2) than TDs (1), I would've expected FSU to only win by, maybe, 20, not the actual 27.
3. #16 Texas A&M drops 2 spots after drubbing #120 UTEP 57-7. The Aggies trailed 7-2 at one point, but rattled off 55 straight before the end of the 3rd quarter. The 564 yards A&M put up actually hurt their season average a little: they're now at 582.6 yards per game, behind #5 Baylor (a staggering 717.3) and #2 Oregon (582.6).
4. More on Baylor. Number of teams (out of 126) with:
- Less than half as many yards per game as Baylor: 29
- Less than a third as many yards per game as Baylor: 2
- Less than half as many points per game as Baylor: 74
- Less than a third as many points per game as Baylor: 24
- Fewer plays of 20+ yards than Baylor has of 50+ yards: 2
- Fewer plays of 30+ yards than Baylor has of 60+ yards: 19
Craziness. We'll see if the 63.9 PPG holds up over the next 3 weeks against Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State.
5. There is only one team in the country that is 100% on 4th-down conversions. There is also only one team in the country that is 0% on 4th-down conversions. These happen to be #1 Florida State and #14 Louisville, respectively, and they also happen to be the only two teams in the country that have gone for a 4th down conversion only once this year.
Coming in the next week:
- NCAA FBS Week 11 Preview
- 2013 MLB Season Recap/Prediction Review
- NFL Midpoint Analysis!
And maybe even more!
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
NCAAF Week 10 PREVIEW!!!
The rankings used in this post are the Ruby Rankings, which can be found HERE!
The FBS games this week can be readily broken down into two major categories:
#1 Florida State vs. #12 Miami
-and-
Every Other Game.
Clearly, the match-up in Tallahassee is the highlight of the weekend, with both teams coming in undefeated and ranked in the top 7 of the BCS. We'll all be waiting for the 8 PM kick-off anxiously, to see if Jimbo Fisher's squad can demolish another ACC foe.
Here's how the WEEKLY NCAAF PREVIEW is going to work: I'll give you the games that are:
- The 5 Closest Matches,
- The 5 Biggest Mismatches,
- The 3 Most Watchable (combination of closeness and talent; two similar 7-1 teams playing will be more exciting than two identical 3-5 teams plaing), and
- The Single Most Excruciating.
Armed with such knowledge, it is up which games to enjoy and avoid!
The Closest Matches:
1. #76 San Jose State (4-3) vs. #79 UNLV (5-3). Both of these teams are 3-1 in-conference, but are greatly overshadowed by Fresno State. UNLV has already lost to the Bulldogs, meaning that their MWC title hopes are all-but dashed, but if San Jose State can win this one, there's a good chance the SJSU-Fresno State match-up on November 29th will be a de facto MWC semifinal.
2. #86 Memphis (1-5) vs. #88 Cincinnati (5-2). This is a strange match-up; the Ruby Rankings actually have Memphis as the favorite, despite their sole win. This is largely because Memphis's adjusted strength-of-schedule is 10th hardest out of 126, while Cincinnati's sits in dead last. Those two losses are against teams worse than Memphis. This is a Wednesday night game, which means that I might be the only one paying attention.
3. #47 North Texas (5-3) vs. #51 Rice (6-2). Does anyone remember that Rice hung with #14 Texas A&M in week 1, losing by a respectable 52-31? Nah. Johnny Football didn't play the first half of that one. Since then, though, the Owls have gone 6-1 and cruised to a 4-0 C-USA record. North Texas similarly stuck with #19 Georgia earlier this year before the Bulldogs pulled away to a 24-point win. These two teams have very different styles - Rice is run, run, run, and UNT has a balanced, pass-first attack - but are very similar in quality.
4. #85 Louisiana-Monroe (4-4) vs. #91 Troy (5-3). These are the only two teams that could keep #49 Louisiana-Lafayette from winning the Sun Belt Conference title. The loser of this game will likely be eliminated from such contention.
5. #31 Texas Tech (7-1) vs. #35 Oklahoma State (6-1). Let's face it: everybody paying attention should have expected #9 Oklahoma to take care of Texas Tech last week. They did. That being said, both of these squads are still in Big 12 title contention; neither has played #5 Baylor or #34 Texas, the only two teams without Big 12 losses. Like many of the games above, these teams are in similar enough spots that this match-up will function to eliminate one from championship contention.
The Biggest Mismatches:
1. #14 Texas A&M (6-2) vs. #120 UTEP (1-6). Congratulations to the Miners for trying to improve their strength-of-schedule, or make some quick money, or something. This should be ugly; UTEP is coming off a 38-point loss to Rice, and Texas A&M is going to find the bottom of the C-USA barrel even less resistant than #62 Vanderbilt and #83 Arkansas (who the Aggies beat by a combined 34 points).
2. #4 Ohio State (8-0) vs. #107 Purdue (1-6). After their dismantling of #52 Penn State last week, the Buckeyes should find things even easier against the Boilermakers. Only four teams have managed to put up fewer points per game than Purdue this year, and only four teams have managed to put up more points per game than Ohio State this year. Boom.
