RUBY RANKINGS Week 13!!! College Football FBS Rankings!!!

Welcome back, everyone!

Sometimes, when you're doing stats, something just doesn't come out right. You see the results with your own eyes, and then you look at the numbers, and it just doesn't add up. You hope you've made a mistake in the calculation, but, sure enough, you haven't. You start thinking, "are there other tests I can do to make these numbers come out better?" At that point, you're lost.

Just give me a moment here. It looks like I might be admitting to a loss of all credibility, but that's the opposite of the truth. What I mean to say is this: Despite a 32-point (road) loss on Saturday, the Baylor Bears remain the #2 team in the Ruby Rankings.

How in the world can that be?

There are a lot of answers to that question, but here are the ones that are the most important, interesting, and illustrative of what goes into ranking systems such as my own.

1. The Oklahoma State Cowboys are very good. This doesn't excuse a huge loss by itself, but let's look at the seven other 1-loss teams and see whether the team that beat them was better or worse than Oklahoma State:

Missouri: South Carolina. Even.
Auburn: LSU. Not as good as OKST.
Clemson: FSU. Better than OKST.
Oklahoma State: West Virginia. Wayyy worse than OKST.
Michigan State: Notre Dame. Worse than OKST.
UCF: South Carolina. Split again.
Louisville: UCF. Worse than OKST.


Now, let's be honest: all but one of those games was a lot closer than 32 points. But in terms of pure team ranking (ignoring stats for the moment, like most ranking systems), the only difference between Baylor's loss and the other teams' losses is that Baylor's happened this past weekend.

2. Baylor was already being punished by my system - heavily, I might add - for playing a weak schedule. What that means, though, is that when Baylor plays a good team, their drop in statistics will be offset by a slight reduction in punishment based on strength of schedule. For reference, before Baylor started this 3-game kick against OU, TT, and OKST, their strength of schedule was 116th out of 126. It's now shot up all the way to 65th. Basically, the ratings are reflecting that even though Baylor's profile is worse now than it was, we're a lot more confident in it.

3. The teams around Baylor didn't help themselves. Listen, there's just no scenario in which an RPI/Stats system like mine is going to reward Alabama for beating up on Chattanooga. A game like that means absolutely nothing. Don't worry: Alabama will have plenty of opportunity to pass Baylor (and Ohio State, which jumped the Crimson Tide as well this week). If they can beat Auburn and Missouri, they'll get the #2 ranking they deserve. If they can't, well... we'll see.

4. Baylor's rating did drop dramatically; their rank didn't. This is a key distinction. My rating system is ultimately scaled loosely from 0 to 1000. Baylor's rating fell from 943 to 888 - that's a huge drop - but they had a big enough cushion that they remained, barely, ahead of everyone else. As mentioned above, Alabama dropped too, but has a much better chance that Baylor to climb back up.

Ultimately, my system tries to walk a fine line between being retrodictive and predictive; that is, I'm trying to capture both what a team's done up to this point and what they're likely to do in the future. What that means is that the system can't have a knee-jerk reaction to even a bad loss (or a great win), but it's also not going to perfectly capture the true "essence" of how good a team is, whatever that means. Do I think Baylor is better than Alabama right now? No. Do I think that, by the end of the season, Alabama will be well ahead of Baylor? Yes. But I don't think it's impossible that I'm wrong about that.

Now, onto the rankings!


The basics of the RUBY RANKINGS are as follows:
1) The 126 FBS teams are roughly scaled from 0 (a bottom-five, roughly winless team) to 1000 (a BCS Championship Favorite).
2) The ranking takes into account wins/losses, strength of schedule, and statistics.
3) The rankings are updated weekly.
WEEK 13 RUBY RANKINGS:

Ranking #. Team (W-L): Score (RANK Change from Last Week)

