Hey everyone. The 11th week of the 2013-14 College Football season is underway, and that means we're far enough along that we're narrowed down to 4 or 5 title contenders but not far enough along that the BCS's nightmare scenario, 4-or-5-undefeated teams at the end of the season, has become an impossibility. Clearly, the games tonight will go a long way towards a resolution.
Today I'll give you:
- The Three Best Games
- The Three Closest Games
- The Three Biggest Mismatches
and
- The Worst, Most Horrible, Most Unwatchable Game of the Week.
All rankings referred to, unless otherwise noted, are RUBY RANKINGS, which can be found HERE.
BEST GAMES:
1. #2 Oregon at #8 Stanford
Obviously, this is an incredible match-up. Oregon has the second-best statistical profile behind #5 Baylor (see Best Game #2, below): they're 2nd in the nation in rushing, 2nd in scoring offense, 8th in scoring defense, and they limp to the barn with only the 20th-best passing offense in the country. The closest anyone's been able to get against them is 21, when #23 Washington pushed them to a 45-24 victory (it was 31-24 after three quarters).
Stanford, on the other hand, has the very best RPI component in the country; they've played a legitimately difficult schedule (27th hardest, by my estimation), reflecting a Pac-12 that, even without #25 USC contending for a title, is as good as it's ever been. Last year, of course, Stanford ended Oregon's BCS Championship hopes, paving the way for Alabama to Roll Tide to the title.
This should definitely be Oregon's closest game of the season; if it's not, they'll have a darn good claim on that Number 2 spot in the BCS. Stanford hasn't held a team under 10 so far this season (not bloody likely they'll do so against the Ducks), but they haven't allowed more than 28 either. The question is whether their offense can keep it close for 4 quarters, as Oregon will get its TDs.
I say the Ducks once again pull away in the 4th.
Oregon 34, Stanford 24.
2. #10 Oklahoma at #5 Baylor
To say Baylor is untested would be an understatement. They most difficult team they've played this season is #65 Kansas State; that was also the game in which they looked extremely vulnerable, trailing 25-21 before putting up 14 in the 4th quarter to win by 10. I detailed Baylor's ridiculous statistical profile at the bottom of this page. The numbers they're putting up are unreal, but they've been doing so against sub-par competition. Their Strength of Schedule is 11th-easiest.
Oklahoma, on the other hand, has defeated #21 Notre Dame and #34 Texas Tech, the latter of which was undefeated and flying high when OU took them down a notch. I am almost willing to completely excuse Oklahoma's loss to #33 Texas: in a major rivalry, one team came in needing - not really, really, badly wanting, needing - a win to avoid watching their season and program crumble apart. There are a lot of one-loss teams out there whose loss has been to a worse team than Texas (like Stanford).
Although the numbers - and the Ruby Rankings - say otherwise, I'm not quite prepared to believe that Baylor's ready for Prime Time. If they can win this game, though, they're clear Big 12 favorites and will prove that they're the fifth - and final, by my estimation - true contender for the national title.
Oklahoma 51, Baylor 38
3. #11 BYU at #20 Wisconsin
Don't be fooled by the BCS rankings, in which Wisconsin is 24th and BYU is unranked. This game is a diamond in the rough.
Brigham Young started the season 1-2 with losses to #80 Virginia (looks awful in hindsight) and #41 Utah (looks not so bad in hindsight; see Stanford, above). Since then, they're 5-0, and have defeated four top-50 teams in a row (#47 Utah State, #24 Georgia Tech, #29 Houston, and #50 Boise State). This defense is good, and is led by Kyle Van Noy, who projects to be a mid-first round pick in next year's NFL draft.
On the other side of the field will be Wisconsin, a squad that always seems to win and look bad doing it. The Badgers are 6-2 this year, but they should be 7-1; a late-game gaffe by the officiating crew cost them the game against #7 Arizona State (another team that is seriously underrated). Their only other loss was by a touchdown to #4 Ohio State, which has been smacking down teams left and right this year. So. Two losses, combined 9 points, to two top-10 teams. And these guys are ranked only 24th in the BCS? Their 29-point win against #66 Northwestern doesn't look particularly special, but remember that NW was 4-0 and ranked 16th in the nation when they went into Madison.
I like BYU in this one, but it'll be close.