3. #38 Northern Illinois (8-0) vs. #124 Massachusetts (1-7). NIU doesn't have to worry about whether they're BCS-worthy this week. They face a Minutemen squad that scores the fewest points per game in the nation (10.9), and is in the bottom-20 in both passing and rushing. Huskies QB Jordan Lynch already has 1,711 yards passing and 1,031 rushing, accounting for 26 TDs. Expect that number to be on the other side of 30 (or 32?) by this time next week.
4. #36 East Carolina (5-2) vs. #123 Florida International (1-6). ECU's in the C-USA East driver's seat, whereas FIU is in the toilet. The Golden Panthers have been a bit better of late (their win came 3 weeks ago over equally inept #120 Southern Miss, 24-23), but the only team that's been able to keep the Pirates from putting up a ton of points was #17 Virginia Tech. Does not bode well for FIU.
5. #49 Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2) vs. #122 New Mexico State (1-7). I wrote before about my love of La-La QB Terrance Broadway's name. The Ragin' Cajuns (also a name I like) are on a 5-game winning streak. Of the five teams Louisiana-Lafayette has defeated, the Independent New Mexico State squad is likely most similar to Nicholls State, the FCS school the Cajuns smacked 70-7. They'll need to be careful not to overlook a non-conference foe in the middle of a title hunt, but I get the feeling that they can overlook NMSU and still be all right.
The Most Watchable:
1. #1 Florida State (7-0) vs. #12 Miami (7-0). Don't get me wrong: I don't expect this to be a nail-biter. FSU should win fairly comfortably; the Hurricanes recent performances (defeating #61 UNC by 4 and #66 Wake Forest by 3) don't exactly inspire confidence. They can be forgiven for looking ahead to this match-up, but I don't think there's a defense out there that can stop Jameis Winston. He looks like the real deal.
2. #16 Michigan (6-1) vs. #25 Michigan State (7-1). These teams are ranked 21 and 22 in the BCS, respectively, so this is definitely a rivalry game that could come down to the wire. There's no secret to this one: Michigan has a high-powered offense and Michigan State has a shut-down defense. UMich should like their chances if they can score more than 21; Michigan State hasn't scored more than 26 against any defense that can be described as "solid."
3. #31 Texas Tech vs #35 Oklahoma State. See above for a description of how close these teams are; both of these teams have a reputation as shoot-out offenses, and this one could get up into the high 40s.
The Single Most Excruciatingly Unbearable Game of the Week:
#36 East Carolina (5-2) vs. #123 Florida International (1-6). In part because the teams are so mismatched, but largely because of Florida International's terrible, terrible statline. They are dead last in the nation in total offense, gaining 219.1 yards per game. There are 77 teams that pass for more than that each contest, and 20 teams that rush for more than that. This is simply a team that can't move the ball. This is true even when the Golden Panthers play bad teams; last week against #112 Louisiana Tech, FIU managed a paltry 197 yards (the fewest La Tech had given up in their seven prior games was 362), average less than 5 yards per pass attempt. Watching this game might make your eyes bleed, or drive you into a deep, contemplative melancholy.
The FBS games this week can be readily broken down into two major categories:
#1 Florida State vs. #12 Miami
-and-
Every Other Game.
Clearly, the match-up in Tallahassee is the highlight of the weekend, with both teams coming in undefeated and ranked in the top 7 of the BCS. We'll all be waiting for the 8 PM kick-off anxiously, to see if Jimbo Fisher's squad can demolish another ACC foe.
Here's how the WEEKLY NCAAF PREVIEW is going to work: I'll give you the games that are:
- The 5 Closest Matches,
- The 5 Biggest Mismatches,
- The 3 Most Watchable (combination of closeness and talent; two similar 7-1 teams playing will be more exciting than two identical 3-5 teams plaing), and
- The Single Most Excruciating.
Armed with such knowledge, it is up which games to enjoy and avoid!
The Closest Matches:
1. #76 San Jose State (4-3) vs. #79 UNLV (5-3). Both of these teams are 3-1 in-conference, but are greatly overshadowed by Fresno State. UNLV has already lost to the Bulldogs, meaning that their MWC title hopes are all-but dashed, but if San Jose State can win this one, there's a good chance the SJSU-Fresno State match-up on November 29th will be a de facto MWC semifinal.
2. #86 Memphis (1-5) vs. #88 Cincinnati (5-2). This is a strange match-up; the Ruby Rankings actually have Memphis as the favorite, despite their sole win. This is largely because Memphis's adjusted strength-of-schedule is 10th hardest out of 126, while Cincinnati's sits in dead last. Those two losses are against teams worse than Memphis. This is a Wednesday night game, which means that I might be the only one paying attention.
3. #47 North Texas (5-3) vs. #51 Rice (6-2). Does anyone remember that Rice hung with #14 Texas A&M in week 1, losing by a respectable 52-31? Nah. Johnny Football didn't play the first half of that one. Since then, though, the Owls have gone 6-1 and cruised to a 4-0 C-USA record. North Texas similarly stuck with #19 Georgia earlier this year before the Bulldogs pulled away to a 24-point win. These two teams have very different styles - Rice is run, run, run, and UNT has a balanced, pass-first attack - but are very similar in quality.