1. Florida State (11-0): 967 (=)
2. Baylor (9-1): 888 (=)
3. Ohio State (11-0): 875 (+2)
4. Alabama (11-0): 857 (-1)
5. Arizona State (9-2): 855 (+2)
6. Missouri (10-1): 843 (=)
7. Wisconsin (9-2): 813 (+4)
8. Auburn (10-1): 812 (+1)
9. Oregon (9-2): 804 (-5)
10. Clemson (10-1): 776 (-2)
11. Stanford (9-2): 770 (-1)
12. Oklahoma State (10-1): 765 (+7)
13. Michigan State (10-1): 753 (+1)
14. South Carolina (9-2): 725 (-1)
15. Oklahoma (9-2): 722 (+2)
16. UCF (9-1): 710 (+6)
17. USC (9-3): 709 (+6)
18. Northern Illinois (11-0): 709 (+7)
19. Virginia Tech (7-4): 706 (+1)
20. Louisville (10-1): 699 (-4)
21. UCLA (8-3): 696 (-6)
22. Washington (7-4): 695 (+4)
23. LSU (8-3): 694 (+5)
24. Texas A&M (8-3): 690 (-12)
25. Mississippi (7-4): 681 (-7)
26. Georgia (7-4): 665 (-2)
27. Notre Dame (8-3): 661 (+5)
28. East Carolina (9-2): 660 (-1)
29. Fresno State (10-0): 660 (=)
30. BYU (7-4): 657 (-9)
31. Georgia Tech (7-4): 633 (-1)
32. Duke (9-2): 617 (+4)
33. Arizona (7-4): 616 (+8)
34. Miami (FL) (8-3): 611 (=)
35. Michigan (7-4): 595 (-4)
36. Iowa (7-4): 595 (+4)
37. North Carolina (6-5): 593 (+12)
38. Nebraska (8-3): 592 (-3)
39. Texas (7-3): 592 (-2)
40. Houston (7-4): 580 (-7)
41. Minnesota (8-3): 562 (-3)
42. Ball State (9-2): 546 (+3)
43. Mississippi State (5-6): 545 (-1)
44. Marshall (8-3): 544 (+8)
45. Utah State (7-4): 536 (+8)
46. Texas Tech (7-4): 532 (+1)
47. Pittsburgh (6-5): 532 (+3)
48. North Texas (7-4): 528 (-9)
49. Toledo (7-4): 528 (-6)
50. Boise State (7-4): 526 (-6)
51. Bowling Green (8-3): 522 (+10)
52. Vanderbilt (7-4): 519 (+3)
53. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-2): 518 (-2)
54. Rice (8-3): 508 (-8)
55. Cincinnati (9-2): 508 (+14)
56. Boston College (7-4): 507 (+6)
57. Penn State (6-5): 505 (=)
58. Kansas State (6-5): 503 (-4)
59. Utah (4-7): 490 (-11)
60. Washington State (6-5): 480 (+8)
61. Buffalo (8-3): 474 (+4)
62. Navy (7-4): 472 (-3)
63. Indiana (4-7): 465 (+4)
64. Arkansas State (7-4): 457 (-4)
65. UTSA (6-5): 455 (+9)
66. Tennessee (4-7): 453 (-3)
67. Oregon State (6-5): 452 (-9)
68. Maryland (6-5): 447 (-4)
69. Florida Atlantic (5-6): 445 (+3)
70. Syracuse (5-6): 437 (-4)
71. Florida (4-7): 425 (-15)
72. Northwestern (4-7): 425 (-2)
73. Middle Tennessee (7-4): 425 (-2)
74. Western Kentucky (7-4): 422 (+6)
75. Tulane (7-4): 417 (=)
76. TCU (4-7): 379 (+1)
77. San Jose State (5-6): 363 (+2)
78. Rutgers (5-5): 361 (-2)
79. San Diego State (7-4): 359 (+7)
80. Memphis (3-7): 358 (+4)
81. UNLV (6-5): 351 (+7)
82. North Carolina State (3-8): 348 (+3)
83. Colorado State (6-6): 341 (-5)
84. Ohio (6-5): 336 (-11)
85. Wake Forest (4-7): 335 (-4)
86. Colorado (4-7): 333 (-3)
87. Illinois (4-7): 321 (+7)
88. West Virginia (4-7): 316 (-1)
89. Arkansas (3-8): 315 (-7)
90. Virginia (2-9): 314 (+3)
91. Nevada (4-7): 311 (+1)
92. SMU (5-5): 305 (+3)
93. Old Dominion (8-4): 286 (-4)
94. Troy (5-6): 283 (+3)
95. Louisiana-Monroe (5-6): 275 (-5)
96. Akron (4-7): 274 (+2)
97. South Alabama (4-6): 272 (+4)
98. Texas State (6-5): 269 (-7)
99. Tulsa (3-8): 253 (+4)
100. Wyoming (5-6): 242 (=)
101. Kent State (4-8): 239 (+7)
102. Kentucky (2-9): 232 (-3)
103. Kansas (3-8): 220 (-7)
104. Central Michigan (5-6): 214 (=)
105. Army (3-7): 207 (-3)
106. Iowa State (2-9): 196 (+4)
107. Purdue (1-10): 177 (-2)
108. UAB (2-9): 171 (+4)
109. California (1-11): 167 (-3)
110. South Florida (2-8): 161 (-3)
111. New Mexico (3-8): 158 (-2)
112. Hawai'i (0-11): 106 (+2)
113. Louisiana Tech (4-7): 101 (-2)
114. Air Force (2-9): 94 (+1)
115. Idaho (1-10): 93 (+1)
116. Temple (1-10): 79 (-3)
117. Connecticut (1-9): 71 (+1)
118. UTEP (2-9): 58 (-1)
119. New Mexico State (1-10): 35 (+1)
120. Western Michigan (1-10): 33 (+1)
121. Eastern Michigan (2-9): 12 (-2)
122. Massachusetts (1-10): -12 (=)
123. Southern Mississippi (0-11): -23 (=)
124. Georgia State (0-11): -65 (+1)
125. Florida International (1-10): -75 (-1)
126. Miami (OH) (0-11): -120 (=)