BYU 24, Wisconsin 21
CLOSEST GAMES:
1. #29 Houston at #30 UCF
This should be a fantastic contest. Houston's high-powered passing attack going against the speed of UCF. Note that both of these teams control their own AAC destinies: if either of these teams wins out, that team, and not #14 Louisville, will go to a BCS game. Probably to get destroyed, but, who knows?
The path is easier for UCF, who has already defeated Louisville. If they take care of Houston on Saturday night, their biggest remaining challenge will be... #69 Rutgers. Houston, on the other hand, faces Louisville next week.
I like Houston in a very high scoring, very fun-to-watch game.
Houston 48, UCF 38
2. #112 Air Force at #113 New Mexico
This... should be... a little less fantastic. Air Force started their season with a 38-15 win over FCS opponent Colgate, but lost 7 straight before besting #102 Army last week. New Mexico also has two wins, but they're no more impressive; UNM has taken care of #120 UTEP (in Overtime!) and #122 New Mexico State.
Interestingly enough, these teams run very similar offenses; Air Force is 11th in the country in rushing (122nd in passing) and New Mexico is 3rd in the country in rushing (and 120th in passing).
This isn't an unstoppable object hitting an immovable force. It's more like... a fragile projectile contacting a flimsy barricade. We'll call this one for the home team.
UNM 33, Air Force 29
3. #76 Arkansas State at #79 Louisiana-Monroe
A battle of Sun Belt... ahem... "heavyweights." Both of these schools have a single loss in-conference, and are the only two that could keep #46 Louisiana-Lafayette from winning the conference, and the prestigious right to face... not making this up... the #6 team from the C-USA in the New Orleans Bowl (right now, that projects to be #81 Middle Tennessee). Herp derp.
Both of these teams have actually played good schedules; Arkansas State has fallen to #12 Auburn and #6 Missouri, while Louisiana-Monroe has been defeated by Oklahoma and Baylor. Both of these squads will at least have enough experience to realize that their foes aren't exactly SEC or Big 12 competition.
We'll give it to ULM, in the hope that this year's edition of the annual, last-week match-up between Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana-Lafayette will have something more than state pride on the line.
ULM 30, Arkansas State 21.
BIGGEST MISMATCHES
1. FCS Appalachian State at #17 Georgia
We all remember Appalachian State's shocking defeat of then-number-5 Michigan to begin the 2007 season; the Mountaineers had won the last two FCS Championships, and would win a third in a row that year. Yeah. Those days are over. Appalachian State is now in its last FCS, preparing for a transition to the FBS, and doing a poor job of it: they're 2-7 this year.
Georgia's also been disappointing, but they've been compared against a very different standard. Hoping for an SEC title, they fell to #9 Clemson in week 1, (not a bad loss by any means, and not an SEC loss), #6 Missouri (not a bad loss by any means), and #61 Vanderbilt (oooh kay; for Georgia, yeah, this is a bad loss).
At any rate, this one should be the equivalent of a walk-through as Georgia prepares to go to Auburn next week.
Georgia 50, Appalachian State 7.
2. #14 Louisville at #118 Connecticut
I've written about both of these teams at length; Louisville is a very strong team, and Connecticut is the only BCS Conference team without a win.
Louisville 44, Connecticut 3.
3. #1 Florida State at #77 Wake Forest
At least Wake Forest won't have a long plane ride home. Florida State took care of #13 Miami pretty handily, even with Jameis Winston throwing two first-half interceptions. Wake Forest's best win was over #57 Maryland, and although that's nothing to scoff at, they're also coming off a shutout loss to #67 Syracuse.
Not looking good for the Demon Deacons.
Florida State 54, Wake Forest 17.
WORST, MOST HORRIBLE, MOST UNWATCHABLE GAME OF THE WEEK
#121 Western Michigan at #117 Eastern Michigan
Oh dear lord, kill it with fire. Both of these teams are 1-8, so at least this rivalry game should be evenly matched. Western Michigan got its first win last week, 31-30, over #124 Massachusetts. Eastern Michigan, however, has lost 8 straight; they won their first game over FCS Howard (34-24).
Eastern Michigan in a close one.
EMU -18, WMU -21.
CHECK BACK ON MONDAY FOR THE UPDATED RUBY RANKINGS.
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