4. #85 Louisiana-Monroe (4-4) vs. #91 Troy (5-3). These are the only two teams that could keep #49 Louisiana-Lafayette from winning the Sun Belt Conference title. The loser of this game will likely be eliminated from such contention.
5. #31 Texas Tech (7-1) vs. #35 Oklahoma State (6-1). Let's face it: everybody paying attention should have expected #9 Oklahoma to take care of Texas Tech last week. They did. That being said, both of these squads are still in Big 12 title contention; neither has played #5 Baylor or #34 Texas, the only two teams without Big 12 losses. Like many of the games above, these teams are in similar enough spots that this match-up will function to eliminate one from championship contention.
The Biggest Mismatches:
1. #14 Texas A&M (6-2) vs. #120 UTEP (1-6). Congratulations to the Miners for trying to improve their strength-of-schedule, or make some quick money, or something. This should be ugly; UTEP is coming off a 38-point loss to Rice, and Texas A&M is going to find the bottom of the C-USA barrel even less resistant than #62 Vanderbilt and #83 Arkansas (who the Aggies beat by a combined 34 points).
2. #4 Ohio State (8-0) vs. #107 Purdue (1-6). After their dismantling of #52 Penn State last week, the Buckeyes should find things even easier against the Boilermakers. Only four teams have managed to put up fewer points per game than Purdue this year, and only four teams have managed to put up more points per game than Ohio State this year. Boom.
3. #38 Northern Illinois (8-0) vs. #124 Massachusetts (1-7). NIU doesn't have to worry about whether they're BCS-worthy this week. They face a Minutemen squad that scores the fewest points per game in the nation (10.9), and is in the bottom-20 in both passing and rushing. Huskies QB Jordan Lynch already has 1,711 yards passing and 1,031 rushing, accounting for 26 TDs. Expect that number to be on the other side of 30 (or 32?) by this time next week.
4. #36 East Carolina (5-2) vs. #123 Florida International (1-6). ECU's in the C-USA East driver's seat, whereas FIU is in the toilet. The Golden Panthers have been a bit better of late (their win came 3 weeks ago over equally inept #120 Southern Miss, 24-23), but the only team that's been able to keep the Pirates from putting up a ton of points was #17 Virginia Tech. Does not bode well for FIU.
5. #49 Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2) vs. #122 New Mexico State (1-7). I wrote before about my love of La-La QB Terrance Broadway's name. The Ragin' Cajuns (also a name I like) are on a 5-game winning streak. Of the five teams Louisiana-Lafayette has defeated, the Independent New Mexico State squad is likely most similar to Nicholls State, the FCS school the Cajuns smacked 70-7. They'll need to be careful not to overlook a non-conference foe in the middle of a title hunt, but I get the feeling that they can overlook NMSU and still be all right.
The Most Watchable:
1. #1 Florida State (7-0) vs. #12 Miami (7-0). Don't get me wrong: I don't expect this to be a nail-biter. FSU should win fairly comfortably; the Hurricanes recent performances (defeating #61 UNC by 4 and #66 Wake Forest by 3) don't exactly inspire confidence. They can be forgiven for looking ahead to this match-up, but I don't think there's a defense out there that can stop Jameis Winston. He looks like the real deal.
2. #16 Michigan (6-1) vs. #25 Michigan State (7-1). These teams are ranked 21 and 22 in the BCS, respectively, so this is definitely a rivalry game that could come down to the wire. There's no secret to this one: Michigan has a high-powered offense and Michigan State has a shut-down defense. UMich should like their chances if they can score more than 21; Michigan State hasn't scored more than 26 against any defense that can be described as "solid."
3. #31 Texas Tech vs #35 Oklahoma State. See above for a description of how close these teams are; both of these teams have a reputation as shoot-out offenses, and this one could get up into the high 40s.
The Single Most Excruciatingly Unbearable Game of the Week:
#36 East Carolina (5-2) vs. #123 Florida International (1-6). In part because the teams are so mismatched, but largely because of Florida International's terrible, terrible statline. They are dead last in the nation in total offense, gaining 219.1 yards per game. There are 77 teams that pass for more than that each contest, and 20 teams that rush for more than that. This is simply a team that can't move the ball. This is true even when the Golden Panthers play bad teams; last week against #112 Louisiana Tech, FIU managed a paltry 197 yards (the fewest La Tech had given up in their seven prior games was 362), average less than 5 yards per pass attempt. Watching this game might make your eyes bleed, or drive you into a deep, contemplative melancholy.
Monday, October 28, 2013
2014 Ruby Rankings: NCAAF FBS Rankings (Week 9)
Here's the Ruby Rankings after NCAAF Week 9! This is the second edition of the Rankings.
This year's first rankings, with a description of methodology, can be found HERE!
The basics are as follows:
1) The 126 FBS teams are roughly scaled from 0 (a bottom-five, roughly winless team) to 1000 (a BCS Championship Favorite).
2) The ranking takes into account wins/losses, strength of schedule, and statistics.