CONFERENCE POWER RANKINGS:

1. SEC: 604
2. PAC 12: 589
3. ACC: 559
4. BIG 10: 557
5. BIG 12: 511
6. AAC: 383
7. INDEPENDENTS: 344
8. MOUNTAIN WEST: 337
9. C-USA: 319
10. SUN BELT: 304
11. MAC: 289

Moving On Up:

#18 Northern Illinois. Despite having not lost a regular season game since September 1st of last year, the Huskies had been languishing down in the high 30s all season. Even though their stats were there, and no one questioned whether Jordan Lynch was a legitimate threat, they hadn't really proven themselves; their best wins were over #36 Iowa (by 3) and #96 Akron (by only 7). So, an observer - or a ratings system - could be skeptical of both this squad and a ridiculous BCS system that put them anywhere near the top 20. This squad finally encountered some tests over the last two weeks, and proved up to the task, beating #42 Ball State by 21 and #49 Toledo by 18. Their strength-of-schedule is still 7th-worst in the country, but they've at least done what has been asked of them. They won't be taking down any SEC Champions, but at least now we can be pretty sure they're better than a .500 SEC squad.

#37 North Carolina. In the inaugural Ruby Rankings of the year, UNC was sitting at 77th, with a 1-5 record (they were, at least, the highest-ranked 1-win team). Since then, they've rattled off five in a row, with wins over solid #56 Boston College and #47 Pittsburgh squads, the former of which looks a lot better now than they did when these guys played (BC itself has won four straight). The Tar Heels dropped an 80-spot on FBS newcomer #93 Old Dominion this past week to ensure bowl eligibility in what looked at one point like a lost season. If they can beat #32 Duke next week, they'll be among the teams you'd least like to face in a bowl game.

Sliding On Down:

#24 Texas A&M. These guys didn't just get beaten by #23 LSU. They got smacked by LSU. The Tigers had only lost back-to-back games once under Les Miles, and they kept it that way, dropping the Aggies a whopping 12 spots. Take note that spots 16 through 24 are very tightly bunched, and a couple different bounces could've seen A&M settling in the mid-teens. An 8-4 campaign would be a failure for Texas A&M, but they'll need to beat #6 Missouri to keep that from happening.

#71 Florida. Boy, did the steam go out of this weekend's match-up between the Gators and #1 Florida State with the latter's loss to FCS foe Georgia Southern. Listen. It was going to be over by the end of the first quarter, but without Florida having a bowl bid to ostensibly play for, it might be over by the end of the first play. This caps off the worst 6-game stretch, I think it's safe to say, in Florida Gators history. Now, Florida's still got an SEC defense, allowing only 19.6 PPG (good for 16th in the nation, right between Missouri and #16 UCF), but their offense has scored an abysmal 19.9 PPG (good for 15th-worst in the nation, right between #113 Louisiana Tech and #121 Eastern Michigan). Yikes. That. Is. Embarrassing.

#84 Ohio. The Bobcats have a nagging feeling that they've been here before. Last year, the Bobcats were 7-0 and limped to the finish, dropping 4 of their last 5 to finish 8-4. This year, the Bobcats were at least a respectable 6-2, but have lost their last 3 games (to #61 Buffalo, #51 Bowling Green, and most recently #101 Kent State) by a combined 107 points. This has dropped Ohio a full 26 spots in the ranking, and if they lose Friday's tilt with #122 Massachusetts, they'll be among the teams you'd most like to face in a bowl game.