3) The rankings are updated weekly.
WEEK 9 RUBY RANKINGS:
Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score (RANK Change from Last Week)
1. Florida State (7-0): 979 (=)
2. Oregon (8-0): 949 (=)
3. Alabama (8-0): 911 (=)
4. Ohio State (8-0): 880 (+2)
5. Baylor (7-0): 854 (=)
6. Missouri (7-1): 830 (-2)
7. Stanford (7-1): 821 (=)
8. Arizona State (5-2): 812 (=)
9. Oklahoma (7-1): 807 (+3)
10. Clemson (7-1): 785 (=)
11. Auburn (7-1): 781 (+3)
12. Miami (FL) (7-0): 778 (+1)
13. BYU (6-2): 762 (+6)
14. Texas A&M (6-2): 743 (+6)
15. Louisville (7-1): 730 (=)
16. Michigan (6-1): 728 (+2)
17. Virginia Tech (6-2): 724 (-6)
18. UCLA (5-2): 707 (-9)
19. Georgia (4-3): 703 (-2)
20. LSU (7-2): 697 (-4)
21. South Carolina (6-2): 694 (+6)
22. Houston (6-1): 687 (+19)
23. Wisconsin (5-2): 684 (-2)
24. Mississippi (5-3): 677 (+5)
25. Michigan State (7-1): 670 (+9)
26. Washington (5-3): 669 (-2)
27. Notre Dame (6-2): 668 (-2)
28. Florida (4-3): 665 (-2)
29. Arizona (5-2): 660 (+11)
30. Mississippi State (4-3): 659 (+8)
31. Texas Tech (7-1): 658 (-9)
32. Georgia Tech (5-3): 657 (-2)
33. UCF (6-1): 656 (-10)
34. Texas (5-2): 638 (+11)
35. Oklahoma State (6-1): 625 (+1)
36. East Carolina (5-2): 622 (+1)
37. USC (5-3): 617 (+7)
38. Northern Illinois (8-0): 609 (-3)
39. Minnesota (6-2): 592 (+18)
40. Fresno State (7-0): 580 (-8)
41. Iowa (5-3): 580 (+5)
42. Duke (6-2): 580 (+8)
43. Utah (4-4): 579 (-12)
44. Nebraska (5-2): 577 (-16)
45. Oregon State (6-2): 568 (-6)
46. Pittsburgh (4-3): 548 (-13)
47. North Texas (5-3): 541 (+5)
48. Tennessee (4-4): 538 (-5)
49. Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2): 527 (+14)
50. Ball State (8-1): 520 (+4)
51. Rice (6-2): 518 (+9)
52. Penn State (4-3): 516 (-10)
53. Indiana (3-4): 514 (-2)
54. Toledo (5-3): 506 (+12)
55. Maryland (5-3): 493 (-7)
56. Boise State (5-3): 489 (-7)
57. Utah State (4-4): 488 (+1)
58. Ohio (6-2): 471 (-3)
59. Marshall (4-3): 466 (-12)
60. Navy (4-3): 461 (+16)
61. North Carolina (2-5): 461 (+16)
62. Vanderbilt (4-4): 452 (-9)
63. Washington State (4-4): 452 (+1)
64. TCU (3-5): 451 (-8)
65. Northwestern (4-4): 439 (+4)
66. Wake Forest (4-4): 436 (+1)
67. Buffalo (6-2): 430 (+7)
68. Rutgers (4-3): 422 (-7)
69. Colorado (3-4): 422 (-10)
70. Tulane (6-2): 418 (+8)
71. Bowling Green (5-3): 417 (-6)
72. Virginia (2-6): 400 (-2)
73. Syracuse (3-4): 397 (=)
74. North Carolina State (3-4): 395 (+1)
75. Kansas State (3-4): 395 (+14)
76. San Jose State (4-3): 386 (+9)
77. Western Kentucky (4-4): 384 (-5)
78. Boston College (3-4): 383 (-16)
79. UNLV (5-3): 382 (+5)
80. Arkansas State (3-4): 365 (-9)
81. West Virginia (3-5): 358 (-13)
82. Texas State (5-3): 355 (+5)
83. Arkansas (3-5): 351 (-2)
84. Florida Atlantic (2-6): 347 (-4)
85. Louisiana-Monroe (4-4): 339 (+3)
86. Memphis (1-5): 335 (+5)
87. South Alabama (3-4): 332 (-8)
88. Cincinnati (5-2): 329 (-6)
89. UTSA (3-5): 320 (+10)
90. Middle Tennessee (4-4): 318 (+15)
91. Troy (5-3): 313 (+7)
92. Colorado State (4-4): 300 (+1)
93. Wyoming (4-4): 293 (-7)
94. Illinois (3-4): 289 (-11)
95. SMU (3-4): 288 (-1)
96. San Diego State (3-4): 281 (+8)
97. Old Dominion (5-3): 276 (-7)
98. Army (3-5): 275 (-3)
99. Kansas (2-5): 267 (-2)
100. Nevada (3-5): 263 (-8)
101. Kentucky (1-6): 263 (-5)
102. Tulsa (2-5): 261 (-2)
103. Akron (2-7): 244 (-2)
104. Central Michigan (3-5): 239 (-1)
105. Iowa State (1-6): 211 (+1)
106. California (1-7): 202 (-4)
107. Purdue (1-6): 185 (=)
108. Kent State (2-7): 172 (=)
109. South Florida (2-5): 164 (+1)
110. New Mexico (2-5): 140 (+1)
111. Louisiana Tech (3-5): 134 (+4)
112. UAB (2-5): 132 (-3)
113. Hawai'i (0-7): 106 (-1)
114. Temple (1-7): 89 (=)
115. Eastern Michigan (1-7): 83 (+1)
116. Idaho (1-7): 70 (-3)
117. Air Force (1-7): 60 (+1)
118. Connecticut (0-7): 46 (+1)
119. UTEP (1-6): 28 (+1)
120. Southern Miss (0-7): 17 (-3)
121. Western Michigan (1-8): 6 (+1)
122. New Mexico State (1-7): -66 (+2)
123. Florida International (1-6): -70 (-2)
124. Massachusetts (1-7): -85 (-1)
125. Georgia State (0-8): -132 (=)
126. Miami (OH) (0-8): -153 (=)
Big Movers and Other Notes
#18 UCLA falls 9 spots after its 28-point loss to #2 Oregon. This might be a little harsh, because I don't think anyone expected UCLA to stick with the Ducks as long as they did (it was 14-14 at halftime), and they actually held Oregon to their lowest point total of the year (42, which is ridiculous). But for the second straight week, UCLA was pretty soundly dominated in the end. Oregon held the Bruins, who came into the game averaging 302 yards through the air, to a paltry 64 passing yards on 19 attempts (13 completions). UCLA is likely better than #18, but they'll need to string a few wins together to prove it to the computer.
#22 Houston jumps a whopping 19 spots after smacking #68 Rutgers 49-14 in Piscataway. Houston was aided by a 6-0 turnover margin, and and flexed their muscles with 400 passing yards against a team whose only prior losses were by 1 point, in OT, against undefeated #40 Fresno State and by a closer-than-the-score-indicated 14 against #15 Louisville. For their part, Houston's only loss was 47-46 to #13 BYU last week in the Battle of the Cougars; they came out angry and showed that they, and not Louisville, are in the AAC Driver's Seat. Houston faces UCF and Louisville back-to-back next month.
#33 UCF falls 10 spots... after a 45-point win? That can't be right. Unfortunately, though, that's one of the issues with an RPI-based system: when you play a godawful team, you can't beat them bad enough to make up for the blow they deal to your strength-of-schedule. #118 Connecticut is the worst BCS-Conference team this year, and they've been downright horrendous. UCF should jump back up (notice that the difference between #25 Michigan State and UCF is 14 points, which is incredibly tiny) to the top 20 if they can beat Houston in two weeks.
#39 Minnesota climbs 18 spots and #44 Nebraska falls 16 after the former beat the latter 34-23. This was an eye-opening result for me, because through their first seven games the Golden Gophers had soundly defeated the five bad teams they'd played and been soundly defeated by the two good teams they'd played. If you've been paying attention, you know that Minnesota finds themselves without their Head Coach, Jerry Kill, who is on an indefinite leave of absence to treat his epilepsy.
#49 Louisiana-Lafayette climbs 14 spots into the top 50. With a QB named Terrance Broadway, they have to be ready for the spotlight. Despite opening the season with back-to-back losses against BCS teams that, quite possible, the Ragin' Cajuns should have defeated (#83 Arkansas and #75 Kansas State), La-La should have an easy time ripping through the Sun Belt; the toughest of the five teams remaining on their schedule is #82 Texas State.
TOP/BOTTOM 10
Statistical Profiles:
1. #5 Baylor
2. #2 Oregon
3. #1 Florida State
4. #15 Louisville
5. #4 Ohio State
6. #23 Wisconsin
7. #3 Alabama
8. #25 Michigan State
9. #22 Houston
10. #12 Miami (FL)
...
117. #124 Massachusetts
118. #107 Purdue
119. #125 Georgia State
120. #121 Western Michigan
121. #115 Eastern Michigan
122. #126 Miami (OH)
123. #123 Florida International
124. #116 Idaho
125. #120 Southern Miss
126. #122 New Mexico State
RPI Profiles:
1. #7 Stanford
2. #3 Alabama
3. #1 Florida State
4. #9 Oklahoma
5. #6 Missouri
6. #19 Georgia
7. #11 Auburn
8. #2 Oregon
9. #4 Ohio State
10. #10 Clemson
...
117. #121 Western Michigan
118. #111 Louisiana Tech
119. #110 New Mexico
120. #117 Air Force
121. #122 New Mexico State
122. #123 Florida International
123. #119 UTEP
124. #124 Massachusetts
125. #126 Miami (OH)
126. #125 Georgia State
Adjusted Strength-of-Schedule
1. #19 Georgia
2. #107 Purdue
3. #61 North Carolina
4. #72 Virginia
5. #69 Colorado
6. #53 Indiana
7. #103 Akron
8. #106 California
9. #30 Mississippi State
10. #86 Memphis
...
117. #111 Louisiana Tech
118. #25 Michigan State
119. #40 Fresno State
120. #35 Oklahoma State
121. #67 Buffalo
122. #71 Bowling Green
123. #97 Old Dominion
124. #50 Ball State
125. #38 Northern Illinois
126. #88 Cincinnati
A few thoughts on games I watched:
- Part of what's good about computer rankings is that they don't take subjective evaluation into account; part of what's bad about computer rankings is that they don't take subjective evaluation into account. The BCS Computers currently have Fresno State ranked 15th. After watching them try to out-lackluster San Diego State in the wee hours of Sunday morning, that seems patently ridiculous.
- Note that my rankings have Northern Illinois #38. Both Polls have them 20th. The Computer Average has them 13th. This is where the rubber of my argument against ignoring things like margins of victory hits the road, so to speak. I am an enormous fan of Jeff Sagarin's rankings, which he does for USA Today. His football rankings are one of the 6 used in the BCS computation. Sagarin actually provides a Pure ELO Ranking, which doesn't take margin of victory into account, and, as he says, is good at "retro-fitting the W-L results," and a Predictive Ranking.
His Predictive Ranking has Northern Illinois 51st (out of 251 FBS and FCS teams). The Pure ELO - which is what the BCS uses - has Northern Illinois 3rd. That the BCS includes a computer system that ranks Northern Illinois third in the nation (their best win this year is a 30-27 Opening Week victory over Iowa) shows why the BCS had to be terminated with extreme prejudice.
- The discerning reader will notice that, although Florida State's rank remained the same, their score dropped precipitously, from 1042 to 979. This is simply a result of regression to the mean: there is no team in the country with a "true talent level" of "beating Clemson by 37"; in order to keep from coming back down to earth, FSU would've had to beat NC State by upwards of 80. They sure as hell could have, but kudos to Jimbo Fisher for taking the pedal off the gas at halftime.
- The Ohio State win over Penn State really showed that the Buckeyes are not pretenders to the crown. Not that Penn State is a fantastic team, but OSU's dismantling of the Nittany Lions showed that this team is as good now as they've been with Urban Meyer at the helm. I would not be even a little bit surprised if Florida State, Oregon, Alabama, and Ohio State all finish the season undefeated. Not even a little bit.
This year's first rankings, with a description of methodology, can be found HERE!
The basics are as follows:
1) The 126 FBS teams are roughly scaled from 0 (a bottom-five, roughly winless team) to 1000 (a BCS Championship Favorite).
2) The ranking takes into account wins/losses, strength of schedule, and statistics.
3) The rankings are updated weekly.
WEEK 9 RUBY RANKINGS:
Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score (RANK Change from Last Week)
1. Florida State (7-0): 979 (=)
2. Oregon (8-0): 949 (=)
3. Alabama (8-0): 911 (=)
4. Ohio State (8-0): 880 (+2)
5. Baylor (7-0): 854 (=)
6. Missouri (7-1): 830 (-2)
7. Stanford (7-1): 821 (=)
8. Arizona State (5-2): 812 (=)
9. Oklahoma (7-1): 807 (+3)
10. Clemson (7-1): 785 (=)
11. Auburn (7-1): 781 (+3)
12. Miami (FL) (7-0): 778 (+1)
13. BYU (6-2): 762 (+6)
14. Texas A&M (6-2): 743 (+6)
15. Louisville (7-1): 730 (=)
16. Michigan (6-1): 728 (+2)
17. Virginia Tech (6-2): 724 (-6)
18. UCLA (5-2): 707 (-9)
19. Georgia (4-3): 703 (-2)
20. LSU (7-2): 697 (-4)
21. South Carolina (6-2): 694 (+6)
22. Houston (6-1): 687 (+19)
23. Wisconsin (5-2): 684 (-2)
24. Mississippi (5-3): 677 (+5)
25. Michigan State (7-1): 670 (+9)
26. Washington (5-3): 669 (-2)
27. Notre Dame (6-2): 668 (-2)
28. Florida (4-3): 665 (-2)
29. Arizona (5-2): 660 (+11)
30. Mississippi State (4-3): 659 (+8)
31. Texas Tech (7-1): 658 (-9)
32. Georgia Tech (5-3): 657 (-2)
33. UCF (6-1): 656 (-10)
34. Texas (5-2): 638 (+11)
35. Oklahoma State (6-1): 625 (+1)
36. East Carolina (5-2): 622 (+1)
37. USC (5-3): 617 (+7)
38. Northern Illinois (8-0): 609 (-3)
39. Minnesota (6-2): 592 (+18)
40. Fresno State (7-0): 580 (-8)
41. Iowa (5-3): 580 (+5)
42. Duke (6-2): 580 (+8)
43. Utah (4-4): 579 (-12)
44. Nebraska (5-2): 577 (-16)
45. Oregon State (6-2): 568 (-6)
46. Pittsburgh (4-3): 548 (-13)
47. North Texas (5-3): 541 (+5)
48. Tennessee (4-4): 538 (-5)
49. Louisiana-Lafayette (5-2): 527 (+14)
50. Ball State (8-1): 520 (+4)
51. Rice (6-2): 518 (+9)
52. Penn State (4-3): 516 (-10)
53. Indiana (3-4): 514 (-2)
54. Toledo (5-3): 506 (+12)
55. Maryland (5-3): 493 (-7)
56. Boise State (5-3): 489 (-7)
57. Utah State (4-4): 488 (+1)
58. Ohio (6-2): 471 (-3)
59. Marshall (4-3): 466 (-12)
60. Navy (4-3): 461 (+16)
61. North Carolina (2-5): 461 (+16)
62. Vanderbilt (4-4): 452 (-9)
63. Washington State (4-4): 452 (+1)
64. TCU (3-5): 451 (-8)
65. Northwestern (4-4): 439 (+4)
66. Wake Forest (4-4): 436 (+1)
67. Buffalo (6-2): 430 (+7)
68. Rutgers (4-3): 422 (-7)
69. Colorado (3-4): 422 (-10)
70. Tulane (6-2): 418 (+8)
71. Bowling Green (5-3): 417 (-6)
72. Virginia (2-6): 400 (-2)
73. Syracuse (3-4): 397 (=)
74. North Carolina State (3-4): 395 (+1)
75. Kansas State (3-4): 395 (+14)
76. San Jose State (4-3): 386 (+9)
77. Western Kentucky (4-4): 384 (-5)
78. Boston College (3-4): 383 (-16)
79. UNLV (5-3): 382 (+5)
80. Arkansas State (3-4): 365 (-9)
81. West Virginia (3-5): 358 (-13)
82. Texas State (5-3): 355 (+5)
83. Arkansas (3-5): 351 (-2)
84. Florida Atlantic (2-6): 347 (-4)
85. Louisiana-Monroe (4-4): 339 (+3)
86. Memphis (1-5): 335 (+5)
87. South Alabama (3-4): 332 (-8)
88. Cincinnati (5-2): 329 (-6)
89. UTSA (3-5): 320 (+10)
90. Middle Tennessee (4-4): 318 (+15)
91. Troy (5-3): 313 (+7)
92. Colorado State (4-4): 300 (+1)
93. Wyoming (4-4): 293 (-7)
94. Illinois (3-4): 289 (-11)
95. SMU (3-4): 288 (-1)
96. San Diego State (3-4): 281 (+8)
97. Old Dominion (5-3): 276 (-7)
98. Army (3-5): 275 (-3)
99. Kansas (2-5): 267 (-2)
100. Nevada (3-5): 263 (-8)
101. Kentucky (1-6): 263 (-5)
102. Tulsa (2-5): 261 (-2)
103. Akron (2-7): 244 (-2)
104. Central Michigan (3-5): 239 (-1)
105. Iowa State (1-6): 211 (+1)
106. California (1-7): 202 (-4)
107. Purdue (1-6): 185 (=)
108. Kent State (2-7): 172 (=)
109. South Florida (2-5): 164 (+1)
110. New Mexico (2-5): 140 (+1)
111. Louisiana Tech (3-5): 134 (+4)
112. UAB (2-5): 132 (-3)
113. Hawai'i (0-7): 106 (-1)
114. Temple (1-7): 89 (=)
115. Eastern Michigan (1-7): 83 (+1)
116. Idaho (1-7): 70 (-3)
117. Air Force (1-7): 60 (+1)
118. Connecticut (0-7): 46 (+1)
119. UTEP (1-6): 28 (+1)
120. Southern Miss (0-7): 17 (-3)
121. Western Michigan (1-8): 6 (+1)
122. New Mexico State (1-7): -66 (+2)
123. Florida International (1-6): -70 (-2)
124. Massachusetts (1-7): -85 (-1)
125. Georgia State (0-8): -132 (=)
126. Miami (OH) (0-8): -153 (=)
Big Movers and Other Notes
#18 UCLA falls 9 spots after its 28-point loss to #2 Oregon. This might be a little harsh, because I don't think anyone expected UCLA to stick with the Ducks as long as they did (it was 14-14 at halftime), and they actually held Oregon to their lowest point total of the year (42, which is ridiculous). But for the second straight week, UCLA was pretty soundly dominated in the end. Oregon held the Bruins, who came into the game averaging 302 yards through the air, to a paltry 64 passing yards on 19 attempts (13 completions). UCLA is likely better than #18, but they'll need to string a few wins together to prove it to the computer.
#22 Houston jumps a whopping 19 spots after smacking #68 Rutgers 49-14 in Piscataway. Houston was aided by a 6-0 turnover margin, and and flexed their muscles with 400 passing yards against a team whose only prior losses were by 1 point, in OT, against undefeated #40 Fresno State and by a closer-than-the-score-indicated 14 against #15 Louisville. For their part, Houston's only loss was 47-46 to #13 BYU last week in the Battle of the Cougars; they came out angry and showed that they, and not Louisville, are in the AAC Driver's Seat. Houston faces UCF and Louisville back-to-back next month.
#33 UCF falls 10 spots... after a 45-point win? That can't be right. Unfortunately, though, that's one of the issues with an RPI-based system: when you play a godawful team, you can't beat them bad enough to make up for the blow they deal to your strength-of-schedule. #118 Connecticut is the worst BCS-Conference team this year, and they've been downright horrendous. UCF should jump back up (notice that the difference between #25 Michigan State and UCF is 14 points, which is incredibly tiny) to the top 20 if they can beat Houston in two weeks.
#39 Minnesota climbs 18 spots and #44 Nebraska falls 16 after the former beat the latter 34-23. This was an eye-opening result for me, because through their first seven games the Golden Gophers had soundly defeated the five bad teams they'd played and been soundly defeated by the two good teams they'd played. If you've been paying attention, you know that Minnesota finds themselves without their Head Coach, Jerry Kill, who is on an indefinite leave of absence to treat his epilepsy.
#49 Louisiana-Lafayette climbs 14 spots into the top 50. With a QB named Terrance Broadway, they have to be ready for the spotlight. Despite opening the season with back-to-back losses against BCS teams that, quite possible, the Ragin' Cajuns should have defeated (#83 Arkansas and #75 Kansas State), La-La should have an easy time ripping through the Sun Belt; the toughest of the five teams remaining on their schedule is #82 Texas State.
TOP/BOTTOM 10
Statistical Profiles:
1. #5 Baylor
2. #2 Oregon
3. #1 Florida State
4. #15 Louisville
5. #4 Ohio State
6. #23 Wisconsin
7. #3 Alabama
8. #25 Michigan State
9. #22 Houston
10. #12 Miami (FL)
...
117. #124 Massachusetts
118. #107 Purdue
119. #125 Georgia State
120. #121 Western Michigan
121. #115 Eastern Michigan
122. #126 Miami (OH)
123. #123 Florida International
124. #116 Idaho
125. #120 Southern Miss
126. #122 New Mexico State
RPI Profiles:
1. #7 Stanford
2. #3 Alabama
3. #1 Florida State
4. #9 Oklahoma
5. #6 Missouri
6. #19 Georgia
7. #11 Auburn
8. #2 Oregon
9. #4 Ohio State
10. #10 Clemson
...
117. #121 Western Michigan
118. #111 Louisiana Tech
119. #110 New Mexico
120. #117 Air Force
121. #122 New Mexico State
122. #123 Florida International
123. #119 UTEP
124. #124 Massachusetts
125. #126 Miami (OH)
126. #125 Georgia State
Adjusted Strength-of-Schedule
1. #19 Georgia
2. #107 Purdue
3. #61 North Carolina
4. #72 Virginia
5. #69 Colorado
6. #53 Indiana
7. #103 Akron
8. #106 California
9. #30 Mississippi State
10. #86 Memphis
...
117. #111 Louisiana Tech
118. #25 Michigan State
119. #40 Fresno State
120. #35 Oklahoma State
121. #67 Buffalo
122. #71 Bowling Green
123. #97 Old Dominion
124. #50 Ball State
125. #38 Northern Illinois
126. #88 Cincinnati
A few thoughts on games I watched:
- Part of what's good about computer rankings is that they don't take subjective evaluation into account; part of what's bad about computer rankings is that they don't take subjective evaluation into account. The BCS Computers currently have Fresno State ranked 15th. After watching them try to out-lackluster San Diego State in the wee hours of Sunday morning, that seems patently ridiculous.
- Note that my rankings have Northern Illinois #38. Both Polls have them 20th. The Computer Average has them 13th. This is where the rubber of my argument against ignoring things like margins of victory hits the road, so to speak. I am an enormous fan of Jeff Sagarin's rankings, which he does for USA Today. His football rankings are one of the 6 used in the BCS computation. Sagarin actually provides a Pure ELO Ranking, which doesn't take margin of victory into account, and, as he says, is good at "retro-fitting the W-L results," and a Predictive Ranking.
His Predictive Ranking has Northern Illinois 51st (out of 251 FBS and FCS teams). The Pure ELO - which is what the BCS uses - has Northern Illinois 3rd. That the BCS includes a computer system that ranks Northern Illinois third in the nation (their best win this year is a 30-27 Opening Week victory over Iowa) shows why the BCS had to be terminated with extreme prejudice.
- The discerning reader will notice that, although Florida State's rank remained the same, their score dropped precipitously, from 1042 to 979. This is simply a result of regression to the mean: there is no team in the country with a "true talent level" of "beating Clemson by 37"; in order to keep from coming back down to earth, FSU would've had to beat NC State by upwards of 80. They sure as hell could have, but kudos to Jimbo Fisher for taking the pedal off the gas at halftime.
- The Ohio State win over Penn State really showed that the Buckeyes are not pretenders to the crown. Not that Penn State is a fantastic team, but OSU's dismantling of the Nittany Lions showed that this team is as good now as they've been with Urban Meyer at the helm. I would not be even a little bit surprised if Florida State, Oregon, Alabama, and Ohio State all finish the season undefeated. Not even a little bit.
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